--HSBC lifts 2012 silver forecast to $34/oz from $32/oz; 2013 forecast to $34/oz from $30/oz
--Bank says renewed investor demand key to elevated prices
--Says it isn't unreservedly bullish
--Introduces new 2014 forecast at 28/oz
--Long-term forecast holds at $25/oz
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- HSBC has lifted its silver price forecasts for 2012 and 2013 amid expectations that strong bar and coin investment demand, together with growing interest in silver exchange-traded funds, will push the market higher, the bank said late Wednesday.
It now expects the silver market to average $34 a troy ounce next year, and $32/oz the year after--both of which are a $2/oz increase on HSBC's earlier forecasts.
The spot silver market has experienced sharp moves in price this year, rising as high as $49.831/oz in April, before falling as low as $26.100/oz in September as macro economic concerns weighed on industry-linked metals.
"Silver prices [in the coming years] will reflect the interplay of many factors. The single biggest bullish factor, in our view, will be renewed investor demand," analyst James Steel said.
HBSC is forecasting ETF demand to absorb 50 million ounces of silver next year, after a net disinvestment of 15 million ounces in 2011. Demand for silver investment coins and bars should also continue at historically high levels, the bank said.
"Coin and bar demand is a growing component of the silver market" Steel said. "We believe that demand for these products reflects widespread retail investor concerns about inflation, economic uncertainty, and fiscal profligacy, European sovereign-debt risks, and geopolitical tensions."
Demand will likely remain sensitive to price levels, though, and it is thought that any rallies above $40/oz will weigh on purchases.
HSBC has meanwhile introduced a 2014 forecast, at $28/oz. It has left its long term forecast--a five-year view on the market--unchanged at $25/oz.
"We are raising our silver price forecasts for 2012 and 2013, but we aren't unreservedly bullish," Steel said.
Strong growth in mine production in particular is expected to weigh on prices in the long term. HSBC is forecasting a market surplus of 138 million ounces for 2012.
"The impact of an increase in investor demand will be offset by a continued surge in physical supply, in our view," Steel said. "Mine supply is scheduled to increase strongly through 2012... [and] scrap supplies are slated to grow as companies focus on recycling efforts."
At 1030 GMT, spot silver traded at $33.185/oz.
Silvercorp emerges from short and distort saga awash with cash
BeantwoordenVerwijderenFrik Els | November 8, 2011
Silvercorp Metals on Tuesday reported revenue of $62.1 million for its second quarter, up 71% from the same period last year. Cash flow from operations hit a record $35.2 million, or $0.20 per share, up 140% from 2011 while net income of $18.5 million, or $0.11 per share, showed a 49% increase.
Silver production of 1.4 million ounces rose a disappointing 4% but gold production shot up to 2,516 ounces. Silvercorp said it continues to maintain its low cost producer status with a cash production cost per ounce of silver of negative $4.55.
A report by the forensic accounting arm of KPMG released two weeks ago showed no truth to allegations of $1 billion in accounting fraud at the company which was first alleged on September 2 by shortsellers that had built up a massive position in the stock.
The counter ended Tuesday slightly down at $9.62 ahead of the results announcement. Shareholders who held onto their Silvercorp stock during the short and distort saga are now able to show a handsome profit for their loyalty.
Silvercorp was valued at $8.23.share on September 1 and during September trade volumes rocketed, intra-day swings reached 22% and at one point shell-shocked owners were down a net 30%.
How "big money" could push silver 54% higher in 2012
BeantwoordenVerwijderen12/5/2011 12:11:11 AM | Matt Badiali, DailyWealth
Precious metal just bounced off its most pessimistic reading in four years
The big money is tiptoeing back into silver.
Last month, commodity trading advisors, pool operators, and hedge funds – the "big money" – weren't interested in silver AT ALL...
But as they move back into the market, silver prices could soar. Let me show you what I'm talking about...
Jason Goepfert created SentimenTrader, a service that tracks investor sentiment toward various asset classes. According to Jason, silver just bounced off its most pessimistic reading in four years.
The so-called "commitment of non-commercial traders" hit 10,352. That's incredibly low. The last time sentiment numbers were that low was in August 2007. Six months later, the price of silver was 59% higher. It rose from $12 per ounce to $19 per ounce.
I went all the way back to 2002 and found that silver sentiment bottomed near 10,000 six times... On average, the price of silver rose 33% in the next six months and 54% over the next year. This chart shows the last four times it bottomed...
Here's how the silver price performed after each of the last four times silver sentiment bottomed out..
Date Low Price High Price Period Return
Bottom No. 1 8/28/2007 $12.07 $20.15 6 Months 67%
Bottom No. 2 10/21/2008 $9.36 $47.25 12 Months 405%
Bottom No. 3 6/28/2011 $33.88 $43.26 2 Months 28%
Bottom No. 4 10/18/2011 $31.38 ? ? ?
The best return came after Bottom No. 2, which coincided with the U.S. banking/credit crisis. Silver soared an eye-popping 405%, including its parabolic rise in 2010.
As those numbers indicate, silver is one of the most volatile assets in the world. Over the last year, silver has seen massive price swings, including an 81% rally and two 30% drops. That forced many traders to liquidate their silver holdings in order to meet emergency short-term requirements. (Plus, the debacle at commodity broker MF Global has scared many folks out of the market.)
But the long-term drivers of gold and silver's up trends are still in place. Enormous and growing Asian economies like China and India are getting richer... and they have deep cultural affinities for precious metals. Plus, the Western world has lived way beyond its means for a long time... the debts and liabilities it has taken on can only be paid back with devalued, debased money. This is bullish for "real money" assets like gold and silver.
With sentiment so negative toward silver (and just beginning to turn back up), it's a great time to take a position in this long-term bull market.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Matt Badiali, DailyWealth
Silver Wheaton Sees 45% Upside, Trumping Potash And Goldcorp
BeantwoordenVerwijderenMarch 21, 2012 | 1 comment | includes: GG, POT, SLW
I look at three firms in the basic materials sector. While I am more bullish about gold than fertilizer, I anticipate Goldcorp (GG) to underperform Potash (POT). At the same time, I expect significant returns for Silver Wheaton (SLW), which is involved in gold and silver production, and see the company outperforming both Goldcorp and Potash.
My sentiments are echoed by the Street's "strong buy" recommendation on Silver Wheaton. On the other hand, Goldcorp is the safest among the three stocks, given that it is 50% less volatile than the broader market. All the ratings are sourced from the NASDAQ.
Silver Wheaton
Silver Wheaton is rated a "strong buy" and trades at a respective 25.1x and 14.8x past and forward earnings, with a dividend yield of 1.1%. Consensus estimates for Silver Wheaton's EPS are that it will grow by 111.7% to $1.72, and then by 46.5% and 2.8% more in the following years. Assuming the multiple drops to 19.5x, and 2012 EPS is $2.46, the intrinsic value of the stock would be $47.97, implying 45% upside.
Since Silver Wheaton's contracts are flexible, it is less vulnerable to input inflation than its peers. The Yauliyacu mine is a significant catalyst and takes away some of the attention from Goldcorp's production expansion at Penasquito.
Potash
Potash is rated a "buy" and trades at a respective 12.8x and 11.6x past and forward earnings, with a dividend yield of 1.2%. Consensus estimates for Potash' EPS forecast that it will grow by 5.4% to $3.70 in 2012, and then by 4.6% and 3.4% in the following two years. Assuming a multiple of 14x and a conservative 2013 EPS of $3.84, the rough intrinsic value of the stock is $53.76, implying 19% upside.
During the fourth quarter, the company experienced several operational challenges. Average realized prices modestly declined off the preceding quarter, as offshore imports faced greater pressure. It was, overall, a poor close to the year, despite sales increasing 31%. Going forward, I anticipate greater volumes and pricing improvements around the second quarter for potash, nitrogen, and phosphate.
Goldcorp
Goldcorp is rated a "buy" and trades at a respective 20.1x and 13.1x past and forward earnings, with a dividend yield of 1.2%. Consensus estimates for Goldcorp's EPS forecast that it will grow by 20.6%, and then by 37.2% over the next two years. Assuming a multiple of 18x and a conservative FY2012 EPS of $2.63, the rough intrinsic value of the stock is $47.70, implying just 8.4% upside.
The company is expanding production in Penasquito, and I anticipate gold production of around 11M oz versus 616M oz for silver. Given the Grasberg strike at Freeport (FCX), the industry's value potential is being restrained. With a beta of 0.5, unfortunately, Goldcorp does not have the technical support, in my view, to post meaningful returns in a full recovery. I recommend an investment in the firm mainly for those fearful of a double-dip.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/447751-silver-wheaton-sees-45-upside-trumping-potash-and-goldcorp?source=yahoo
Zilver gaat een gouden toekomst tegemoet
BeantwoordenVerwijderenPost Date 8 april 2013 | Post Author Harm van Wijk |
Zilver gaat een gouden toekomst tegemoetZilver is dit jaar verder in waarde gedaald en staat nu net boven een zeer belangrijk steunniveau. Zilver gaat een gouden toekomst tegemoet, onder voorwaarde natuurlijk dat deze belangrijke steun stand houdt.
Lange termijn stijgende trend
De prijs van zilver staat op een zeer interessant niveau. Vanaf $ 26 is de prijs van zilver sinds 2011 diverse malen opgeveerd. In het lange termijn plaatje is een correctie te zien binnen de lange termijn stijgende trend.
Top rond $ 50
Mocht de steunzone het toch begeven, dan krijgt de dalende trend uit 2011 een nieuwe impuls. De koers van zilver lijkt echter opnieuw op te veren boven dit steunniveau. Mocht de stijging doorzetten, dan kan een nieuwe aanval op de top rond $ 40 of zelfs $ 50 worden ingezet.
Cyprus
Gezien het confisqueren van spaargeld in Cyprus, is het misschien niet zo’n gek idee om (een deel) van het spaargeld om te zetten in klinkende munt. De zilveren guldens die tussen 1954 en 1967 werden geslagen bevatten4,68 grampuur zilver. Voor iedere5 kilozilver zou je dus ongeveer 1000 zilveren guldens kunnen slaan. Hiervoor betaal je op dit moment € 3380,70, omgerekend dus bijna 7500 gulden.
Productiekosten zilveren gulden
De productiekosten van 1 zilveren gulden uit 1967 zou dus nu rond 7,5 gulden liggen. De jaarlijkse stijging van 4,31% over de afgelopen 46 jaar is aanzienlijk hoger dan de rente op een spaarrekening. Over de afgelopen 10 jaar is de prijs van zilver met 555% gestegen, dus het is zeker geen gelijkmatige stijging.
Cyclusbodem
Door de daling sinds 2011 lijkt een nieuwe cyclusbodem in de kwartaalgrafiek in de maak. Ook in de maandgrafiek, weekgrafiek en daggrafiek zijn tekenen van bodemvorming zichtbaar. In combinatie met het belangrijke steunniveau rond $ 26 zou dit wel eens een gouden kans kunnen zijn om in te stappen of posities in zilver uit te breiden.
Geldpersen
Reserve Bank Credit
Niet in de laatste plaats natuurlijk door de geldpersen die in Japan, Amerika en Europa op volle toeren draaien. Kijk bijvoorbeeld eens naar de ontwikkeling van de omvang van de uitstaande kredieten van de Amerikaanse Federal Reserve Bank. Rond 1995 stond er circa 400 miljard dollar uit. Op dit moment is dit opgelopen tot bijna 3200 miljard dollar.