maandag 31 januari 2011

US Energy: olie en moly voor een prikkie

U.S. Energy Corporation: An Oil and Molybdenum Play
While covering companies that have exposure to oil in the Bakken Shale, such as Brigham (BEXP), Northern Oil and Gas (NOG), and GeoResources (GEOI), I have come across another little gem, U.S. Energy Corporation (USEG). Although I love this company's oil position in the Bakken, it has some added exposure to molybdenum. Strange bedfellows they may be, they have exciting prospects with different interests within the corporation. Formed in 1966 in Riverton, Wyoming, USEG has positions in the Bakken and Three Forks formations with areas in the Gulf Coast. It also has interests in molybdenum, geothermal and real estate.
 U.S. Energy is trying to maximize the value of its existing assets. When looking at its oil assets, one thing stood out: It has partnered with Brigham to drill 18 wells. Brigham is arguably the best shale driller in the Bakken. I know I may get some hate mail on this one, but it has done well and has been a consistant performer in this area.
U.S. Energy plans to do more in the short term. It is going to keep working with partners in its onshore Gulf Coast production; it currently is partnered with Petroquest (PQ), Yuma Exploration, and Houston Energy (HUSA). It successfully increased its Gulf production from 500 boe/d to 600 boe/d, and is currently at work with partners to drill new wells and further increase production of oil. To help fund these wells, it has opened a credit facility for funds up to $75 million. U.S. Energy is also showing interest in acquiring more JVs in the near term.
Long term plans are to work with Brigham on 90 gross wells (20-26 net). Looking to 2013 and beyond, this company has hinted it is interested in acquiring an exploration and production oil and gas company. This timeframe also includes its monetizing of geothermal and real estate projects, plus realizing the value of its molybdenum projects.
As of October of 2010, U.S. Energy has significant value to its current projects. It also has a net of approximately 800 boe/d net from its wells with Brigham. In Louisiana and the Texas Gulf Coast, its wells with Petroquest, it is averaging 450 boe/d, while its wells with Houston Energy are averaging 50 boe/d. In October of last year, U.S. Energy was averaging 1300 boe/d of daily production, with 65% of this being oil. At the end of 2009, it had 1.1 MMboe reserves, with 75% being oil.
U.S. Energy's contract with Brigham seems to be a profitable one. Not only is it positioned in a good area, it is also positioned with a good partner. It currently has a participation agreement to drill 15 wells. Brigham is to operate and drill wells, but U.S. Energy will have WI. U.S. Energy will have 19,200 gross acres and 5,500 net acres with respect to the first 15 wells. After pooled payout of initial wells, Brigham will back in for WI of initial wells only. Of the six initial well spaces, Brigham gets 35% and U.S. Energy gets 65% interest of Brigham's original working.
After combined payout, Brigham's WI will be 57.75% with U.S. Energy having 42.25% The next four spacing units will have Brigham getting 50% WI and U.S. Energy getting 50% of Brigham's original working interest. After combined payout, Brigham backs in for 35% of U.S. Energy's WI. The final five spaces have Brigham at 50% WI and U.S. Energy 50% of Brigham's original working interest. After initial well, final payout WI Brigham backs in for 27.7% of U.S. Energy's WI. Each 1,280 spacing unit may provide up to three wells in the Bakken, plus up to three in Three Forks, for drilling opportunities of up to 90 gross wells. Subsequent infill development of WI will be Brigham 64% and U.S. Energy 36%.
The Bakken does have some issues. Currently, take away capacity is difficult, with the oil mostly taken out by train and truck. This is not only expensive, but does not meet the demands that will soon be needed in this area. The Enbridge portal link project and Butt pipeline expansion should be online this quarter, and will help with getting an ever increasing supply of oil out of the Bakken.
The onshore Gulf Coast region has a partnership with Petroquest, and its two wells are currently producing a net of 450 Boe/d. The two wells with Yuma E&P are being evaluated as of October of last year. Its last partner, Houston Energy, has two wells in the Permian currently netting 50 Boe/d.
The wildcard for this company is its position with respect to molybdenum. There are a possible 800 million pounds of molybdenum in its acreages. Before U.S. Energy had this area, the previous company had put $160 million into it. U.S. Energy took over this space and is continuing where the last company left off. To give an idea of the value, from 1997 to 2003 the price of molybdenum was about $10,000 per ton. In June of 2005, the price peaked at $103,000 per ton, but settled down and was at $30,000 per ton in August of 2005. In August of 2008, a $400 million contract was signed with Thompson Creek Metals (TC) for the mining of the molybdenum. Thompson Creek will receive a 75% interest in the deal for the $400 million it spent.
U.S. Energy has seen quarterly revenue growth increase by 404% year over year. It has $40.77 in cash and currrent debt of $800,000. U.S. Energy is estimated to grow 115.8%, with 50% growth expected next year.
U.S. Energy has picked very good partners to help it drill or mine its commodities.

zaterdag 22 januari 2011

Tethys Petroleum succesvol in Centraal Azië



AT A GLANCE
The first independent in all three Central Asian countries in the oil and gas sector
Focused on high quality projects in proven basins in Central Asia
Management team with over 20 years of experience in the area with a proven track record
The portfolio offers a combination of discovered reserves to produce and provide near-term cash flow, and a large exploration portfolio for upside
Currently gas production into major transcontinental trunk line in Kazakhstan
Exciting new oil exploration discovery that is a potential company maker in Kazakhstan
Further upside in exploration surrounding the oil discovery
25-year Production Sharing Contract for the large Bokhtar Area in Tajikistan
Oil and gas field rehabilitation in Tajikistan to yield early cash flow
Tajik exploration programme underway in area with very high potential
Producing oil in Uzbekistan and introducing new production enhancement techniques
Potential to acquire other projects in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan based on prior success and fulfilling commitments

http://www.tethyspetroleum.com/tethys/index.action

vrijdag 7 januari 2011

Goeroes die alles zo goed weten (maar niet heus!)

Societyfeestjes


Nouriel Roubini


‘De S&P500 kan naar 600 punten zakken. Misschien zelfs naar 500 punten.’ Maart 2009
‘Ik zie overal enorme zeepbellen. Vooral in grondstoffen en in aandelen uit groeilanden.’ Oktober 2009
‘Wie dit jaar in aandelen belegt, zal geen geld verdienen.’
- Februari 2010
Roubini en Faber vergaarden wereldfaam omdat ze de kredietcrisis voorspelden. Sinds het uitbreken van die crisis eind 2008 reizen beide economen de wereld rond om als duurbetaalde Dr. Dooms hun onheilstijdingen te verkondigen aan bankiers, mediahuizen en dies meer. Roubini en Faber zijn gemeengoed geworden. De eerste laat zich als excentrieke feestganger gewillig fotograferen op wilde societyfeestjes. Faber kreeg bij zijn jongste doortocht in België een cameraploeg van het VRT-programma ‘Ter zake’ op zijn dak.
Maar wat moet u als belegger met de profetieën van beide heerschappen? Valt er geld te verdienen door hun adviezen blindelings te volgen? Wij draaien de klok meer dan twee jaar terug. Naar oktober 2008. De zakenbank Lehman Brothers was net tegen de vlakte gegaan, de financiële markten zetten zich schrap voor een duizelingwekkende rit omlaag.
De wereld luistert wanneer Roubini in oktober waarschuwt dat de wereld zijn borst moet natmaken voor een recessie van twee jaar. In december, na enkele uitzonderlijk barre beursmaanden, volgt de waarschuwing dat de beurzen nog eens 20 procent kunnen zakken. Roubini blijkt te somber. Ja, de wereld verzeilt in de diepste recessie sinds de Tweede Wereldoorlog. Maar die duurt geen twee jaar, en de beurzen bereiken al in het voorjaar van 2009 hun bodem.
Het is niet de laatste keer dat Roubini te zwartgallig is. ‘De S&P500 kan naar 600 punten zakken’, zegt de econoom in maart 2009. ‘Mogelijk zelfs 500. De recessie kan tot eind 2010 duren.’ De beleggers die het advies van Roubini volgden, misten een van de sterkste beursrally’s in de geschiedenis.

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commentaar: Roubini is een eendagsvlinder, die rijk en beroemd 
geworden is dankzij de hypothekencrisis.

Het tegendraadje van de Tegenpartij



Zeven redenen om bearish te zijn

WOENSDAG 5 JANUARI 2011, 16:36 uur | 2887 keer gelezen

Door Joost van Kuppeveld
AMSTERDAM (Belegger.nl) – Beleggers hebben er zin in dit jaar. Dankzij een forse eindejaarsrally eindigden de beurzen met een dikke plus en voor 2011 zijn de verwachtingen hooggespannen. Zo liepen in Het Financieele Dagblad de voorspellingen van beleggingsprofessionals voor de AEX uiteen van 7 tot 20 procent in de plus. De website iex.nl registreerde het hoogste vertrouwen in de beurs sinds 2006. Gelukkig zijn er altijd contrarians. Claus Vogt, hoofd research van de Berliner Effektenbank, is zo’n tegendraadse belegger. Hij vond zeven redenen om juist negatief te zijn en publiceerde deze in een rapport.
http://www.belegger.nl/nieuws/98926/Zeven_redenen_om_bearish_te_zijn







zondag 2 januari 2011

GMX Resources: als aardgas weer gaat stijgen is dit het beste aandeel



GMX Resources Set to Profit From Natural Gas Rebound
by: Charlie Anderson
January 02, 2011 | about: GMXR
Oil has performed about as well as the U.S. stock market has since the bottom in March of 2009. A rise in oil prices is often followed by renewed interest in renewable energy sources, like natural gas. Not this time around; natural gas prices are down around 50% over the period previously cited. With new demand from the Middle East and from the southern United States, it would seem that natural gas is the obvious source of energy that should be put to use in this situation. Supply is high and growing, and this has weighed heavily on natural gas prices, but demand should pick up, which will lead to a rise in prices. In the meantime, looking for natural gas stocks I look for value companies with high margins and good competitive positions.
This is where GMX Resources (GMXR) comes in. Trading at a Price-to-Book ratio of 0.7, the market has seriously discounted GMXR. There is a reason: earnings per share is negative. Later, I will dig deeper into the numbers, and show why. Meanwhile, if we look at other measures that don't take into account GMX's massive capital expenditures, there is a 65% discount to the deserved price. This has been picked up on by funds, and there has been a 20% increase in ownership by value funds. This is all combined with very cheap long-term technicals.
Stewardship at GMX is good. Around 65% of executive pay comes in the form of equity compensation in the form of stock. GMX has made huge efforts to cut costs in the last few years. Despite laying off 1/3 of its workforce, production is up 10% year over year. The executive team owns enough stock to definitively align their interests with shareholder's. A long-term incentive plan instituted in 2008 ensures that this will continue.
Assets in the Haynesville and Bossier shale of East Texas are where GMX is centered. This area is characterized by lower drilling costs, but also by lower overall returns than across state lines in Louisiana. According to a study by Morgan Stanley, the Haynesville shale has the lowest cost to produce a 10% return of any natural gas source in the study. This has translated into great (gross) profit margins for GMX Resources, which are some of the best in the industry, roughly equal to industry darling Range Resources (RRC).
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http://seekingalpha.com/article/244364-gmx-resources-set-to-profit-from-natural-gas-rebound?source=yahoo

zaterdag 1 januari 2011

Canaccord Watch List 2011

Canaccord Genuity 2011 watch list
                    
Company Name Ticker Exchange price 10 Dec analyst/Associate

1 Alhambra Resources Ltd.       ALH TSX-V       $0.99 NC
2 Almaden Minerals Ltd.         AMM TSX         $4.49 WZ/AM
3 Auryx Gold Corp.              AYX TSX         $0.94 NC
4 Batero Gold Corp.             BAT TSX-V       $2.58 NC
5 Bowmore Exploration Ltd.      BOW TSX-V       $0.58 WZ/GG
6 Dorato Resources Inc.         DRI TSX-V       $1.28 WZ/AM
7 Edgewater Exploration Ltd.    EDW TSX-V       $1.29 NC
8 Full Metals Minerals Ltd.     FMM TSX-V       $0.29 WZ/AM
9 Goldgroup Mining Inc.         GGA TSX         $1.27 NC
10 Indicator Minerals Inc.      IME TSX-V       $0.13 WZ/AM
11 International PBX Ventures   PBX TSX-V       $0.30 WZ/AM
12 Iron Creek Capital Corp.     IRN TSX-V       $0.96 WZ/AM
13 Mansfield Minerals Inc.      MDR TSX-V       $2.47 WZ/AM
14 Newstrike Capital Inc.       NES TSX-V       $0.69 WZ/AM
15 North Country Gold Corp.     NCG TSX-V       $1.20 WZ/AM
16 Polar Star Mining Corp       PSR TSX         $1.95 WZ/AM
17 Queenston Mining Inc.        QMI TSX         $5.48 WZ/AM
18 Riverstone Resources Inc.    RVS TSX-V       $0.72 NC
19 Rockgate Capital Corp.       RGT TSX         $1.98 NC/GG
20 Sulliden Gold Corporation    SUE TSX         $2.26 NC/GG
21 Sunridge Gold Corp.          SGC TSX-V       $1.30 NC
22 Trelawney Mining Exploration TRR TSX-V       $2.64 WZ/AM

Source: Canaccord Genuity, Capital IQ

http://serverside1.com/CanaccordDec18-2010.pdf