Koptekst verwijderd wegens copyrights.
Draadje is verder normaal leesbaar.
donderdag 9 december 2010
ATPG: vroeg of laat gaat het gebeuren..........
Koptekst verwijderd wegens copyrights.
Draadje is verder normaal leesbaar.
Abonneren op:
Reacties posten (Atom)
deel 2:
BeantwoordenVerwijderen-----------------------------------------
I wrote in late August about a short squeeze coming:
The stock price then was $11 and we are now at $15. I believe the good times for shareholders are just beginning. As I’ve said many times, the big spending for ATP in the Gulf of Mexico to put in the pipelines and $700 million floating production unit is done. Now every dollar spent goes towards drilling a well, and
that money quickly turns into increased cash flow and production increases.
50% of the float is still short. ATP has more financing than it needs with the recent ATP Titan deal. And on the very near horizon (within one year) for ATP are the following wells (things could get very
interesting quickly):
MC754 – Expected to add 4,000 BOE in Q4 (already drilled)
Second Mirage well – 7,000 BOE per day
First Morgus well – 7,000 BOE per day
Gomez well at MC711 – 5,000 BOE per day
Second Gomez well at MC711 – 5,000 BOE per day
The lifting of the drilling moratorium will also likely be a big catalyst for ATP. I suppose that is obvious given they have another 30,000 BOE per day of production coming from locations where 100% of the
required infrastructure is already in place.
Before the BP spill, ATP was trading at $23 with production at less than 20,000 BOE per day and no clear plan for financing future projects.
Now production is over 30,000 and financing for the indefinite future is in place with the Titan monetization and this massive cash flow increase. The share price however is $15.
So there is a 50% upside just to get back to pre-BP spill levels, and those levels were not expensive.
The BP spill delayed the production ramp up, but it is here now. At over 30,000 BOE per day and the MC754 well being added this quarter, ATP will have tripled its 2010 exit production run rate.
With ATP's much improved and still rapidly growing production, more than enough financing and 50% of the float still short, there likely aren't many stocks poised for a more rapid move upwards.
Disclosure: Long ATPG
------------------------------------------
ATP Oil eyes exploring in Israel - report
BeantwoordenVerwijderenATPG.O
$16.15
JERUSALEM | Sun Dec 26, 2010 5:38am EST
Dec 26 (Reuters) - ATP Oil & Gas Corp (ATPG.O) is seeking to enter Israel's growing natural gas industry, the Globes financial daily reported on its website Sunday.
The newspaper said Houston-based ATP is looking to buy one-third of the rights and licence to the Mira and Sarah prospects and one-half of the rights to the Daniel and Shimshon sites.
Globes said ATP, which mainly operates in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, will make its decision to enter the Israeli market after the Finance Ministry decides on its new taxation for natural resources.
-----------------------------------------
Een vreemd verhaal c.q. gerucht.
Ik hecht er niet veel waarde aan, ATPG heeft z'n handen vol en koopt gewoonlijk slechts koopjes die bij de bestaande projecten passen.
Dockwise maakte vrijdag bekend voor $95 mln aan contracten te hebben binnengehaald voor deels al uitgevoerde opdrachten en door het omzetten van intentieverklaringen in nieuwe opdrachten.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenDockwise-dochter Dockwise Shipping heeft voor verschillende bedrijven zwaartransportopdrachten binnengehaald en deels al gerealiseerd, met een totale contractwaarde van $30 mln.
Door de omzetting van intentieverklaringen in definitieve contracten gaat Dockwise voor Chevron USA inc en voor ATP Cheviot transporten realiseren, onder meer met het nieuwe zwaartransportschip T-O. Met het realiseren van deze definitieve contracten haalt Dockwise in totaal $65 mln binnen.
ATP Oil and Gas Corp. (ATPG US) advanced 4.5 percent to $17.68. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement said regulators won’t require new environment reviews for 13 companies forced to suspend work on deepwater oil wells after the Gulf of Mexico spill. ATP was one of the companies involved.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenIs ATPG on the cusp of acquiring these permits? Further clarification over the next few days, either at investor presentations already scheduled or through a company press release, should be forthcoming. When ATPG increases production to 42 mboe/d and becomes ocf minus cap ex positive, investors will allow the company to “move” back to Houston, and it will no longer be a “Missouri” stock. Share prices should then have a realistic opportunity of exceeding $28 - $30, up from its current $17.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenIf, upon receiving additional clarification, the road to higher production is not on the short-term horizon, it could be a cold, snowy winter in Bragg City. The next few days and weeks will be quite interesting, and potentially quite profitable for longer-term investors.
As always, investors should conduct their own due diligence, should develop their own understanding of these potential opportunities, and should determine how it may fit their current financial situation.
Disclosure: I am long ATPG.
Additional disclosure: I have been a shareholder since 2007
About the author: George Fisher
Tired of Storm Risks, ATP Oil and Gas Expands Into Offshore Israel
BeantwoordenVerwijderenOnce drilling resumes ATP has 4 large wells that will come on production quickly due to already having put the necessary infrastructure in place. So the company just needs to finish drilling them and tie them into the infrastructure. In the Deepwater where the prizes are large, the infrastructure is by far the most expensive part of a project.
Two of the wells are at Telemark, which will complete ATP’s initial development plan for the project. ATP currently has two wells on production at Telemark. The first well at block Atwater 63 was a bit of a disappointment, producing at 4,000 barrels of oil equivalent. The second well at the Mirage block, however was a great success with initial production over 12,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
The next two wells are expected to be rougly 7,000 barrels of oil equivalent each per day. This means that the capacity on the ATP Titan will likely be hit without maximizing production from the fourth well. Both of the two remaining Telemark wells are actually pre-drilled to 13,000 feet and therefore much of the drilling work toward a total depth of 20,000 feet is already done.
The other two wells waiting for drilling permits are at ATP’s Gomez Hub and also are expected to be 5,000 barrels-plus per day. With current company production at 25,000 boe/day you can see how important these four wells are to ATP as they alone will almost double ATP’s production.
As a shareholder I haven’t been too worried about the exact timing of a drilling resumption. I felt that it would happen at some point this year as common sense would have to win out eventually. There have been 50,000 plus wells drilled in the Gulf of Mexico in American waters and we had one BP spill. Clearly this is something that can be done safely and anyone with their head out of the sand is aware that the United States needs as much domestic oil production as it can get. Permits have to come soon.
Now what about these leases in Israel ? Although not core to any current investment thesis for ATP, which is clearly based on a rapid ramp up of Gulf of Mexico production, the Israel expansion could be intriguing.
Although ATP didn’t release the details the fields that ATP had been rumored to be signing up for included the Myra and Sarah licenses as well as the Daniel license and Shimshon permit.
The Myra and Sarah permits previously belonged to a company called Shaldieli Ltd, which carried out a reverse merger with Israeli Petroleum Company in August. Shaldieli at that time indicated that the Myra lease could have 3.12 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and Sarah could have 1.65 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Shaldieli also indicated that on an unrisked basis they could be worth $7 billion.
2)
BeantwoordenVerwijderenNow I’m an oil man (please picture me as Daniel Day Lewis in ”There Will Be Blood”), but if you are going to produce natural gas these days it is certainly better to do it close to Europe where pricing is much more robust. So that makes these natural gas properties more attractive.
And these are big numbers for ATP. If ATP has close to 50% of these properties it is a big step change in the size of the company’s reserves. 50% of 5 trillion cubic feet of gas is 2.5 trillion cubic feet. All of ATP’s reserves currently add up to just over 1.2 trillion cubic feet (although over 60% weighted to oil).
How did ATP get the opportunity to get in on the ground floor of developing these potentially massive gas fields? I believe because of its unique amount of Deepwater experience. You may be surprised to learn that ATP has drilled the fourth most Deepwater wells in the Gulf of Mexico trailing only BP, Shell (RDS.A) and Anadarko (APC).
My understanding is that after ATP put together some slides presenting the number of wells drilled in the Deepwater per company at an Enercom conference this summer it started getting some interesting phone calls from around the world. I don’t think anyone in the industry or even ATP executives themselves previously realized that the company was above some of the major oil companies in terms of Deepwater experience. The presentation slides changed that.
It seems there are quite a few proven reservoirs of oil and gas reserves located in Deepwater locations around the world held by companies or countries with little experience in developing a Deepwater property. And if the reservoir isn’t absolutely massive a company isn’t going to get any help from the first three companies on the list (BP, Shell and Andarko) to develop a small or mid sized oil or gas field. But you might get some help from ATP. So the telephones at ATP started ringing and the voices on the other end had some different accents.
So the Israel deal might not be the last that ATP does internationally.
Make no mistake though, the very near term and the Gulf of Mexico is what is important to ATP. The company desperately needs to raise its production and cash flow to a level that matches its debt load.
I think that production increase is coming soon and if it does the share price might move upward to better match the value of ATP’s oil and gas assets. With the next 4 wells on production ATP will have an annual EBITA of well over $1 billion, which should justify an enterprise value well over $4 billion. That would suggest the value of ATP shares could be north of $40 vs $18 today.
And with another big project in the North Sea in the on deck circle the production and EBITA growth may continue upwards from there. Still a risky company with a lot of debt, but if $100 oil sticks around ATP over the next 5 years is going to make for some happy shareholders.
Disclosure: I am long ATPG.
More articles by Devon Shire
http://seekingalpha.com/article/255043-tired-of-storm-risks-atp-oil-and-gas-expands-into-offshore-israel?source=yahoo
'but if $100 oil sticks around ATP over the next 5 years is going to make for some happy shareholders.'
BeantwoordenVerwijderenFantastisch bedrijf dit. Ik heb ergens ten tijde van de BP-olieramp weer een hele zwik ATP-aandelen gekocht, ik weet niet eens meer uit mijn hoofd tegen welke prijs, maar het was rond het dieptepunt. Ben nu al een happy shareholder.
Vroeger had ik mijn twijfels over ATP, vooral vanwege de enorme schuld die ze hadden. Ik kocht ze ooit voor weinig en heb ze vrij snel weer van de hand gedaan... kan me nu nog wel voor mijn hoofd slaan, maar goed, wijsheid achteraf. Gelukkig kwam er een tweede kans.
Dank voor de tip, Precies, want volgens mij had jij dit aandeel destijds op Inveztor als eerste ingebracht.
(verplaatst van Prikbord)
BeantwoordenVerwijderenkees zei
Precies,
Ik heb maar weer eens een pluk ATPG verkocht het schoot zo fors omhoog. Ging nog even neuzen bij Yahoo en stuitte op een lijst met short aandelen op de Nasdaq en ATPG staat met ruim een derde van de aandelen in de top tien van de meest geshorte aandelen. Vandaar die volatiliteit. Heb jij een idee waarom? Bij IOC kan ik me daar iets bij voorstellen maar ATPG heeft een uitstekend management en een dikke kaspositie.
28 februari 2011 22:28
Kees,
BeantwoordenVerwijderende grote shortpositie in ATPG is misschien gedeeltelijk te danken aan obligatiehouders die zich wilden indekken tegen een faillissement, maar voor de rest is het onverklaarbaar. Dankzij de shortverkopers is de koers vele malen omlaag geduwd. Een zeer goed vergelijkbaar bedrijf als Stone Energy stond vroeger vrijwel gelijk aan ATPG, maar staat nu al boven de 30.
De grote shortpositie zal er vroeg of laat voor zorgen dat de koers veel harder gaat stijgen dan soortgelijke aandelen.
Een koers van boven de 50 later dit jaar lijkt mij goed haalbaar, mits geen onverwachte grote problemen opduiken.
Brun,
BeantwoordenVerwijderenOp Inveztor heb ik inderdaad flink wat reclame gemaakt voor ATPG, o.a. toen de koers rond de de 2 stond.
ATPG is en blijft een van mijn grootste belangen en ik zie dit jaar veel meer kansen voor een forse koersstijging dan voor Xcite.
Van Bloomberg. Als ik het artikel goed begrijp, gaat het hier om twee permits t.b.v. ATPG.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenJudge Orders U.S. to Act on Two More Gulf Drilling Permits (1)
By Laurel Brubaker Calkins and Allen Johnson Jr.
March 1 (Bloomberg) --- U.S. offshore regulators must act on two more stalled deep-water drilling permits within 30 days, U.S. District Judge Martin Feldman of New Orleans ruled today, one day after the government granted the first permit for resumed drilling in the deep-water Gulf of Mexico.
Feldman ordered the government Feb. 17 to act within a month on five drilling permits he said had been unreasonably delayed by the Obama Administration’s Gulf drilling moratorium, which he overturned last year. He found the government in contempt for continuing a de facto ban in spite of his orders to drop drilling restrictions that have prevented rigs from working since the BP Plc oil spill began last April.
The judge said today “the same rationale applies’’ to a request by ATP Oil & Gas Corp. to expedite action on two of its delayed permits as applied to Ensco Offshore Co.’s request for action on its five stalled applications last month.
“The government trivializes the delays,’’ Feldman said. “The government fails to acknowledge that the two permit applications at issue now have remained pending for several months -- far in excess of the 30-day time period deemed as reasonable in the court’s earlier order.’’
Mid-March Deadline
Feldman set the mid-March deadline for regulators to act on five Ensco deep-water drilling permits that have been stalled for as long as nine months by regulators who used to take, on average, two weeks to approve drilling applications before the BP oil spill.
Wyn Hornbuckle, a spokesman for the U.S. Justice Department, declined to comment.
Brit Brown, one of ATP’s attorneys, didn’t immediately return a call seeking comment after regular business hours.
Yesterday, Interior Department regulators approved a permit that will allow Noble Energy Inc. to resume drilling a deep- water well about 70 miles off the Louisiana coast.
President Barack Obama temporarily halted all drilling in waters deeper than 500 feet in May, following the explosion and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig off the Louisiana coast. After offshore companies and regional business and political leaders sued in June, Feldman threw out the ban as overly broad and punitive to the Gulf Coast regional economy.
Interior Secretary Kenneth Salazar promptly announced he would find a new way to block offshore drilling and, in July, imposed an almost identical ban. When that ban was also challenged in court, Salazar withdrew it in October before Feldman could rule on its validity.
The case is Ensco Offshore Co. v. Salazar, 2:10-cv-01941, U.S. District Court, Eastern District of Louisiana (New Orleans).
Van Forbes.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenATP Oil To Explore Near New Israeli Megafields
“It’s nice to be working with a government that understands the importance of domestic energy security,” says T. Paul Bulmahn, chief executive of ATP Oil & Gas. He’s referring to Israel, where ATG is ironing out the terms of a deal to explore offshore in one of the world’s hottest new natural gas regions.
Going overseas wasn’t Bulmahn’s first choice and he’s sad that he’ll be hiring new engineers in Tel Aviv instead of Houston. “I’m an American first. it’s not where we need to be for our own country’s interest,” he says. But he didn’t see much choice: “I don’t want us ever to be victimized again.”
He’s not overstating it. When BP’s blowout occurred last year ATP Oil & Gas had 10 permits outstanding to drill wells and lay pipelines in the gulf. It was also in the process of completing and installing two $600 million platforms to produce oil and gas from new deepwater fields. Chief Executive T. Paul Bulmahn says ATP had been on track to double its oil and gas production to 50,000 bpd within a year.
But since then, Bulmahn’s been stuck. No permits, no drilling. Though ATP was on the short list of companies that the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management said in January were close to getting permits, it was Shell Oil and Noble Energy that got the nod Feb. 28 to resume work.
Like them, ATP isn’t looking to start a new well, just drill a new branch off of an existing one. “It’s exceedingly frustrating,” says Bulmahn. “What’s being done now under the guise of an emergency which has already passed is not fair.”
What galls him the most is that ATP, being a smallish company ($800 million market cap) has always been rabid about safety. Its new Titan, designed three years before BP’s mess, features “triple redundancy” in protecting against blowouts and spills. Similar to the new systems deployed by a Big Oil consortium last month (see: New Deepwater Containment System Ready To Go), it features a blowout preventer and containment cap at the seafloor and another blowout preventer above the water on the bottom of the platform. Titan, the first deepwater platform ever to be built in the U.S. with American labor, exceeded safety requirements then and now.
Bulmahn had been holding out hope that the administration would see that ATP could be trusted to drill again. In December he sent a letter to the White House. It read: “Please Mr. President, give ATP a permit to return to work rather than forcing more American jobs to be lost.” In January, after the holidays, Bulmahn had no choice but to lay off half of ATP’s 200 drilling contractors. Delays have been costing ATP $300,000 a day.
...
... vervolg van het bovenstaande artikel ...
BeantwoordenVerwijderenDealing with tough situations is nothing new for Bulmahn. When he was a kid in rural Texas his family of seven sharecropped a garden down the road from their home. Because they didn’t have enough land for cows, they raised goats and made decent money selling their easily digestible milk to the lactose intolerant. “Instead of letting things happen or being a victim of society we made things happen.”
No different now. As soon as the deepwater moratorium was put in place Bulmahn set about looking for options. To ease ATP’s debt load he spun off Titan as a subsidiary and borrowed $350 million against it. More importantly, he began looking all around the world for countries “that are desirous of developing their offshore resources, desirous of our expertise, and which would prefer to work with a smaller company like ours that may not have entanglements in other countries.”
That expertise has proved a perfect match for Israel, where in late February Bulmahn announced a deal for ATP to explore near the recent offshore discoveries Leviathan and Tamar, which appear to hold enough natural gas to grant Israel decades of energy independence. ATP is currently in the running for as many as five licenses to explore and develop an area believed to have as much as 25 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (see: Leviathan Field Could Sustain Israel For Decades).
Bulmahn can’t yet say who ATP’s partners will be or how much he expects to invest in Israel, but a good bet is that he’ll be partnering with Noble, which discovered Leviathan and Delek, controlled by Israeli billionaire Yitzhak Tshuva. Bulmahn expects the region to soon eclipse the Gulf of Mexico and North Sea when it comes to tallying ATP’s reserves.
Bulmahn knows full well that America can’t afford a brain drain of oil and gas talent, but that’s what it’s going to get if the administration doesn’t return some normalcy to its permitting process soon.
“For America to be great we need an abundance of energy, of all kinds, not just oil and gas. We need nuclear and solar and windpower and biomass,” says Bulmahn. “We need them in abundance and we need them cheaply to be able to continue to grow our great country and make it greater than it is now.”
commentaar op bovenstaande berichten:
BeantwoordenVerwijderenDe beurs heeft enorm zitten overdrijven inzake de gevolgen van de olieramp, ook bij ATPG. Wat is er nu eigenlijk gebeurt...??
ATPG heeft de investeringen in een aantal oliebronnen moeten uitstellen (en houdt dus geld in kas). Elders komt de productie fors op gang, het geld stroomt al binnen en dat zal binnenkort nog veel harder gaan lopen als men eindelijk de nieuwe bronnen mag aanboren.
Van uitstel komt geen afstel.
ATPG heeft bovendien bewezen dat ze zich prima staande kunnen houden in een zeer moeilijke 'omgeving'.
Bruce Vanderveen zegt:
BeantwoordenVerwijderen++++++++++++++++++++++++
Oil is near $105 a barrel. Is it too late to invest in oil companies? I certainly don't think so! Consider these 5 reserve rich small caps. Three are bargains at current oil prices. Two, if not now, will be bargains when natural gas prices rise.
One company has $100/share in reserves, yet is priced at only $20/share. Another has 2,400,000 acres (3,750 square miles) of mostly unexplored oil shale prospects. A third, now getting into oil, is loaded with natural gas reserves . . . but sells for 7% of what it did in 2008.
Best of all, none of these companies' reserves is in volatile North Africa or the Middle East. Unrest in those areas only boosts their prospects. Consider:
ATP Oil and Gas (ATPG) -- Market cap: $1 billion
This deep water Gulf of Mexico oil driller (they also have North Sea presence) is still tarred (sorry) by last summer's Macondo oil spill and subsequent drilling moratorium. ATP Oil and Gas does not explore. Rather, it buys proven reserves and then develops them. The company has been quite successful with this strategy. Estimates of ATP OIl and Gas reserve value now is over $100/share while the current price is less than $20/share.
Lots of potential (and debt) here. The recent reopening of deep water drilling in the Gulf of Mexico should benefit the company.
And now there is a bonus. ATP Oil and Gas is getting involved in the recent enormous oil and gas discovery in the Levant basin offshore Israel. Maybe it is looking for relief from dealing with onerous U.S. drilling regulations. Could it be that Middle Eastern geopolitical risk is preferable to the U.S. regulatory risk.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
http://seekingalpha.com/article/257004-5-resource-rich-energy-companies-at-bargain-prices?source=yahoo
Vandaag flinke tik omlaag richting 16$. Vindt de cijfers ook veel minder sterk dan mijn toch al niet hoge verwachting ivm moratorium.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenDaarentegen zijn de vooruitzichten toch wel weer heel zonnig (29.000 boepd). Ik blijf maar weer rustig afwachten wat er nog allemaal gaat komen.
ATPG 16.59 -0.71
BeantwoordenVerwijderenPress Release Source: ATP Oil & Gas Corporation On Tuesday March 15, 2011, 2:22 am EDT
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ:ATPG - News) today released its 2010 financial results, reserves and 2011 operations update.
Fourth quarter production of 24.9 MBoe per day represented an increase of 83% over the same quarter of the prior year;
Current production rate is approximately 29,000 Boe per day after adding production at Mississippi Canyon (“MC”) 711 (“Gomez”) and Tors during the first quarter of 2011;
Recorded year-end 2010 proved reserves totaling 126.4 MMBoe (59% oil);
Announced projected expansion into Offshore Israel;
Experienced a net loss attributable to common shareholders for 2010 of $348.8 million and $206.6 for the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter net loss attributable to common shareholders included costs associated with the moratorium on deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, impairments at several Gulf of Mexico shelf properties, losses on derivatives and establishment of a valuation reserve on ATP’s U.S. net deferred tax assets; and
Added $110 million of additional liquidity since year-end 2010.
Production and Results of Operations
Production for 2010 was 4.5 MMBbls and 19.2 Bcf, or approximately 7.7 MMBoe (an average of 21.0 MBoe per day and 58% oil), compared to average production for 2009 of 16.1 MBoe per day (57% oil). Production for the fourth quarter of 2010 averaged 24.9 MBoe per day, compared to 21.1 MBoe per day for the third quarter of 2010 and 13.6 MBoe per day from the comparable quarter of 2009. ATP’s current production rate is approximately 29,000 Boe per day. The 2010 increase was due to two new wells at Telemark Hub placed on production during 2010, a recompletion at Gomez Hub, new wells at Canyon Express Hub and new wells at the Tors property in the U.K. North Sea. The MC 754 #3 well was completed and began producing at the Gomez Hub during late February 2011. Additional 2011 production volumes were added at Tors in the North Sea.
Revenues from oil and gas production were $141.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2010, compared to $74.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2009. Oil continued to represent a majority of sales, accounting for 78.5% of revenues in the fourth quarter of 2010 and 75.3% in the comparable 2009 period.
Het gaat er om spannen, de komende dagen moet volgens mij duidelijk worden of er een drilling permit goedgekeurd wordt. Ik denk dat, dat op termijn best zal gebeuren, maar gevoelsmatig denk ik dat Salazar gewoon niet wil buigen voor een rechter. Voor zover ik het begrepen heb moet er een uitspraak m.b.t. de permits gedaan worden. Die uitspraak kan ook zijn dat er nog niet aan alle eisen voldaan is. Dan heeft Salazar zijn zin en aan de wensen van de rechter voldaan.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenNou, niet te geloven zeg. Meer details heb ik niet, dan net dit onderstaande bericht:
BeantwoordenVerwijderen(Reuters) - The U.S. Interior Department said on Friday it approved a deepwater drilling permit for ATP Oil & Gas Corp (ATPG.O), the third such permit cleared by the government for the Gulf of Mexico since the BP oil spill.
The permit is for ATP to drill a new well at an existing location 90 miles south of Venice, Louisiana.
Fantastisch nieuws, SHR..!!
BeantwoordenVerwijderenEerlijk gezegd had ik het nieuws gemist, ik zie nu dat er een forse koersspike was, die echter weer snel teniet gedaan werd.
Misschien dat we maandag toch weer de 20 gaan halen.
Iets meer info, overbodige info eruit geknipt:
BeantwoordenVerwijderenHOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ:ATPG - News) today announced that it has received a permit to resume drilling the Mississippi Canyon (“MC”) Block 941 #4 well in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico.
“This permit for the ATP Titan drilling and production platform is the first for a stationary deepwater facility since deepwater drilling was allowed to resume on February 28, 2011
...
The MC 941 #4 well at ATP’s Telemark Hub in 4,000 feet of water was drilled to approximately 12,000 feet and cased during 2009. Operations to finalize drilling and completion will begin within the next 24 hours.
Ik had op dit nieuws ook verwacht dat het veel sterker omhoog zou gaan. Had inmiddels op 17.50 weer bijgekocht. Je kan immers niet altijd op het laagste punt kopen. Kan er straks weer een pluk vanaf als het de 22 passeert. Heb inmiddels al een dikke free ride op dit aandeel en toch is het elke keer weer vervelend om te zien dat het soms zo sterk daalt (vooral als je nog geen winst hebt gepakt).
BeantwoordenVerwijderenEn nog een permit. Toch wel interessant. Dit kan ATPG ook vanuit een wat andere invalshoek onder de aandacht brengen. Namelijk, dat ene bedrijf, je weet wel, ATPG, dat wel zijn permits krijgt :)
BeantwoordenVerwijderenHOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ:ATPG - News) today announced that it has received a permit to complete the previously drilled #2 well at Green Canyon (“GC”) Block 300 (“Clipper”) in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico.
...
The GC 300 #2 well, located in 3,454 feet of water, was sidetracked and encountered a gas reservoir between 15,590 and 15,721 feet total vertical depth in 2006. ATP plans to commence well operations with the Diamond Ocean Victory in 2011. ATP operates GC 300 with a 55% working interest.
...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ATP-Receives-2nd-Gulf-of-bw-568949224.html?x=0&.v=1
SHR, bedankt, je hebt weer een primeur!
BeantwoordenVerwijderenJe bijdragen worden door iedereen zeer op prijs gesteld, dus aarzel niet als je een interessant onderwerp of bericht voor dit blog tegenkomt!
Nog een kleine praktische opmerking voor iedere schrijver: bij dit blog neemt een 'lege regel' erg veel plaats in (zie boven), dus probeer dit svp te vermijden door zoveel mogelijk 'wit' weg te halen.
Bij voorbaat dank.
Het blijft merkwaardig. ATP heeft intussen al twee vergunningen gekregen om weer in de Golf te mogen boren, maar de koers kabbelt maar heen en weer. Ik sta nog steeds gigantisch in de winst, daar niet van. Maar toch. Ik had dit aandeel allang weer ver boven de 20 verwacht.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenZijn het shorters die de prijs telkens weer omlaag duwen?
Maar goed, beurzen zijn nu eenmaal irrationeel natuurlijk. In 2007 stond ATP op meer dan 50 dollar en toen had het bedrijf slechts een fractie bereikt van wat het nu heeft.
In an interview last week with the Financial Times, ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP ) CEO Jim Mulva told the paper he was looking for acquisitions in deepwater and shale. Read along, and I'll tell you the three stocks I believe are on his short list.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenIn the interview, Mulva said, "We would like to be more in the Gulf of Mexico; we have been late to this opportunity. We feel we have the capital, technology, people, and the good safety record." Conoco has shown interest and has some experience. The company has deepwater operations in the North Sea and is one of the founding members of the Marine Well Containment Co., which was formed after the BP disaster to respond to oil spills in the Gulf of Mexico.
So where will ConocoPhillips strike?
Here are three stocks I think should be on Mulva's short list.
ATP Oil & Gas (Nasdaq: ATPG )
ATP is an exploration and production company focusing on deepwater in the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea. Unlike most of its peers, ATP takes the "E" out of the equation. It does this by buying proven, yet undeveloped, offshore fields and bringing them into production. ATP Oil & Gas has long caught my eye. Last year, ATP Oil & Gas was expected to drill four wells that would transform the company into a cash flow machine. The company finished one well early in the year, but then the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico with Transocean's Deepwater Horizon happened, and all drilling ceased. Drilling has since resumed.
I believe ATP is at least 50% undervalued, and I have purchased long-term call options on the shares. Buying ATP would make sense for ConocoPhillips since it would be acquiring one of the most experienced deepwater operators, expanding its operations in the North Sea, and could use its resources to mitigate ATP's debt woes.
8 Deeply Undervalued Oil and Gas Stocks to Consider
BeantwoordenVerwijderenApril 14, 2011 | about: ATPG, DPTR, GMXR, HERO, KOG, ROYL, SD, SGY
by Jack Fuller
ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (ATPG): ATP operates in the continental shelf on the Gulf of Mexico, with 75 blocks, 53 platforms, and 147 dedicated towards the acquisition, development, and production of natural gas and oil. ATP operates many attractive oil and gas reserves, but has managed to acquire them without much competition from larger firms. The $940 million company’s share prices surged last week when it won its second deep-water permit to complete its #2 well at Green Canyon Block 300 after encountering a gas reservoir. Beacon rates ATP a “hot stock to watch”, and we’re inclined to agree. For our full valuation of ATPG, click here. Shares trade at $16.65 at the time of writing.
Obama will approve more oil-drilling leases:
BeantwoordenVerwijderenhttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-will-approve-more-oil-drilling-leases-2011-05-14?link=MW_home_latest_news
Commentaar: kan nooit kwaad voor de ATP-koers, lijkt me.
The Beginning of the End for OPEC - The Rise of a $27 Trillion Israeli Oil Find
BeantwoordenVerwijderenIt could be the second-largest oil basin in the world. And it belongs to Israel.
Is this the beginning of the end for OPEC?
Bron: AgoraFinancial.com
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
voor de liefhebbers: Adira en Brownstone.
En Noble en ATPG natuurlijk.
Brownstone is best een leuke tip, ik heb er een kleine positie in. Misschien een eigen discussie hier waardig?
BeantwoordenVerwijderenIn Adira is nauwelijks tot geen handel, dus daar heb ik destijds geen aandelen in gekocht.
Brun,
BeantwoordenVerwijderenAdira zit geloof ik meer in shale-gas/olie, dan in offshore.
Brownstone is te mager voor een eigen draadje, maar ik kom binnenkort wel met een aparte olie-draad.
ATP Oil & Gas: Significant Upside in Production Growth Potential
BeantwoordenVerwijderenJune 12, 2011 |
Could ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG) be considered a “screaming buy”? The simple answer is "yes". The current market price for ATPG is $16.27 and, if all goes well, a reasonable 12-month price target could be in the $28 to $32 range, creating a potential gain of between 70% and 100%.
However, the company also comes with offsetting financial and execution risks.
ATP is currently operating cash flow positive at 25 mboe/d production. In the first quarter, management reported ocf of $1.57/share, annualized at $6.28/shr. However, 2011 capital expenditures are slated at $9.50/shr and short-term NPI/override payments amount to an additional $4.25/shr. Combined, the total ocf nut to crack is $13.75/shr. This should equate to production in the 40 - 42 mboe/d range. How is the company going to grow its production from its 1st quarter rate of 25 to 40+?
The company is currently drilling a 3rd well at its Titan production facility and added production should be on-line within the next 60 days. This well should produce at least 7 mboe/d, and is anticipated to be mainly oil. In addition, ATP has a permit to drill a natural gas well that should bring in an additional 3.5 mboe/d, and this project should start shortly. Increased production from already permitted activity should add an additional 10 of the 15 - 17 mboe/d needed to reach 40+.
The company is waiting on a permit to drill the 4th and final well for this round of production at the Titan. Much like the well that is being currently drilled, the 4th well should add about 7 mboe/d. There is an additional natural gas well in the queue that, when permitted and completed, should increase production by an additional 3.5 mboe/d.
With permits in hand turned into production, the company should be reaching 35 mboe/d. When the next two permits are issued, the wells drilled, and the product is on-line, production should reach 45 mboe/d.
With this level of production at current commodity prices, ocf could be in the $13 to $14 range, sufficient to internally fund both cap ex and short-term NPI payments. If share prices trade at a discounted 2.5 times ocf, $11.50 in ocf should equate to a $28 share price and $13 in ocf should equate to a $32 share price.
2)
BeantwoordenVerwijderenIf share prices trade at a discounted 2.5 times ocf, $11.50 in ocf should equate to a $28 share price and $13 in ocf should equate to a $32 share price.
The risks to achieving this goal are both financial and operational. Unlike some small-cap peers, ATP management has built its business using various debt instruments over equity for growth capital, resulting in high liabilities and a low number of shares outstanding. Internal cash flow, cash in the bank, and additional NPI contracts will allow management to meet their $500 million 2011 cap ex budget, including completion of the two permitted wells. No sane investor would squabble over its high debt levels, but the other side of the coin is equity investors are able to leverage their exposure to the potential of a rapidly expanding production base in a strong commodity market.
Over the next 12 months, investor focus should be on the current two permits and the next two pending wells, their production levels along with any delays in scheduling completion. These next four wells should increase production sufficiently to generate meaningful operating cash flow.
ATPG is not for the faint of heart. Based on its recent trading history, it seems until the investment community is convinced management has succeeded in generating this level of production, share prices will probably not reflect its potential. In other words, it’s what I call a “Missouri Stock” - Show Me the Money. As operating cash flow increases in a stair-step fashion, so will share prices. Based on annualized 1st quarter 2011 results, current share prices are trading at 2.5 times ocf at 25 mboe/d of production. No premium is currently being given for the potential of rapid production growth.
ATPG needs 40+ mboe/d production to become financially viable in the long term. If management achieves this goal with the next four wells, patient shareholders will be amply rewarded. If not, the winners will be the large amount of short bets currently being wagered.
For those that believe the production growth potential is achievable and are willing to take on the speculative risks, a 70% to 100% prospective stock gain should qualify as a “screaming buy”.
Disclosure: I am long ATPG and have been a shareholder since 2007
More articles by George Fisher »
Press Release Source: ATP Oil & Gas Corporation On Monday June 13, 2011, 8:30 am
BeantwoordenVerwijderenHOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ:ATPG - News) and its wholly-owned subsidiary ATP East Med B.V. (“ATP East Med”) have acquired the Shimshon, Daniel East and Daniel West licenses in offshore Israel and the Israeli government has approved these licenses. Based on the acquired licenses, ATP through ATP East Med anticipates spending between $3 and $5 million in 2011 in offshore Israel for acquisition costs, seismic and preliminary exploration plans.
ATP East Med, as operator of the licenses, has assumed the drilling contract with Transocean Drilling Israel Ltd. for the Sedco Express drilling unit at the Shimshon location where it anticipates initial drilling during the second quarter 2012. ATP expects to spend between $24 and $29 million during 2012 related to the initial exploratory well on the Shimshon license for its 40% working interest.
ATP notes that Isramco Negev, its partner in Shimshon, on March 6, 2011 reported that it received an independent reservoir engineering evaluation from Lockwood & Associates estimating gross potential natural gas reserves at Shimshon. According to Isramco Negev, “Lockwood & Associates considers the calculated assessment of the total geological and geophysical exploration probability of success of 20 percent to be reasonable. Lockwood said its high estimate was for 3.4 TCF, the low estimate was 1.5 TCF and its best estimate was 2.3 TCF.”
Additional information on the Daniel East and Daniel West licenses will be provided as drilling and exploration plans are approved. ATP East Med is also party to two other licenses in offshore Israel which are awaiting approval by the Israeli Ministry of National Infrastructures.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
commentaar: als ik zo tussen de regels lees dan lijkt het er toch sterk op dat ATPG is afgestapt van z'n originele formule, nl het kopen van reeds ontdekte olie/gasbronnen.
Ik zie hier toch duidelijk exploratie met de bijbehorende kansen en risico's.
He Precies,
BeantwoordenVerwijderenInderdaad een beetje andere aanpak dan normaal. De CEO heeft een aantal weken terug een interview gegeven waarin hij ook aangaf dat het in de GoM lastig opereren was met de huidige president en het hele gedoe met BP. Daarom was de stap richting Isreal nodig, daar kan men waarschijnlijk makkelijker doorgroeien dan in de VS zelf.
Even wat anders, hoe waardeer jij nu de 1.5-3.4 TcF die men aan het Israelische veld toekent? Ik heb geen idee wat een TCF nu eigenlijk waard is.
Yahoo Forum:
BeantwoordenVerwijderen------------
ATP/Leland Tate on Israel 12-Jun-11 10:22 am
Ran across this new article from Israel. Seems we are going to drill Shimshon in April 2012.
"We've joined partnerships in three exploration licenses (Shimshon, and the two Daniel licenses with Isramco Ltd. (Nasdaq: ISRL; TASE: ISRA.L) - A.B.), and we're waiting for permits for two more (Keren and Avia with Delek Group- A.B.). We're in talks for other licenses. We want to be a partner in every available license. If we can obtain 12 licenses, we'll be very pleased."
"Our share price, at $16-17, overprices risk. The market cap does not fully reflect our drilling and production facilities, which are worth about $1 billion, or our oil and gas reserves, which are worth another $6.7 billion. According to our books (assets less liabilities - A.B.), our share price ought to be $70-80."
http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/d...
"Even wat anders, hoe waardeer jij nu de 1.5-3.4 TcF die men aan het Israelische veld toekent? Ik heb geen idee wat een TCF nu eigenlijk waard is."
BeantwoordenVerwijderenFD89,
ja daar heb ik ook problemen mee.
Het klinkt nogal veel, maar bij zoveel nullen werkt mijn rekenmachientje niet meer....!!
Je hoort het zo vaak; "ATPG is wel $80,- waard". Toch heeft het aandeel in 10 jaar slechts een paar keer boven de $50,- gestaan, dus de aandeelhouders en traders denken er toch iets anders over.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenHendrik,
BeantwoordenVerwijderendie $80 betreft de NPV, oftewel de waarde van de olie/gas reserves contant gemaakt tegen meestal 10%.
Dit is een puur theoretisch cijfer dat eigenlijk niet veel waarde heeft (behalve voor vergelijking), het gaat er om hoeveel en hoe snel een bedrijf de olie/gas uit de grond kan halen.
Zolang het in de grond zit heb je er immers niks aan.
De kleine aandeelhouders van bv Xcite zitten zich ook rijk te rekenen met de NPV, maar dat is echt zinloos.
Ook bv Royal Shell zal nooit een koers hebben die gelijk is aan de NPV.
Een hoge NPV duidt er wel op dat er in de toekomst nog veel inkomsten zullen zijn, mits men de investeringen kan doen om het uit de grond te halen.
FD89,
BeantwoordenVerwijderenik denk dat ca 2 trillion (= 2 biljoen) cubic feet gas ca 50 miljard cubic meter gas is, maar ik kan er makkelijk een paar nullen naast zitten.
Ter vergelijking: Slochteren was oorspronkelijk ca 2000 cubic meter gas.
Press Release Source: ATP Oil & Gas Corporation On Wednesday June 15, 2011, 9:39 am EDT
BeantwoordenVerwijderenHOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ:ATPG - News) today announced that it has priced a public offering of 1,500,000 shares of Series B 8.00% convertible perpetual preferred stock. The terms of the Series B issue are substantially identical to the company’s existing outstanding convertible perpetual preferred stock. The company has also granted a 30-day option to the underwriters to purchase approximately 225,000 additional shares of convertible perpetual preferred stock to cover any over-allotments. To show support for the company’s commitment to a higher stock price and to eliminate dilution from this offering and our existing outstanding preferred, ATP is using a portion of the net proceeds of this offering to buy a capped call transaction. The capped call transaction covers approximately 13.1 million common shares and can prevent any dilution of outstanding common shares up to a share price of $27.50. This transaction reflects the company’s view that its intrinsic value is not currently reflected in its stock price.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
commentaar:
Dit is erg leuk gevonden: ATPG heeft een hekel aan verwatering, dus ze kopen een call-optie voor ca 13 miljoen aandelen...!!
Omdat de schrijver van de call hiervoor dekking moet vinden, zou dit best eens een koersstijging kunnen veroorzaken.
Press Release Source: ATP Oil & Gas Corporation On Monday June 20, 2011, 5:39 pm
BeantwoordenVerwijderenHOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ:ATPG - News) today announced that it has upsized and closed its previously announced public offering of Series B 8.0% convertible perpetual preferred stock. Prior to this placement closing and pursuant to the underwriting agreement, the underwriters exercised their option to purchase 225,000 additional shares of convertible perpetual preferred stock to cover over-allotments. The exercise of the over-allotment expanded the transaction from 1.5 million shares to 1.725 million shares. In conjunction with the expanded offering, ATP also expanded the capped call spread to cover all 14.1 million shares that are eligible for conversion in this transaction as well as the shares convertible in the original September 2009 convertible perpetual preferred series. The cost of the capped call spread was $26.5 million or approximately $1.88 per common share eligible for conversion under both preferred stock series. The impact of the capped call spread is to prevent any dilution of common shares up to a price per common share of $27.50. The Series B preferred priced at $90 per share, approximately $4.50 per share less than the most recently available indicated price for the privately traded preferred series issued in September 2009. After the discount, fees of the issue and cost of the capped call transaction, net proceeds were $123.6 million.
ATP Oil & Gas: The Sirens Are Calling
BeantwoordenVerwijderenATP Oil and Gas (ATPG) continues to bounce around in the $15 to $16 range, and has for the past six weeks. Why? Because nothing much has changed. According to management’s recent presentation, second quarter average production was virtually flat, clocking in at 24 mboe/d versus 26 mboe/d, registering a decline of 7.6% quarter over quarter. However, there was a production shut-in for rework and maintenance, normal disruptions in the deep water oil business. There is still an overhang and negative investor sentiment concerning the recent moves to issue a new series preferred, along with purchasing a capped call position on all outstanding preferred shares.
In addition, management announced the Telemark well #4 will be completed in this quarter, dropping the “early” from its projected schedule. The next well at Telemark will be #2, and the permit has yet to be issued. As the company is still working on #4, it can’t start #2 until it is completed.
So what does this mean? I believe it means that the cash flow from these upcoming wells will still show up in the bank, just not as soon as some would like. We can play the “blame game” or analyze the reality. I prefer the latter.
Second quarter results should be announced in two weeks, and with flat-ish production, operating cash flow should be about the same as first quarter: $1.50 to $1.60 a share, or $6.00 annualized. This is the key matrix that needs to expand to $14.75/share as soon as possible to internally fund $500 million in capex and $220 million in repayment of NPI debt. Obviously, 24 mboe/d and $1.60 in quarterly ocf doesn’t cut it; investors know this and management knows this.
To get from the current 24 mboe/d to 40 mboe/d, which should generate $13.00 in ocf, management needs to get Telemark #4 and Telemark #2 on line at 7.5 mboe/d each. This seems like realistic production goals, and it almost maximizes the oil capacity of the Titan. So the company is in the same pickle it was in six weeks ago: Investors are still awaiting well completion and further permitting. This is why the share price continues to languish.
2)
BeantwoordenVerwijderenIf Telemark #4 comes on by mid- to late-Sept. and if Telemark #2 gets permitted and takes no more than 160 days to complete (60% higher than management’s estimate), both should be on line by mid-first quarter 2012 – say Feb 15.
There should be two steps to improving cash flow over the next six months. When Telemark #4 is online, production of current average 24 plus 7.5 should equal 31.5 mboe/d, and about $10.00 in ocf. When Telemark #4 and #2 are both on line, production should be 24 plus 7.5 plus 7.5, equal to 40 mboe/d, and about $12.80 in ocf.
Investors should expect “disappointing” headlines centered on reported earnings, with most likely a reported operating loss in eps for the quarter and first six months, with a focus on missed internal production growth deadlines. The reality is the timetable for completion of these critical wells, and the needed financial relief they will bring, has been extended until mid-Sept. and potentially mid-Feb. ATP remains a highly leveraged deepwater oil development play with a large percentage production increase potential from only the next two projects.
There are three short-term catalysts to this move: Reported earnings to the negative; completion of well #4 to the positive; and permitting/drilling/completion of well #2 to the positive, in that order.
By mid-Sept. well completion to the next reported earnings in Nov., at a discounted 2.5 times ocf, share prices could climb to the $22 to $25 range, based on $10 annualized ocf. By mid-Feb. well completion to the next reported earnings in May of 2012, share prices could be touching $30. All depends on the timetable and completion of the next two wells; this is the same story as before.
I expect the Sirens to come out in force around earnings time, and dissipate soon afterwards with the completion of well #4. With a large short position outstanding and where most all will be underwater at share prices above $20 to $24, the voices of negativity may be quite loud. Frustrated and impatient longs may chose to throw in the towel, pressuring share prices.
While there have been short-term opportunity costs as ATPG underperforms its peers, the story is still intact for a potential doubling of share price. The production opportunities are there, it’s just the clock has been reset yet again.
As always, investors should conduct their own due diligence, should develop their own understanding of these potential opportunities, and should determine how it may fit their current financial situation.
Disclosure: I am long ATPG.
by George Fisher »
iemand enig idee waarom ATPG zo hard aan het dalen is, behalve de olieprijs?
BeantwoordenVerwijderengr
fd89
FD89,
BeantwoordenVerwijderener is niks mis met ATPG, wel met de beurs.
............................................
ATP Oil + Gas Corporation : Over the past six months, insiders have bought 185,750 shares and have sold -10,410 shares, for a net of 175,340 shares. The shares recently traded at $14.24 and its market capitalization is $733,779,700.
............................................
Yahoo forum:
BeantwoordenVerwijderen............................................Call with Al Reese continued. 2-Aug-11 03:33 pm
Clipper- Ocean Victory on site and working. Still anticipate production about mid 2012 (I believe this is what he said) as they need to lay the pipeline for the project.
Israel Still waiting on 2 leases and think that will come fairly soon. ATPG pretty much has people in Israel continuously at this point as they are starting to ramp up for drilling. Clearly excited about the opportunity and believes this will be a future home run.
Entrada- Still on for 2013 but could move up with improved CF. Mentioned he thought these would be VERY GOOD wells and agreed they got a great field for a song. Found out one thing I didn't know which is that ATPG will have to drill new wells as the 4 wells already drilled were plugged and abandoned when Callon gave up the lease and these can not be reentered. Doesn't know whether next door Magnoilia hub will have excess capacity when Entrada comes on as things change but has no reason to doubt they will.
More frequent updates - He pointed out that someone from the company generally is doing a presentation once a month or so and that he feels if they tried to make a regular monthly update along with the conferences that at times there is just nothing new to report and they could then be accused of pumping the stock. He also said that all of the relevant production info is posted regularly on the BOEMRE site and that those hungry for info should mine that for data. He feels that they already update as much as they should and disclose material info as required. I personally like to know as much as I can but I think Al has a very good point. He has to be concerned about how the company is perceived and with qtrly CC's , investment presentations and the odd press release I think he is correct in his concern. He also said he welcomed calls and emails and tried to return them expeditiously. I can attest this has always been the case with my queries.
That pretty much sums up what I can only describe as a VERY informative and pleasant call. GLTA and many thanks to Mr Reese.
2)
BeantwoordenVerwijderenCall with Al Reese 2-Aug-11 03:14 pm
Had a very pleasant call with Al Reese just now and will try to recap.
1. 941-3 water- He says this has been blown completely out of proportion. Always expected they would have water and that it would have been unusual not to have some water cut. Production still exceeding expectation and water is a non issue. Info has been on BOEMRE site for several months so he was surprised to see it raise such a Kerfuffle now. NO PROBLEM with this well.
2.Permits- Still waiting on next telemark permit. Very confident they will suffer no delay in drilling the next well as soon as they complete the current well. Gov aware that they can't drill the next well until this one is done. No particular requests for info on this well that might hold things up although he did say that BOEMRE under new regime asks for stuff pretty continuously.
3.Production steady no change from last qtr exit rate still about 24K.
4. Earnings release date and CC- Plan to release earnings next Monday after mkt close and have CC Tuesday AM. Not official yet as still before the audit committee.
5.Why does he think the share price took such a hit today?- He says there are no developments that he knows of to cause this but says it COULD be the misinformation about the significance of the water cut in 941-3. Also mentioned that JPM released an equity report on the oil patch yesterday in which they reiterated their $10 target for ATPG. He clearly thinks JPM is wrong but says it could be a reason for the drop. Also mentioned that they have seen previous times when a significant shareholder would unload before earnings due to wanting to lighten up energy holdings. Other than that can't guess why we are so down.
Continued on next post.
Weak Demand Outlook a Major Risk for Ivanhoe Energy and ATP Oil & Gas (bron: Yahoo Finance).
BeantwoordenVerwijderen----------------------
NEW YORK, NY--(Marketwire -08/08/11)- Oil stocks have been on the downswing this month as crude oil prices have plummeted and a report on the services industry raised new concern that the economy is faltering. The drop in prices has been particularly hard on oil producers, many of which boosted production in recent quarters in hopes of capitalizing on higher oil prices. The Bedford Report examines the outlook for companies in the Oil and Gas Sector and provides equity research on Ivanhoe Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: IVAN - News) (TSX: IE.TO - News) and ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ: ATPG - News). Access to the full company reports can be found at:
www.bedfordreport.com/IVAN
www.bedfordreport.com/ATPG
The US government's Department of Energy had revealed that American crude reserves climbed by 1.0 million barrels in the week ending July 29 -- suggesting weaker demand in the world's biggest crude-consuming nation.
Greg Priddy, director of global oil at consultancy Eurasia Group, told The Wall Street Journal that "the evidence accumulating of very slow growth in the U.S. economy and substantial demand destruction... the main risk in the crude oil market over the next quarter will be to the downside."
The Bedford Report releases investment research on the Oil and Gas Sector so investors can stay ahead of the crowd and make the best investment decisions to maximize their returns. Take a few minutes to register with us free at www.bedfordreport.com and get exclusive access to our numerous analyst reports and industry newsletters.
Several oil producers boosted production in recent quarters, as previous economic forecasts had been much more positive. ATP Oil & Gas Corporation is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of oil and natural gas properties in the outer continental shelf of the Gulf of Mexico. Drilling activity is once again picking up in the Gulf after the temporary moratorium. ATP was the first Gulf of Mexico operator to begin drilling in the deepwater after the BOEMRE began issuing permits.
Heavy oil producer Ivanhoe Mines has operations in Canada, Mongolia, Ecuador and China. In its most recent earnings report the company said production at its Dagang field in China rose 25 percent to 90,599 net barrels of oil after royalties.
The Bedford Report provides Market Research focused on equities that offer growth opportunities, value, and strong potential return. We strive to provide the most up-to-date market activities. We constantly create research reports and newsletters for our members. The Bedford Report has not been compensated by any of the above-mentioned publicly traded companies. The Bedford Report is compensated by other third party organizations for advertising services. We act as an independent research portal and are aware that all investment entails inherent risks. Please view the full disclaimer at http://www.bedfordreport.com/disclaimer.
------------------------
Die link kun je je trouwens snel op registreren en ze hebben een mooi analyserapport over ATPG!
Verwijdert iemand mijn teksten ofzo? Heb nu al twee keer iets geplakt hier van Yahoo Finance en direct foetsie!
BeantwoordenVerwijderenATP Oil & Gas reports Q2 EPS ($1.63) vs. consensus (38c)
BeantwoordenVerwijderen------------------------------
Reports Q2 revenue $172.9M vs. consensus $171.88M. Q2 EPS includes impairment expense of $45.7M, workover expenses of $17.3M-$1.2M of drilling interruption costs associated with the Gulf of Mexico moratorium. Also, the items include $45.1M related to the unrealized derivative income for the quarter. As a result of production increases and higher oil prices, ATP reduced its estimate of the time required to repay a dollar-denominated Override at Gomez. This change in estimate resulted in our recognizing $21.9M in incremental interest expense related to this Override in the Q2 compared to the Q1.
Wie is er aan het kopen?
BeantwoordenVerwijderenIk. Voorzichtig een paar stukken op gepikt.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenfd89
OK. CC net meegekregen? Zo niet, dan kun je hier de samenvattingen terugvinden:
BeantwoordenVerwijderenhttp://messages.finance.yahoo.com/mb/ATPG
Of gewoon het audio bestand van hun website overnemen;
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=123846&p=irol-irhome
Hendrik, misschien afvragen wie er aan het VERkopen is? stoploss al geraakt?
BeantwoordenVerwijderengr
Ik ben zelf geen bezitter. Vind het jammer dat ik die pluk van 6.26 heb gemist :-)
BeantwoordenVerwijderenHendrik,
BeantwoordenVerwijderenje zoekgeraakte bericht zat om onbekende redenen in het spamvak.
ATP Oil starts production from US Gulf well, shares jump
BeantwoordenVerwijderenWed Aug 24, 2011 9:45am EDT
Aug 24 (Reuters) - ATP Oil & Gas Corp said oil production has started at one of its deepwater Gulf of Mexico wells, with an initial rate of more than 7,000 barrels a day, sending it shares up as much as 10 percent.
The Mississippi Canyon Block 941 A-2 is the third well brought on production at the Telemark Hub using its ATP Titan platform, the company said.
"We have finally realized the planned material production revenue of this well that has been much anticipated for 16 months," Chief Executive T. Paul Bulmahn said.
ATP, an offshore oil and gas producer focused in the Gulf of Mexico, Mediterranean Sea and the North Sea, operates the Telemark Hub in about 4,000 feet of water with a 100 percent working interest.
Shares of the company touched a high of $11.19 in early trade on Wednesday on Nasdaq. (Reporting by Krishna N Dash in Bangalore; Editing by Maju Samuel)
Not counting today's action, ATPG is down a little over 30% YTD! Now here are some of the others in the Energy Sector and their performance YTD:
BeantwoordenVerwijderenAPA -22%
AAV -24%
CNQ -23%
XEC -27%
CWEI -38%
CRK -26%
DNR -27%
DVN -19%
XCO -37%
FST -50%
GMXR -59%
GTE -27%
IVAN -50%
MRO -34%
MMR -28%
NFX -35%
KWK -40%
TLM -34%
TGA -42%
UPL -32%
ATP Oil and Gas Corp. (ATPG) is trading at $11.04. ATPG is an independent oil and gas company, based in Texas. These shares have traded in a range of $6.26 to $21.40 in the last 52 weeks. The 50-day moving average is $12.81 and the 200-day moving is $16.02. Earnings estimates for ATPG are expected to go from a loss in 2011 to a profit of $1.49 per share in 2012. The higher revenue and profits for 2012 are due to higher production coming from oil wells in the Gulf of Mexico. A few directors have been buying significant amounts of ATPG stock in recent weeks. You can see the repeated insider buying here.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/296840-7-beaten-down-stocks-with-fresh-insider-buying?source=yahoo
http://www.insidercow.com/history/company.jsp
ATP Bond Yields Soar to 23.4% as Moody’s Cites Restructuring ‘Likelihood’
BeantwoordenVerwijderenATP Oil & Gas Corp.’s $1.5 billion of 11.875 percent notes maturing in May 2015 dropped 5.75 cents to 73 cents on the dollar today.
The Houston-based petroleum and natural gas producer’s debt is yielding 23.4 percent. The debt has dropped from 102.5 cents at the end of July, when it yielded 11 percent.
ATP shows a “high likelihood” it may face some type of restructuring, analysts from Moody’s Investors Service wrote in a Sept. 26 report. The company’s asset base and cash flows are “not sufficient to cover” the second-lien notes, according to the report. Moody’s assigns a Caa2 grade to ATP with a “negative” outlook.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-29/atp-1-5-billion-of-debt-falls-to-yield-23-4-trace-data-show.html
During the past 90 days, management and directors have been buying shares, some at much higher prices than current valuations.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenIn reply to the Moody’s Sept 26th report, Mr. Al Reece, CFO, talked to Bloomberg and the article is in part:
“ATP expects to begin production from new wells at its Telemark field this year, followed by additional output at the Clipper and Gomez projects in 2012, Entrada in 2013 and Cheviot a year later, said Albert L. Reese, ATP’s chief financial officer. All of those fields are in the Gulf of Mexico, except Cheviot, which is in the U.K. ‘All of that is before the bonds come due in 2015, so I don’t know what Moody’s is talking about,’ Reese said today in a telephone interview. ‘I can’t fight rumors or reports, all I can do is continue to deliver on the promises we’ve made. Our expectation is that everything is going to be fine.’”
One uncertainty is the oil price that the company will use to hedge the additional production. Most all price decks are based on $90 WTI pricing for oil and $5 natural gas. However, ATP produces a better grade of crude and realizes a combination of 80% MARS and 20% Light Sweet Louisiana guidelines, which are at a premium to WTI. Currently with WTI at $83, MARS is trading at $103 and LSL is trading at $106, for a combined realized price of $104, or a current 24% premium to WTI. Price charts for MARS and LSL:
The macro-events of the past three months, along with the current nervousness of investors, have created ripe territory for ATP bears. Reviewing the trading volume levels of this decline compared with the previous decline, volumes rarely exceed 2 million shares a day versus the 7 million share blowout days in early Aug.
The “Downdraft of 2011” has taken risk off the table for many investors, and ATP, as exemplified by its high beta and controversial short-term financial future, is a risky selection.
Most small-cap E&P stocks respond positively to higher production announcements before it‘s reported as higher operating cash flow. However, it appears ATP investors are not motivated by announcements anymore and are waiting for quarterly reports of ocf before committing to a new long position.
The next earnings announcement should be around Nov 8th for the 3rd quarter. Production levels for the quarter should average around 27 mboe/d with an exit rate of around 30 mboe/d. Earnings announcement for the 4th quarter should be in early March 2012. Average production in the final quarter should be around 30 mboe/d. Management believes it can bring the Telemark well on line by the end of Dec, but a mid-Feb 2012 target gives it a little wiggle room due to the complexities of deepwater GOM drilling. First quarter 2012 average production could be around 35 mboe/d with an exit rate of 40 mboe/d.
Not much will happen to confirm or deny either the bull or the bear investment stance until early Nov.
Investors who are willing to take on a high beta stock in the GOM oil development business with a high leverage to the bankers, a high leverage to a short position, and a high leverage to the premium crude oil market should add more ATP shares in the $9 range. I am because if management is correct with its production targets for the next 12 months, the stock price could double and then almost double again.
Previous articles can be found here and here.
Disclosure: I am long ATPG (GeorgeFisher)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/296883-is-the-sky-falling-around-atp-oil-and-gas?source=yahoo
commentaar op bovenstaande berichten:
BeantwoordenVerwijderenHet is tamelijk belachelijk dat Moddy's 4 jaar voordat de obligaties moeten worden afgelost gaat beweren dat de cashflow t/m 2015 niet voldoende zou zijn en dat er zelfs een herstructurering zou moeten plaatsvinden.
Wie betaalt Moody's eigenlijk voor deze onzin...??
Een partij die een grote shortpositie heeft in aandelen of obligaties...????
De directie van ATPG acht de koers belachelijk laag en koopt bij, dat zegt genoeg.
Precies,
BeantwoordenVerwijderenKun je aantonen dat de cashflow wel voldoende is dan?
Anoniem,
BeantwoordenVerwijderennee dat kan ik niet;
1) ik ga af op deze uitspraak van de CFO: “ATP expects to begin production from new wells at its Telemark field this year, followed by additional output at the Clipper and Gomez projects in 2012, Entrada in 2013 and Cheviot a year later, said Albert L. Reese, ATP’s chief financial officer. All of those fields are in the Gulf of Mexico, except Cheviot, which is in the U.K. ‘All of that is before the bonds come due in 2015, so I don’t know what Moody’s is talking about,’ Reese said today in a telephone interview. ‘I can’t fight rumors or reports, all I can do is continue to deliver on the promises we’ve made. Our expectation is that everything is going to be fine.’”
2) op het feit dat de directie aandelen bijkoopt.
3) op het feit dat de directie de veel grotere financieringsproblemen in 2008/09 keurig heeft opgelost.
4) en op het feit dat ATPG nu een omzet van meer dan een miljard per jaar heeft.
In noodgevallen kan ATPG nog altijd z'n investeringen beperken; anders gezegd: ATPG kan met gemak z'n lening aflossen als ze niet zoveel zouden investeren.
Als de olieprijs en de productie in 2015 ongeveer hetzelfde zijn als nu, dan kunnen ze tzt ook prima weer een nieuwe lening opnemen om de oude (gedeeltelijk) mee af te lossen.
Mijn persoonlijke voorkeur gaat er naar uit dat ze minder gaan lenen, want daardoor kan/zal de shortpositie verdwijnen en kan de koers fors gaan stijgen.
Precies,
BeantwoordenVerwijderenIk heb de 6-10 dollar boot "gemist" (afgewacht) helaas en vraag me af of ik ATPG nu zal kopen of niet. Met de euro-maatregelen zie ik de dollar ook niet sterker worden, dus hoop eigenlijk op een dip en een zwakke dollar. Wat denk jij?
Anoniem,
BeantwoordenVerwijderenwat betreft ATPG:
Laten we eerst vaststellen dat de USD op korte en middellange termijn volkomen onvoorspelbaar is, het heeft dus geen zin om daarmee rekening te houden.
Als je dat toch doet bestaat de kans dat je een hele mooie koopkans laat liggen.
Van ATPG weten we dat de koers in 2007/08 nog op 50 USD stond bij een minimale productie. De directie is grootaandeelhouder en koopt bij, bovendien zijn dit zeer deskundige mensen die allerlei grote problemen hebben opgelost.
Bewust op het dieptepunt kopen is onmogelijk, dus ik kan je alleen aanraden om gespreid te kopen, met strakke limieten. Als je wat aandelen hebt dan is het veel gemakkelijker om bij te kopen, dus koop in ieder geval 100 stuks.
Ikzelf koop en verkoop steeds een beperkt aantal aandelen als er weer eens uitschieters zijn, hierdoor is mijn huidige kostprijs ca 9,50.
Veel succes!
28 oktober 2011 18:50
Press Release Source: ATP Oil & Gas Corporation On Monday November 7, 2011, 8:30 am EST
BeantwoordenVerwijderenHOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ:ATPG - News) today announced an operations update:
Drilling operations at the fourth Telemark Hub well at Mississippi Canyon (MC) Block 942 #2 are complete. ATP encountered 167 feet of new net pay sands above pre-drill estimates. These sands are in addition to the 72 feet of logged net oil pay seen in the original target sand. With this additional pay sand, ATP is modifying completion plans for MC 942 #2 and now expects to complete both hydrocarbon sands and establish production in late January 2012. ATP believes that these new pay sands will have a positive effect on production by extending the production life and third-party reserve estimates associated with MC 942.
Operations continue at the second Clipper well at Green Canyon (GC) Block 300 #4, where ATP has encountered oil pay sands. The well encountered 56 feet of logged net oil pay confirming reserves already booked. Completion operations are underway. Production at Clipper is still scheduled to begin in the third quarter of 2012 upon the completion of a pipeline, which is already under contract.
Third quarter production was 24,200 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, representing an increase of 14.7% over the same period a year ago.
ATP Chairman and CEO T. Paul Bulmahn stated, "ATP is excited with the drilling results from both the fourth Telemark Hub well, where we have encountered additional net pay sands above our projections, and the second Clipper well, which has now reached its total depth with completion operations underway. This development success demonstrates ATP’s commitment to advancing the company’s production growth, cash flow and asset base. ATP expects to begin production from the fourth Telemark well in the beginning of 2012, followed by additional planned production at Clipper and Gomez projects later in 2012, Entrada in 2013/2014 and Cheviot in 2014. We also look forward to drilling our first deepwater well at Shimshon in offshore Israel in 2012.”
Telemark Update
ATP encountered 167 feet of additional net pay sands above pre-drill estimates. These sands are in addition to the 72 feet of logged net oil pay seen in the original target sand at the Morgus well located at MC 942 #2.
Because of the considerable additional hydrocarbon-bearing sands, ATP is adjusting its completion plan to include two new gravel packs which will extend the projected completion time to late January 2012, and ATP expects a positive effect on production by extending the production life and third-party reserve estimates associated with MC 942.
The MC Block 942 #2 well, located in approximately 4,000 feet of water, was completed at a measured depth of 21,400 feet in the Miocene S sand at ATP’s deepwater Telemark Hub in the Gulf of Mexico. It is the fourth well that will be tied back to the ATP Titan floating drilling and production platform located at MC Block 941. ATP operates the deepwater Telemark Hub with a 100% working interest and owns 100% of the subsidiary that owns the ATP Titan and associated pipelines and infrastructure.
Clipper Update
ATP has encountered oil pay sands at the second Clipper well located at GC 300 in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. The GC 300 #4 well, located in approximately 3,450 feet of water, encountered 56 feet of logged net oil pay confirming reserves previously booked. The 9-5/8 inch casing has been set at 15,778 feet measured depth through the pay intervals. The well will now be completed and tested. In July 2011, ATP successfully completed and flow tested the first Clipper well, GC 300 #2 ST #1, at a rate of 45.6 MMcf per day and 4,656 Bbls per day. The pipeline lay barge for the Clipper wells is contracted for third quarter 2012 and will tie in both the GC 300 #4 and #2 wells to the Murphy Oil operated Front Runner production facility. ATP operates Clipper and presently owns a 100% working interest.
ATP Third-Quarter Loss Narrows as New Oil Output Rises
BeantwoordenVerwijderenBy Joe Carroll and Elisabeth Behrmann - Nov 9, 2011 5:55 AM GMT+0100
ATP Oil & Gas Corp., one of the first explorers to resume drilling in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico after the Deepwater Horizon disaster, said its loss narrowed in the third quarter as production increased from new wells.
The loss shrank to $5.6 million, or 11 cents a share, from $58.4 million, or $1.15, a year earlier, the Houston-based company said in a statement distributed by Business Wire. ATP was expected to lose 53 cents a share, based on the average of five analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Chief Executive Officer T. Paul Bulmahn has increased production with new wells at fields such as Gomez in the Gulf of Mexico at a time when prices for the types of crude ATP pumps averaged more than $110 a barrel. The Gulf is home to 96 percent of the company’s oil and natural-gas output.
The announcement was released after the yesterday’s close of regular trading on U.S. markets. ATP rose 1.3 percent to $10.50 at the close in New York on Nov. 8.
The company has been punished by investors, shedding more than a third of its market value this year, after a federal moratorium imposed on Gulf drilling after the worst offshore spill in U.S. history halted exploration.
ATP also has been dogged by a Sept. 26 assessment from Moody’s Investors Service that saw a “high likelihood” that the company may have to restructure its debt because of insufficient cash flow. ATP’s $1.79 billion in net debt exceeds that of 97 percent of its U.S.-based peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Chief Financial Officer Albert L. Reese said in a Sept. 29 interview that new wells at fields such as Telemark and Entrada in the Gulf and Cheviot in the U.K.’s North Sea will produce more than enough to cover the company’s debt payments.
Press Release Source: ATP Oil & Gas Corporation On Tuesday November 8, 2011, 11:35 pm EST
BeantwoordenVerwijderenHOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ:ATPG - News) today announced third quarter 2011 results.
Oil and gas production for the third quarter 2011 was 2.2 million barrels of oil equivalent (Boe), or 24,200 Boe per day, compared to 1.9 MMBoe (21,100 Boe per day) for the third quarter 2010, reflecting a 15% increase. Revenues from oil and gas production were $170.1 million for the third quarter 2011 compared to $102.1 million for the third quarter 2010. Increased revenues from production were attributable to higher production volumes and higher oil prices. Oil represented 69% of total production for the third quarter 2011, compared to 58% of total production for the third quarter 2010. ATP continues to sell a majority of its oil production at prices close to Louisiana Light Sweet pricing (LLS), currently trading at a substantial premium to West Texas Intermediate pricing (WTI).
The Mississippi Canyon (MC) Block 942 #2, located in approximately 4,000 feet of water, was completed at a measured depth of 21,400 feet in the Miocene S sand at ATP’s deepwater Telemark Hub in the Gulf of Mexico. This will be the fourth well tied back to the ATP Titan floating drilling and production platform located at MC Block 941. ATP encountered 167 feet of additional net pay sands above pre-drill estimates. These sands are in addition to the 72 feet of logged net oil pay seen in the original target sand at the Morgus well located at MC 942 #2. Because of the considerable additional hydrocarbon-bearing sands, ATP is adjusting its completion plan to include two new gravel packs which will extend the projected completion time to late January 2012, and ATP expects a positive effect on production by extending the production life and third-party reserve estimates associated with MC 942. ATP operates the deepwater Telemark Hub with a 100% working interest and owns 100% of the subsidiary that owns the ATP Titan and associated pipelines and infrastructure.
The second Clipper well, located at Green Canyon (GC) 300 #4, in approximately 3,450 feet of water, encountered 56 feet of logged net oil pay confirming reserves previously booked. The 9-5/8 inch casing has been set at 15,778 feet measured depth through the pay intervals. The well will now be completed and tested. In July 2011, ATP successfully completed and flow tested the first Clipper well, GC 300 #2 ST #1, at a rate of 45.6 MMcf per day and 4,656 Bbls per day. The pipeline lay barge for the Clipper wells is contracted for third quarter 2012 and will tie in both the GC 300 #4 and #2 wells to the Murphy Oil operated Front Runner production facility. ATP operates Clipper and presently owns a 100% working interest.
Lease operating expense for the third quarter 2011 was $27.7 million ($23.5 million recurring and $4.2 million workover expenses) compared to $27.5 million ($21.6 million recurring and $5.9 million workover expenses) for the third quarter 2010. Recurring operating expenses per Boe for the third quarter 2011 were $10.55 compared to $11.10 for the third quarter 2010, a 5% decrease. Per-unit costs improved as fixed costs were spread over increased production volumes. Workover expenses in the third quarter of 2011 were primarily from well work and pipeline remediation at the company’s Gomez Hub.
ATP recorded a net loss attributable to common shareholders of $5.6 million or $(0.11) per basic and diluted share for the third quarter 2011, compared to $58.4 million or $(1.15) per basic and diluted share for the same 2010 period.
Samengevat:
BeantwoordenVerwijderen-15% meer olie geproduceerd
- Revenues van 102.1 naar 170.1 miljoen
- nieuwe bron online (maar wel iets later)
- Kosten ongeveer gelijk gebleven
- Net loss / share aanzienlijk verbeterd voor de shareholder.
Toch reageert de markt zeer sterk. Heb zelf nog niet zo'n scherpe blik op olie-bedrijven, maar zie ik iets over het hoofd?
Jij tevreden over de resultaten Precies?
Hendrik,
BeantwoordenVerwijderenhet viel mij niet tegen, maar 'de markt' had meer verwacht, de verwachte (Q-exit-)productie van 40.000 BOE per dag is uitgesteld tot jan. en dat viel velen tegen.
Door de enorme shortpositie wordt trouwens vrijwel ieder bericht negatief uitgelegd (door de shorters).
Contrair kopen is kopen waar anderen verkopen (meestal vanwege emotie). Maar is dit emotie, of legitieme reden tot zorg? Aantal berichtjes van Messageboard op Yahoo af;
BeantwoordenVerwijderen------------------------------------------------
1. Management has crapped in its nest and now has zero credibility.
2. They are up to their necks in debt and it's only going to get worse going forward.
3. They cannot fund their capex and their vendors may not be willing to help as they grow weaker.
4. The global financial system is on the brink of collapse.
I may be a buyer of puts, but that is all.
------------------------------------------------
westboro -- please please do not sink anymore of your money into this company. they have had 2 1/2 yrs to right the ship and instead have driven it into the rocks. Management should do the right thing - like the Japanese used to do and take a huge dose of cyanide. They have over promised, over hyped , and under delivered at every turn. Please help yourself and buy CJES with what you can salvage from ATPG sales. I own CJES and they reported a great qtr tonight and they should earn well over 4 bucks in 2012 with practically no debt and sells for 20 bucks for a forward p/e of 5 .... I used to own this pig and was a staunch supporter but i sold ATPG in 2010 and never once regreted it. I urge all longs in ATPG to consider their position and see what they can do to get out of it before it is too late.
------------------------------------------------
Hendrik,
BeantwoordenVerwijderendie CJES is gedaald van ca 30 naar ca 15.
Zoals al eerder gezegd: het grote aantal negatievelingen op het ATPG-forum is direct verbonden met het grote aantal shorters in ATPG.
Feit is dat ATPG in ca een jaar tijd enorme vorderingen heeft gemaakt, terwijl toch de koers in deze periode fors is geduikeld, dit bij een zeer gunstige olieprijs.
Feit is ook dat hoe lager de koers, hoe minder mensen nog durven te kopen, die zich dan even later weer voor hun kop slaan omdat de koers weer 50% hoger staat.
Bedankt voor de reactie hoor. Ik zit er zelf nog niet in, dus dit is geen emotionele wanhoopsdaad. Maar twijfel wel sterk. Zie ook;
BeantwoordenVerwijderenhttp://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/11/10/atp-oil--gas-shares-plunged-what-you-need-to-know.aspx
-----------------------------------
I would stay away from this stock right now and wait for production to improve before jumping into shares and trying to catch a falling knife.
-----------------------------------
Nou vertrouw ik zelf Motley's niet zo heel sterk, maar van die 2 miljard; dat zuigen ze niet uit hun duim lijkt me
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ATP-Oil-May-Miss-2012-Bond-bloomberg-3000700575.html?x=0&l=1
BeantwoordenVerwijderenNou nog eentje dan;
BeantwoordenVerwijderenhttp://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/11/10/heres-how-atp-oil--gas-may-be-failing-you.aspx
De laatste presentatie:
BeantwoordenVerwijderenhttp://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NDM5OTE4fENoaWxkSUQ9NDYxNTU2fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1
NOVEMBER 10, 2011, 6:48 PM ET
BeantwoordenVerwijderenATP CFO Says Oil & Gas Co. in Control of Destiny
By Ryan Dezember and Matt Wirz
ATP Oil & Gas Corp. stocks and bonds continued to fall Thursday amid concerns about the offshore oil producer’s $2 billion debt load and fears of a cash crunch.
The Houston company said this week in its quarterly securities filing that it faced a working capital deficit of $260 million at the end of September. ATP had been hard hit by the drilling slow-down that followed last summer’s Gulf of Mexico oil spill, and has faced delays and increased costs at its deep-water Gulf of Mexico projects.
ATP’s $1.5 billion 11.875% bond due 2015 fell 16% to 71 cents on the dollar Thursday from 85 cents Tuesday, according to MarketAxess. Shares are down more than 30% in the last two sessions, leaving the company with a market capitalization of about $374 million.
On Thursday, Global Hunter Securities put out a note downgrading the bonds on “bankruptcy concerns.” The firm’s analysts have said they value ATP at about $3.15 billion.
ATP Chief Financial Officer Al Reese Jr. said in an interview Thursday that while the Gulf of Mexico-focused explorer has seen tough times since last summer’s oil spill there, suggestions that the company is sinking into bankruptcy are “punitive.”
“Right now we believe we have complete control of our destiny and we have no plans to miss any interest payments,” Mr. Reese said.
ATP sold $1.5 billion in bonds on April 19, 2010, the day before the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig, which was operated by BP PLC, exploded, killing 11 workers and touching off the worst offshore oil spill in U.S. history.
The proceeds from ATP’s bond sale were largely aimed at the company’s Telemark Hub, a deep sea project with four oil wells. Though ATP was among the first producers to receive drilling permits this spring once U.S. regulators lifted a ban on deep-water projects, Telemark’s completion will likely delayed by 18 months, Mr. Reese said.
Deep-water wells can take years to plan and drill, and in its securities filing ATP said it has limited ability to drill new wells to boost production and cash flow.
To free up cash, the company has renegotiated payment to a key manufacturer in China, sold convertible preferred shares, delayed some projects and arranged to pay vendors using royalties from its wells rather than up-front cash, it said this week in a filing.
“Right now we believe we have complete control of our destiny and we have no plans to miss any interest payments”.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenMooie uitspraak die zo van een Griekse politicus afkomstig zou kunnen zijn.
Het feit dat je een 11.875 obligatie voor 71% kunt kopen, dus met ca. een 16,7% rendement zegt al veel over het vertrouwen van de markt in ATPG.
Als je de balans ook bekijkt, is het negatieve werkkapitaal ook gestegen van 144 naar 260 miljoen in het laatste kwartaal.
Een verschil van 116 miljoen, ongeveer gelijk aan de investeringen. Wijst erop dat ze de investeringen niet meer op LT gefinancierd krijgen.
Dit is wel een goed ATPG artikel op Seeking Alpha: http://seekingalpha.com/article/306895-atp-oil-gas-still-a-tomorrow-story
BeantwoordenVerwijderenhet laatste stuk van bovengenoemd artikel:
BeantwoordenVerwijderen-------------------------------------
Where does this leave investors? The simple answer is: wanting more. More clarity and transparency on production is essential to create forecast creditability. As recently as six weeks ago, production was forecast to be 20% higher, there would be no need for additional NPIs and 2012 cap ex would be within ocf constraints. Clearly, that is not the case and at some point over the past six weeks, management should have fessed up to their production problems and schedule changes.
Investors want higher production and the ocf that comes with it. The product is in the ground as shown by reserves, but investors need the cash flow it represents in the bank. Within the difficulties of deepwater oil drilling and production, investors are still waiting for their payoff.
It is obvious management was taken by surprise by these events. Since mid-year, insider buying has been well documented at prices that are now substantially higher, and it would be excessive to accuse management of purchasing over $2.5 million of shares in the open market if they knew share prices would collapse by 50%. However, their history of over-promising and under-delivering continues unabated.
As management and investors know, ongoing production levels of 25 mboe/d is insufficient to continue their over-leveraged debt service and ambitious cap ex program.
2012 was previously billed as a game changing year. Now, it appears to be another year of muddling along, struggling to reach the 40 mboe/d required to internally fund cap ex and NPI payments. With this revelation, share prices are being hammered – again. The shorts have no real sense of urgency to cover and long investors have seen their short-term production targets evaporate. Not a pretty picture nor a set-up for substantially higher equity prices soon.
While not in danger of defaulting on its debt, the current and anticipated production indicates, as seems to be historically the case, a longer timeframe for ATP to realize its potential. With tax loss selling season drawing closer and inadequate production growth catalysts in the short term, ATPG continues to be a “tomorrow” story.
The bottom line is, like so many other promising oil and gas outfits, the prospects are there, the market pricing is there, and the oil reserves are there. However, if this management team is unable to execute, there are others that can, and maybe will.
As always, investors should conduct their own due diligence, should develop their own understanding of these potential opportunities, and should determine how it may fit their current financial situation.
Disclosure: I am long ATPG. Author has been a shareholder since 2007
George Fisher »
commentaar: ATPG daalt vandaag naar een nieuw dieptepunt sinds 2008/9, ca 5,50 gezien.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenHier is slechts een reden voor: pure angst (zoals we de laatste tijd zo vaak gezien hebben).
Kan ATPG dan failliet gaan...???
Alles kan, maar aangezien er nog ca 3,5 jaar te gaan zijn, voordat de grote lening moet worden afgelost, is dat zeer onwaarschijnlijk (bij verder ca gelijkblijvende omstandigheden).
De DGA's hebben nog ca 3,5 jaar om met oplossingen te komen en zullen in noodgevallen liever het bedrijf geheel of gedeeltelijk verkopen, dan het failliet laten gaan.
Verder wijs ik erop dat de productie in de Noordzee (via de Octabuoy) de huidige productie makkelijk kan doen verdubbelen tegen lagere kosten en met hogere opbrengsten.
ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG): ATPG is engaged in oil and natural gas exploration and production in the Gulf of Mexico, the United Kingdom and the Dutch sectors of the North Sea. Mega funds added a net $19 million to their $92 million prior quarter position, and taken together mega funds hold 20.3% of the outstanding shares, significantly less than their 26.4% weighting in the group. The top buyer was Credit Suisse AG ($18 million), and the top holders were Vanguard Group ($23 million) and Credit Suisse AG ($21 million). Overall, 130 institutions hold 57.0% of ATPG shares, with Aletheia Research & Management ($60 million) and Vanguard Group being the largest holders with 11.1% and 4.4% of the outstanding shares respectively.
BeantwoordenVerwijderen--------------------------------------
http://seekingalpha.com/article/307684-small-cap-energy-exploration-picks-by-the-world-s-largest-fund-managers?source=yahoo
De insiders blijven gewoon kopen:
BeantwoordenVerwijderenhttp://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1123647.htm
Ja, maar die bleven ook kopen toen het op 15 dollar stond...
BeantwoordenVerwijderenHendrik,
BeantwoordenVerwijderenook insiders en groot-aandeelhouders kunnen de koers niet voorspellen, het gaat natuurlijk om het feit dat ze NU kopen en dat deze directieleden kennelijk geen (semi)faillissement verwachten.
Wel grappig; ik las ergens de theorie dat ze dit zouden doen om zichzelf juridisch in te dekken. Dat als het failliet gaat, dat ze kunnen zeggen; ja wij wisten het ook niet, kijk maar; we kochten zelfs nog aandelen!
BeantwoordenVerwijderenVolledige onzin of kern van waarheid?
Hendrik,
BeantwoordenVerwijderenalles wat positief is aan dit bedrijf wordt negatief uitgelegd door de partijen die short zitten.
En nogmaals: we praten over een mogelijk probleem in 2015...!!
Als de productie volgend jaar weer achterblijft, dan zullen ze het bedrijf verkopen; het gaat dus niet failliet.!!
The conference call revealed the following:
BeantwoordenVerwijderenThe first Telemark well which was at the Atwater 63 block was originally advertised by ATP as the one well that would be the most prolific producer. Original estimates revealed in the 2008 Q4 conference call were for the Atwater 63 well to produce at 7,000 to 10,000 boe/day. In early 2010 after drilling this well tested at 10,700 barrels of oil equivalent a day which sounded great. Through 2010 however it became evident that there was a problem with the well at Atwater 63, with production rates only in the 2,000 to 3,000 boe/day range. In the conference call last week ATP disclosed that the well is being produced only every other month for pressurization reasons and at a rate of only 1,000 boe/day. ATP expects that ultimately the reserves recovered here will be 90% of what was originally expected. 1,000 boe/day versus expectations of 7,000 boe/day.
The second Telemark well which was at Mississippi Canyon 941 has performed much better. Original production rates from the well which commenced late in 2010 were for rates in excess of the expected 7,000 boe/day. There is one minor problem which was revealed in last week’s conference call which is that sleeve has been closed on the lower zone in the well in order to reduce the amount of water being produced. Closing this sleeve has resulted in the shut in of 1,500 boe/day of production. ATP believes they can get this production back at relatively low cost.
The third Telemark well also at Mississippi Canyon 941 also initially looked great with initial rates in excess of 7,000 boe/day. However the conference call last week revealed that because of concerns over damaging the gravel pack ATP is only going to be able to produce the well at rates of 3,500 boe/day. There will not be any reserve implications of the lower rate, but there will be considerably less cash flow as a result of production being half of what was expected.
Hearing what all of these wells are currently producing at rattled me. Three wells that were expected to produce at 7,000 boe/day each or 21,000 boe/day combined are currently producing at roughly (1,000 + 7,000 + 3,500) = 11,500 boe/day (the 7,000boe/day for the first MC941 well is an estimate, it could be slightly higher).
Well over a billion dollars of debt has been taken on by this company to get at these reserves and the first three wells are producing at barely more than half of what was expected. My investment thesis on ATP was that the danger was on the balance sheet, not in what was going to come out of the ground. I had assumed that a company would not debt finance such a project without being virtually certain that they had a handle on what their reserves were capable of producing.
I thought the main risk was the company running out of cash before the Telemark wells were producing, not that the Telemark wells would not produce enough.
2)
BeantwoordenVerwijderenThere Are Some Positive Items as Well
These well results are very concerning obviously, but I’m not ready to give up on ATP. There have also been some recent unexpected positive developments:
1) The drilling of the fourth Telemark well found a nice surprise:
“ATP encountered 167 feet of additional net pay sands above pre-drill estimates. These sands are in addition to the 72 feet of logged net oil pay seen in the original target sand at the Morgus well located at MC 942 #2. Because of the considerable additional hydrocarbon-bearing sands, ATP is adjusting its completion plan to include two new gravel packs which will extend the projected completion time to late January 2012, and ATP expects a positive effect on production by extending the production life and third-party reserve estimates associated with MC 942.”
2) ATP’s Clipper property is much more significant than expected:
“The second Clipper well, located at Green Canyon (GC) 300 #4, in approximately 3,450 feet of water, encountered 56 feet of logged net oil pay confirming reserves previously booked. The 9-5/8 inch casing has been set at 15,778 feet measured depth through the pay intervals. The well will now be completed and tested. In July 2011, ATP successfully completed and flow tested the first Clipper well, GC 300 #2 ST #1, at a rate of 45.6 MMcf per day and 4,656 Bbls per day.”
3) ATP’s CEO and another insider have been buying shares in the open market: Here, here, and here.
I don’t own any shares and have no plans to buy any. The debt load was always frightening and the results from the Telemark wells leave me with no idea what I can count on in terms of production going forward.
I am however rooting for ATP management, ATP employees and ATP shareholders. Hopefully high oil prices can make up for the disappointments in production.
by Devon Shire
http://seekingalpha.com/article/308913-riding-the-atp-oil-and-gas-roller-coaster?source=yahoo
Shale Plays On Fire: KKR Buys Samson For $7.2B
BeantwoordenVerwijderenDespite a fragile global economy and snail’s pace-growth in the U.S., activity has been fierce in the oil and gas sector, particularly related to shale plays. On Wednesday, a group led by KKR announced it was acquiring the private energy company Samson for $7.2 billion, in what is lining up to be the year’s largest leveraged buyout.
The KKR-led group is buying all of Samson’s assets with the exception of its onshore Gulf Coast and offshore deep water Gulf of Mexico operations. The company will be renamed Samson Resources and COO David Adams will become chief executive.
KKR, along with Japanese conglomerate Itochu, Natural Gas Partners, and Crestview partners, will be buying interests in over 10,000 wells, 4,000 of which are operated by Samson, in the liquids rich Marcellus and Bakken shale, among other locations. Exxon Mobil and Chesapeake Energy are among the big companies that have been active in shale plays.
Samson was founded by Charles Schusterman in 1971 and grew to become one of the largest private energy groups in the country. Stacy Schusterman, daughter of Charles and Forbes 400 member Lynn Schusterman, had been in charge of the company since 2005.
At $7.2 billion, the KKR-Samson deal will be the year’s largest leveraged buyout, topping Kinetic Partners’ $5.7 billion acquisition of Del Monte. The KKR-led group didn’t disclose how it was going to pay for the operation, but it reportedly has lined up $4.5 billion from committed lenders including JPMorgan, according to Bloomberg.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
commentaar: als ik de familie Schusterman was, dan zou ik nu snel een bod doen op ATPG....!!!
Tsja, en ik zou dan Tournigan kopen.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenEn heel veel bieden.
Weer eens iets anders dan die smerige olie.
Maar ja, ben ook niet helemaal objectief als grootaandeelhouder Tournigan.
De slapende reus die maar niet wakker wil worden......
http://seekingalpha.com/article/311518-is-atpg-a-potential-takeover-target?source=yahoo
BeantwoordenVerwijderenATP Marks Successful Clipper Well Test
BeantwoordenVerwijderenPress Release: ATP Oil & Gas Corporation – 7 minutes ago
Symbol Price Change
ATPG 7.06 +0.00
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ: ATPG - News) today announced the successful completion and testing of the second Clipper well at rates of 9,000 Bbls per day and 4.6 MMcf per day. When combined with the first Clipper well this brings the total test rates to approximately 13.7 MBbls of oil per day and 50.2 MMcf of natural gas per day or 22 MBbls equivalent per day (62% oil).
The second Clipper well is the #4 well located at Green Canyon 300 (GC 300) in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. The #4 well, located in approximately 3,450 feet of water, logged approximately 56 feet of net oil pay confirming reserves previously booked. The 9-5/8 inch casing was set at 15,778 feet measured depth through the pay intervals. In July 2011, ATP successfully completed and flow tested the first Clipper well, GC 300 #2 ST #1, at a rate of 4,656 Bbls per day and 45.6 MMcf per day.
The pipeline lay barge for the Clipper wells is contracted for third quarter 2012 and will tie in both the GC 300 #4 and #2 wells to the Murphy Oil-operated Front Runner production facility. ATP operates Clipper and presently owns a 100% working interest.
Uitgaande van een huidige productie van ca 24.000 BOE per dag, zorgen alleen de beide Clipper wells voor bijna een verdubbeling van de dagproductie.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenYahoo forum:
BeantwoordenVerwijderen-----------
Re: ATP Marks Successful Clipper Well Test 25 minutes ago
I think this is new information is immensely positive.
Assuming that their test results are 100% correct, (and no unexpected production problems occur at clipper as with no.3 telemark well), then vendors/suppliers will be willing to wait and allow ATP to delay/defer further payments.
This is critical, and crucial for ATP in order not to potentially dilute investors with equity/external financing.
Intuitively, ATP after the 4th telemark well will produce around 31mboe/d. With an added 22mboe/d (if i haven't read incorrectly), then ATP should be producing around 47-52mboe/d buy 2012 year-end.
Regardless, i see a good entry point into ATP in around february/march (waiting for the israel catalyst which could determine ATP's hugely successful future). Until then, ATP shall be crawling along. EVEN if israel doesn't prove to be fruitful, won't matter that much as there is still huge potential.....but just a set back.
Although ATP has a capital shortfall, they will not require restructuring of debt, and i don't see them having problems deferring payments to vendors for the rest of 2012 given these clipper results. This was critically needed to get ATP back on track. But it'll be slow progress (6 months or so), now, I'm just sitting on the sidelines. JMHO
Good luck all......
Yahoo forum:
BeantwoordenVerwijderen---
Re: Add clipper to current 30,398 BBLS oil per day whats worth? 26 minutes ago
Our last quarter was $170M at 25,000boe/d
So $170M/25,000= $6,800. per boe per quarter.
Or: $170M/ 91days= $1,868,132per day/ 25,000= $74.73 per boe.
Clipper will add: 22,000 x $6,800 = $149.6M per quarter or $598M/year.
But first we will be adding the last well at Telemark in January 2012:
My Est 6,000boe/d x $6800 $40.8M per quarter.
So looking for now Q3 :
30k boe/d x $6,800= $204M (Per quarter)
Add the $26M from selling the deep to total $230M
Q1
Add two months of last well at Telemark $204 + $27 = $231M
Q2 (with 3 month if the Telemark well) $204M+$41M=$245M
Q3 about the same with excitement building about the Israel projects.
Then to close 2012 with adding Clipper’s two wells:
$204 + $40.8 + $149.6M = $394.4M per quarter or $1.44Billion revenues rate.
$1.44B/ 51m common= revenues per share of $47.84
Price at 2x RPS = $95.68
Sentiment : Strong Buy
ATP Sells Deep Rights at Telemark Hub
BeantwoordenVerwijderenHOUSTON, Dec 01, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE)--
ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ: ATPG) today announced it sold its interest in the deep rights (below 23,499 TVDSS) in one of its Telemark Hub properties to a third party for an undisclosed amount resulting in an estimated gain of $26 million. In addition to the cash proceeds, ATP retained a 1% overriding royalty interest.
Leland E. Tate, President, stated, "ATP is eager to encourage exploration into deeper horizons at ATP's Telemark Hub and in close proximity to ATP's existing infrastructure, the ATP Titan. The ATP Titan has a design capacity of 25 MBbls/d of oil and 50 MMcf/d of gas and can accommodate additional production."
ATP operates the deepwater Telemark Hub with a 100% working interest and owns 100% of the subsidiary that owns the ATP Titan and associated pipelines and infrastructure.
----------------------------------------
commentaar: ik vind het verbazingwekkend dat kennelijk iemand bereid is om 26 miljoen te betalen voor het RECHT om nog dieper te boren bij de Telemark, kennelijk denkt men dat daar heel veel olie te vinden is.
Toch raar he Precies dat het aandeel weer lager is gesloten, ondanks het redelijk goede nieuws.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenForbes INVESTING | 12/12/2011
BeantwoordenVerwijderenGrab This Energy Stock Even Cheaper Than Chief Executive Officer Bulmahn Did
There’s an old saying on Wall Street about insider buying: there are many possible reasons to sell a stock, but only one reason to buy. Back on November 16, ATP Oil & Gas Corp’s Chief Executive Officer, T. Paul Bulmahn, invested $197,700.00 into 30,000 shares of ATPG, for a cost per share of $6.59. Bargain hunters tend to pay particular attention to insider buys like this one, because presumably the only reason an insider would take their hard-earned cash and use it to buy stock of their company in the open market, is that they expect to make money.
In trading on Monday, bargain hunters could buy shares of ATP Oil & Gas Corp (NASD: ATPG) and achieve a cost basis even cheaper than Bulmahn, with shares changing hands as low as $6.58 per share. ATP Oil & Gas Corp shares are currently trading off about 5.5% on the day. The chart below shows the one year performance of ATPG shares, versus its 200 day moving average:
Looking at the chart above, ATPG’s low point in its 52 week range is $5.53 per share, with $21.40 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $6.70. By comparison, below is a table showing the prices at which insider buying was recorded over the last six months:
Purchased Insider Title Shares Price/Share Value
06/15/2011 T. Paul Bulmahn Chief Executive Officer 65,000 $15.38 $999,700.00
08/12/2011 Burt A. Adams Director 139,500 $10.74 $1,498,230.00
08/17/2011 Walter Wendlandt Director 3,000 $10.76 $32,280.00
08/19/2011 Gerard J. Swonke Director 2,000 $10.32 $20,640.00
08/31/2011 Brent M. Longnecker Director 4,000 $13.81 $55,240.00
09/23/2011 George Royalty Edwards Director 1,000 $9.30 $9,302.00
11/15/2011 T. Paul Bulmahn Chief Executive Officer 35,000 $5.85 $204,750.00
11/16/2011 T. Paul Bulmahn Chief Executive Officer 30,000 $6.59 $197,700.00
11/15/2011 Burt A. Adams Director 100,000 $6.49 $649,000.00
ATPG operates in the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sector, among companies like Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA) which is down about 3.7% today, and Anadarko Petroleum Corp (NYSE: APC) trading lower by about 2.9%. Below is a three month price history chart comparing the stock performance of ATPG, versus APA and APC.
Speculating On 4 Oil And Gas Stocks With Massive Upside Potential
BeantwoordenVerwijderen5 comments | December 14, 2011 | includes: ATPG, GMXR, ROYL, SD
ATP Oil & Gas
Trading at less than a third of its 52-week high, ATP Oil & Gas is poised to go from a loss in 2011 to what many analysts see as a solid gain in 2012. Because the company is expected to have higher production from its wells in the Gulf of Mexico, the increase will favorably affect its reserves and margins.
Two key factors in considering a purchase of ATPG stock are found in the numbers. Over the past month, several insiders have made purchases, including a director who purchased 100,000 shares and the CEO who grabbed 65,000 more. In addition, many analysts note that the company is heavily shorted, and it is poised for a big rally should the company receive any positive news in the near future.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/313837-speculating-on-4-oil-and-gas-stocks-with-massive-upside-potential?source=yahoo
Stay Away From ATP Oil And Gas
BeantwoordenVerwijderen3 comments | December 29, 2011 | about: ATPG, includes: EXXI, NOG, WTI
Not to long ago, I was a committed shareholder to ATP Oil and Gas (ATPG). The company does offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, North Sea, and soon to be in Israel.
While the company is growing revenue at a rapid pace, the company is hemorrhaging money. A few months ago, Moody's came out and stated that ATP did not have sufficient cash flow to cover its bond payments in the future, which would eventually lead to default. Moody's said the the company was not pumping enough oil and did not have enough assets to cover its liabilities. This would require a restructuring of the company's debt.
The problem with ATPG is that management has a tendency to overestimate and underdeliver. This causes an issue with investors who have a difficult time believing the company's potential. Management has been citing a 40,000 BOE/pd target, however, it has had a tough time even crossing the 30k mark.
The problem with ATP is that the interest payments on the debt alone stops the company from achieving profitability. Not to mention, management has not been upfront about the company's operations. A couple of months ago, an analyst asked a question to management regarding poor production on a well. It turned out, the well was taking in a large amount of sand, which caused production to be less than expected. The interesting point about this is that management should have communicated this to shareholders when the problem arised.
It's disappointing to see the company I believed in to have fallen so hard. There is a very strong chance that the company could go bankrupt within the next two years. The company is running out of financing options and all current options are either too expensive or will dilute existing shareholders. This year the company issued a $150 million of a preferred stock. The preferred yields 8% and has a conversion ratio of 4.5 shares. That's quite a hefty rate for a company that cannot even stay profitable. Even the bond market has been getting worried of a potential restructuring. The bonds have fallen so much that the YTM is around 30%.
ATP needs money in order to expand and with the lack of liquidity the company has, it may be at a standstill. In order for the company to maximize its Titan well production to 25k BOE/pd, they have to invest a large chunk of money. The company has one more chance to ramp up production before the next interest payment is due in May. If it turns out the next Telemark numbers are not up to par with expectations, expect a massive sell-off and a potential for restructuring.
ATP Oil and Gas is a highly leveraged company and a very speculative play. At this point there is a 50% chance of bankruptcy or restructuring, which makes the common very unattractive.
2)
BeantwoordenVerwijderenIf you are trying to seek exposure to small cap O&G companies, I know three that are much safer and profitable.
Energy XXI (Bermuda) Limited (EXXI), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, and operation of oil and natural gas properties onshore in Louisiana and Texas, and offshore in the Gulf of Mexico.
EXXI has been growing at a rapid pace. The company has been primarily acquiring wells that are profitable from major players. Just like ATP, the majority of its exposure is in the GOM. The company is expected to grow at 10% annualy for the next five years. In its most recent quarter, the company beat expectations by 28%. The company currently produces 42,000 BOE per day and that is set to continue to rise. The stock has a forward P/E of 7.9.
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., (NOG) an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the Williston Basin Bakken play, the United States.
The great thing about NOG is that not only do you get a oil play, but also exposure to its Bakken region. The Bakken region has been growing rapidly and is set to help make the United States a net exporter of energy. The company is growing so fast that the fourth quarter production numbers will be almost 30% more than the third quarter. NOG is still acquiring property rights and continues to invest its cash flows into its business. The stock has a forward P/E of 17, which is quite good for a company experiencing such a high level of growth.
W&T Offshore, Inc. (WTI) engages in the acquisition, exploitation, exploration, and development of oil and natural gas properties primarily in the Gulf of Mexico.
W&T's management has done a great job for shareholders. The company is quick to implement proper strategies that would help maximize profit. Recently, when ports in Mexico closed, W&T was able to charge a premium on oil as management knew they could maximize profit. W&T also has a nice 4% yield and this month announced a special dividend payment of 3%. The company is generating plenty of cash and is making sure shareholders reap the benefits. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.4.
There are plenty of stronger companies out there besides ATPG that are less leveraged and very profitable. The issue with ATPG is that it is almost completely out of financing options. The only other methods the company can use to generate cash is by selling assets or rights. However, this is not feasible as asset sales would be less production, which means less profits. ATP is going to have a tough year ahead and 2012 will ultimately determine whether it can meet its bond payment or not. That's why I recommend investors to stay away unless you are really willing to take the risk.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours - Kraken
http://seekingalpha.com/article/316473-stay-away-from-atp-oil-and-gas?source=yahoo
De nieuwste presentatie:
BeantwoordenVerwijderenhttp://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NDUxMzM4fENoaWxkSUQ9NDc2MzgzfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1
Drilling Down on ATPG
BeantwoordenVerwijderenBy David Talley - January 5, 2012 |
David is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinions of our bloggers and are not formally edited.
On slide 6 of ATP Oil & Gas' (NASDAQ: ATPG) September 12th presentation at the Rodman & Renshaw Annual Global Investor Conference, ATP values their shares at up to $116. With shares trading around $7.5 the market obviously does not believe the valuations presented at the conference. With such a discrepancy in prices, I thought a closer look at the company was warranted.
ATP provides two valuations in the presentation, the first using SEC oil and gas prices the second using current strip prices. In the first valuation, the company claims the value of its assets at $5.8 billion ($1 billion in infrastructure, $2.2 billion in probable PV-10 reserves, and $2.6 billion in proved PV-10 reserves). Netting out $2.3 billion in debt and dividing by shares outstanding, gives a value of around $68 per share. Using current strip prices, assets are valued at $8.3 billion ($1 billion in infrastructure, $3.3 billion in probable PV-10 reserves, and $4.0 billion in proved PV-10 reserves), which implies a share price of $116.
So why does the market not believe these numbers? ATP's valuation is only correct if they are able get the assets out of the ground without diluting shares, issuing new debt, or selling off assets. If ATP is unable to produce enough oil and gas to meet their interest payments, they would be forced to raise capital. However, current share prices imply (using the $5.8 billion asset valuation) an additional 3.1 billion in debt raises, a dilution of shares by 815% (raised at $7.5 a share), or $3.1billion in asset sales. These situations all seem far fetched, but keep in mind that equity would most likely be raised below current prices and assets would be sold for less than their value to the company (most of ATP's assets are cast offs that larger oil companies found unprofitable for them).
The last piece of information that adds to the puzzle is the over $2 million worth of shares bought by director Burt Adams in the second half of last year. If ATP were thinking of diluting shareholders, it seems odd that an insider would buy such a large stake in the company. Thus, this information leads me to believe that management believes no dilution is necessary to keep the company running.
So what does all this information tell me? I believe that management is too optimistic in its company's prospects. ATP management has historically over-promised and under-delivered, and I am skeptical, like the market, that ATP will be able to produce enough oil and gas to meet interest payments.
However, with that said, the market may still be overly pessimistic on the name. When discounting the asset values above and comparing with similar companies, there could be value in ATP's shares. Overall, the situation is too confusing for me to take a position, but at current prices I would be more inclined to play to the long side with options, taking a small position and defining my risk.
ATP Oil And Gas - A $30 Million Hail Mary On A Trillion Cubic Feet Of Natural Gas
BeantwoordenVerwijderenJanuary 7, 2012 | about: ATPG, e
Like a moth to a flame this week I found myself listening to the most recent presentation from ATP Oil and Gas (ATPG). I am a former shareholder with no real interest in ever being one again, yet I can't help but tune in to what ATP is up to.
ATP is one of those companies that has a story that is either going to make shareholders buying stock today very happy, or very sad. ATP has saddled itself with an enormous debt load in relation to its current cash flow. The key word for the hopeful being current, because ATP does have the oil reserves in its possession to ramp that cash flow up significantly.
That is if the debt doesn't do them in first.
ATP has an interesting business model. As a relatively small company ATP targets offshore oil and gas properties that are too small for the majors and large independents to bother with, yet too expensive to develop for the smaller producers.
Why is ATP as a smaller producer able to develop these properties? Because ATP is willing to borrow more money than anyone else is. Is ATP reckless with its balance sheet? I think probably. But for twenty years the company has been operating this way and made its founder pretty darn wealthy.
ATP explains the enormous balance sheet leverage it uses as being sensible because the company does no exploration work. ATP focuses exclusively on acquiring on the cheap proven oil and gas reserves that the big boys don't want and developing them. In other words ATP can use more leverage than most oil companies because the company knows that the cash it is spending is going to result in cash flow. ATP isn't spending tens of millions on exploration wells that could result in no financial return.
Well, until now, that is. And actually ATP isn't spending a lot of money, the company is going to spend about $30 million on its 40% share of an exploration well offshore Israel. $30 million isn't a lot even for a cash starved overleveraged company like ATP.
In case you haven't heard, there has been some pretty interesting exploration work going on offshore Israel.
2)
BeantwoordenVerwijderenATP is a small company but one with a large amount of Deepwater oil and gas production experience. That experience led to ATP getting in on a big target of its own offshore Israel as the owners of the block did not have the experience to move forward without help.
ATP has an interest in three blocks offshore Israel: Shimshon, Daniel East and Daniel West.
In mid 2012 ATP and its partner Isramco Negev will drill an exploration well on the Shimshon property. ATP has a 40% interest and the cost to ATP is estimated to be between $25 million and $29 million.
The potential of this Shimshon exploration target as laid out in this ATP presentation is 2.5 to 3.4 TCF of gross natural gas which would be 0.9 to 1.2 TCF net to ATP.
At the end of December 2010 ATP's total booked reserves were as follows:
Proved reserves - 126 million barrels
Probable reserves - 85 million barrels
Total Proved and Probable reserves - 211 million barrels
Should the Shimshon exploration well turn out to be successful and ATP end up with close to 1TCF of natural gas it would basically double the size of ATP's reserves. And the global price for natural gas is much higher than the depressed price here in the United States, so it would much more valuable than if discovered in the Gulf of Mexico.
Of course ATP would then have to somehow come up with its share of the cash to develop the Shimshon property, but a successful result would certainly give ATP a big asset to play with.
ATP always has a good story to tell, a story about being on the cusp of a large production increase that is about to effectively deleverage the balance sheet. Maybe someday that story will become reality.
Devon Shire
ATP Oil & Gas Corp (ATPG) - ATPG is a company engaged in the acquisition, development and production of natural gas and oil properties in the Mediterranean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea. It has a marketing capitalization of $350M. At time of writing this, they were trading at about $6.85, at the low end of their 52-week range . Their earnings per share is -7.61 and their beat 3.1. According to this analysis on Seeking Alpha, their recent announcement to spend $30M on a 40% interest in an offshore natural gas exploration well near Israel hasn't thrilled the market especially given that ATPG is already leveraged fairly heavily and their income prospects are looking quite bleak relative to what they would need to ramp it up. Their forward strategic focus in on low risk projects that allow them to develop properties (note: they currently have a 98% success rate at converting undeveloped properties into production). They may be biting over more than they can chew however. We think the rewards outweight the risk and think speculative investors should consider building a position on selloffs.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/320479-3-oil-gas-stocks-to-consider-2-to-avoid?source=yahoo
The Preferred Way To Play ATP
BeantwoordenVerwijderen5 comments | January 25, 2012 | about: ATPGP.PK, includes: ATPG, EPL, EXXI, SGY, WTI
ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG) is something of a speculative play. The business has a lot of upside: ATP has more potential reserves relative to proved than almost any E&P, and its hub strategy will provide it with enormous economies of scale if the potential reserves are realized. Further, a project it is working on in the Med, offshore Israel, could prove to be a natural gas bonanza. However, the last earnings call outlined a situation that left many wondering whether bankruptcy would be reached before riches. Liquidity is tight and the company is already highly leveraged from a rapid expansion of reserves and infrastructure in previous years. Following the call, the company's bonds and stock both got hammered and have more or less stayed there.
etc. etc.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/321947-the-preferred-way-to-play-atp?source=yahoo
ATP Closes $25 Million Overriding Royalty Interest Sale, Updates Telemark Status, Announces Conference Date
BeantwoordenVerwijderenPress Release: ATP Oil & Gas Corporation – 1 hour 38 minutes ago
Symbol Price Change
ATPG 6.38 +0.00
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ:ATPG - News) today announced it has sold a $25 million dollar denominated limited term overriding royalty interest in its Gomez Hub . Similar to previous overriding royalty interests sold by ATP , the purchaser will receive a designated portion of the revenues produced at the Gomez Hub in the Gulf of Mexico until obtaining the amount of their investment plus a designated return. At the conclusion of the override all of the remaining interest will revert to ATP.
ATP also announced an update on its development activities at the Telemark Hub. As of February 2, 2012, ATP has completed the drilling of the Mississippi Canyon (“MC”) 942 #2 well to a measured depth of 21,400 feet. As previously noted, three productive sands have been logged with at total of 239 feet of pay. ATP has set 7-5/8 inch casing across the B and C Sands and a 5-1/2 inch liner through the S Sand. The S Sand, at a depth of 21,010 to 21,090 feet, has been perforated and completed.
After completion of the next regularly scheduled BOP test, ATP will move to the completion of the C Sand which will be perforated at a depth of 17,560 to 17,730 feet. As soon as the C Sand is completed, ATP will begin completing the B Sand which will be perforated at a depth of 17,410 to 17,480 feet. An additional BOP test will be required before the completion of the B Sand.
ATP estimates first production immediately upon completing these activities scheduled during first quarter 2012. Plans are to begin production in the S Sand. ATP intends to comingle the B and C Sands with the S Sand when the pressure equalizes between the three sands.
ATP’s next regularly scheduled conference presentation is at the J.P. Morgan High Yield Conference being held February 27 – 28 in Miami where additional updates on its Telemark Hub as well as a preliminary estimate of its independent third party year-end 2011 proved and probable reserves will be provided. A previously scheduled conference appearance with Credit Suisse the week of February 6 unfortunately had to be cancelled. Any previously scheduled one-on-ones may be rearranged by contacting ATP’s investor relations office. The cancellation was due to scheduling conflicts including funeral services for a family member of an ATP executive.
ATP Launches $140 Million Expansion of First Lien Facility
BeantwoordenVerwijderenSymbol Price Change
ATPG 6.81 -0.15
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ: ATPG - News) today announced it has commenced the process to expand its First Lien Senior Secured Term Loan facility. Based on preliminary estimates of its year-end 2011 reserve report, ATP believes its SEC pre-tax PV-10 of proved reserves will be no less than $4.0 billion and that, as a result, ATP expects it can add borrowings of approximately $140 million to its existing facility, which currently stands at $208 million. ATP expects to have commitments from lenders to participate in the expanded facility no later than early March with the additional funds available after the filing in mid-March of its year-end 2011 annual report on Form 10-K and reserve report.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
commentaar:
Bij een PV-10 waarde van z'n bewezen reserves ad 4 miljard kan ATPG dus maximaal ca 350 miljoen lenen bij een bank/financier.
Het geeft wel mooi aan dat bewezen (en producerende!) oliereserves op zee nauwelijks worden beschouwd als een serieus onderpand.
Een bedrijf als Xcite zal dus nooit geld kunnen lenen bij een bank op basis van reserves, zelfs bij het Bakken-gebeuren willen banken geen geld uitlenen op basis van reserves, ik ben het in ieder geval nog niet tegengekomen.
Definition of 'PV10'
VerwijderenPresent value of estimated future oil and gas revenues, net of estimated direct expenses, discounted at an annual discount rate of 10%. This nomenclature is most commonly used in the energy industry, and is used to estimate the present value of a company's proved oil and gas reserves.
Investopedia explains 'PV10'
In order to calculate PV10, an energy company's reservoir engineers develop a reserve report for every existing well and proved undeveloped well location. The reserve report takes into account each well's current production rate and forecast decline rate, and also its unique production costs and expenses to develop reserves. Future gross revenues are estimated by either using prevailing energy prices or applying an appropriate escalation rate. Non-property related and indirect expenses such as general and administrative overhead, debt service, and depletion and amortization are not considered in the computation of PV10.
ATP Provides Update on Reserves and Production
BeantwoordenVerwijderenPress Release: ATP Oil & Gas Corporation – 12 hours ago
Symbol Price Change
ATPG 7.15 +0.00
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ:ATPG - News) today announced an increase in its estimated year-end 2011 proved and probable pre-tax PV-10 value to $7.3 billion based on SEC pricing, up 52% from $4.8 billion at year-end 2010. ATP also provided an update on production for full-year 2011 which averaged an estimated 24.6 thousand barrels per day (MBoe/d), an increase of 17% over 2010.
Reserves – ATP estimates year-end 2011 proved reserves of 118.9 MMBoe compared to 126.1 MMBoe at year-end 2010. ATP estimates proved and probable reserves of 194.4 MMBoe at year-end 2011, compared to 211.3 MMBoe at year-end 2010. The changes were primarily a result of production of 9.0 MMBoe in 2011 and revisions to oil and gas reserves. On a Boe basis, ATP estimates that oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) represent 66% of its year-end 2011 proved reserves and 65% of proved and probable reserves, compared to 60% and 59%, respectively, at year-end 2010.
ATP estimates a year-end 2011 SEC pre-tax PV-10 value of $4.2 billion for its proved reserves and $7.3 billion for its proved and probable reserves, compared to $2.6 billion and $4.8 billion, respectively, at year-end 2010. This increase is primarily a result of pricing, but other factors include timing and an increase in oil and NGL reserves.
Since independent reservoir engineers are finalizing estimates of ATP's oil and natural gas reserves for year-end 2011, ATP will issue its final reserve amounts utilizing SEC pricing and reconciliation in conjunction with filing its Form 10-K, anticipated in March 2012.
Production - ATP's production in the fourth quarter 2011 averaged 24.8 MBoe/d compared to 24.2 MBoe/d in the third quarter 2011. The fourth quarter average benefited from a 1.4 MBoe/d recognition of royalty relief related to 2010 production. Not including this benefit, average production in the fourth quarter was 23.4 MBoe/d, of which 70% was oil, compared to 69% in the third quarter 2011. ATP intends to conduct the previously announced sleeve shift at the Mississippi Canyon (MC) 941 A-1 well in the first quarter 2012 after production is established at the MC 942 #2 well. This sleeve shift had previously been scheduled in the fourth quarter of 2011. ATP estimates that opening the sleeve in the MC 941 A-1 well will increase production by 1.5 MBoe/d.
ATP anticipates an increase in production from the completion of the MC 942 #2 well during the first quarter 2012 and an increase later in the year with the installation of the pipeline for the two Clipper wells that were completed and tested in 2011. The installation of the Clipper pipeline is scheduled to begin in the third quarter 2012 with production expected in the late third quarter/early fourth quarter 2012.
ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ:ATPG - News) today announced first oil production at its Mississippi Canyon (“MC”) Block 942 A-3 (#2) well, the fourth well at its Telemark Hub. The oil production rates are gradually being increased as the well goes through the initial stages of production. The early production rate performance has met expectations and the rate of oil production is being increased. Further information will be reported as it becomes available. The MC 942 A-3 well is located on the Morgus Field and is the fourth well brought on production at the Telemark Hub location utilizing the ATP Titan floating drilling and production platform.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenATP operates the deepwater Telemark Hub in approximately 4,000 feet of water with a 100% working interest and holds a 100% ownership in ATP Titan LLC which owns the ATP Titan and associated pipelines and infrastructure.
ATP Significantly Expands Liquidity Position
BeantwoordenVerwijderenPress Release: ATP Oil & Gas Corporation – 5 hours ago
Symbol Price Change
ATPG 8.47 +0.26
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ: ATPG - News) has allocated the previously announced First Lien expansion and received additional liquidity. The First Lien expansion was increased from $140 million to $155 million and the interest rate was reduced from a floating 9.00% to 8.75% per annum. In addition, the existing holders of the First Lien converted their fixed 9.00% interest rate to the floating 8.75%. Funding of the available amount is scheduled after the filing of the company’s Form 10-K.
As a result of asset sale transactions, ATP has also received additional liquidity of approximately $60 million during March 2012 and during the remainder of March 2012 the company expects to receive additional liquidity in excess of $100 million from asset sale transactions that are scheduled to close during March 2012.
This Oil Company Has Huge Potential
BeantwoordenVerwijderenBy Isac Simon | Motley Fool
April 18, 2012 |
ATP Oil & Gas (Nasdaq: ATPG ) is a heavily shorted stock, with more than 38% of its outstanding shares shorted at the time this article was written. While this makes for a good "short squeeze" call, I am a firm believer in investing by studying the fundamentals of a company. Here is my due diligence, weighing the company's pros and cons to see if it is a worthy investment.
Formed in 1991, the Texas-based company has been acquiring and developing oil and natural-gas properties in the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea. Last year the company acquired licenses to operate in the gas reserves of the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Israel. The company had estimated net proved reserves of 118.9 million barrels of oil equivalent at the end of 2011.
Buy
Approximately 75.9 MMboe of the total reserves are in the Gulf of Mexico, and almost 74% of proved reserves in the area are yet to be developed. Following the Deepwater Horizon disaster in 2010, the enforced ban saw many small-cap energy and petroleum companies operating in the Gulf struggle. The moratorium on drilling in the Gulf of Mexico is easing, and that's the biggest reason why ATP looks like a buy.
The company can now go back to business as usual and pull out those massive reserves. Peers working in the deep waters of the Gulf have also ramped up developmental activities. Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL ) has six projects under way, and production is due to come online in the first quarter this year. Similarly, Energy XXI (Nasdaq: EXXI ) , using its "acquire and exploit" strategy, has positioned itself to significantly ramp up production in the next few years. The Davy Jones play, one of its more promising fields, is almost ready for production. ATP is capable of the same, and the signs of a production hike look promising. Given current oil prices, they stand to make a lot of money.
Sell
There are two reasons to make this argument: very high leverage and faltering production. With just $65 million in cash and total debt at almost $2 billion, things do not look so rosy from a financial standpoint. The debt-to-equity ratio stood at 712%, and the current ratio is an unenviable 0.4 time. The company is also burning cash at a frenzied rate and may face serious liquidity problems if production falls. A case in context is GMX Resources (NYSE: GMXR ) , whose huge debt has seen its stock get hammered, falling 74% in the last 12 months. More recently the company successfully completed drilling on its fourth well in the Bakken shale, and share prices rocketed 33%. Production growth, I feel, is a must for ATP.
Hold
ATP has significant reserves and is increasing production. In February it brought its fourth well online in its Telemark Hub field in the Mississippi Canyon Block. Production at the Telemark Hub increased an astounding 191% in 2011 from the previous year, while overall production in the Gulf grew by a slower 54% due to the moratorium.
Secondly, the proportion of liquids in total production grew to 68% from 58% in 2010. This bodes well, especially since the market for natural gas has yet to pick up, while oil prices continue to hover above the $100 mark. Total revenue has been the highest in the last five years, and free cash flow has turned positive as well in 2011. That is definitely encouraging.
Third, the company is raising $500 million through a mixed offering, including senior debt. This should take care of ATP's working capital needs as it strives to develop its properties and add to production. The fact that there are takers for its debt, despite its leverage, speaks volumes about the potential of the company.
The Foolish bottom line
I would love to see the company turn around and post profits. Given the potential it has, I would hold on to the stock, despite the odds, and even think of increasing my position, given it's trading a lot cheaper than it was a year ago.
ATP Could Hit A Gold Mine With New Ashkelon Gas Well
BeantwoordenVerwijderenApril 30, 2012 | 1 comment | about: ATPG, includes: APC, BP, COG, E, ISRL
ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG) is currently involved in drilling an exploratory well 50 kilometers east of the Yam Tethys reserves offshore from Ashkelon, Israel. The company estimates that it will find no less than 2.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the area, which should have remarkable implications for the company's success and the sustainability of its stock. Though, the estimated probability of success is 15%. ATP is serving as Shimshon's operator in the scenario and Shimshon is owned partially by Isramco (ISRL). Isramco recently sold 10% of the license rights to Modiin Energy. ATP Oil & Gas itself has a 40% stake in Shimshon, a company I expect will do very well in the upcoming months, due to this exploratory well currently being dug. This partial ownership, in turn, will have very good consequences for ATP stock.
However, this may be the only good news for ATP, at present. Very recently, ATP stock was crowded with stockholders who wanted to sell their stock in the company - leading, ultimately, to an oversold status. This could, however, be good news for any bullish investors out there who have an interest in ATP stock. If you consider that the heavy selling trend may be in the process of exhausting itself, it could be time to start looking at entry point opportunities on the buy side which could, in the long run, benefit you greatly.
Investors have flocked to sell ATP stock as the company continues to slip. With few signs of progress on the horizon, aside from the Israel drilling, the stock may drop lower. Risk-taking investors could take the opportunity to buy low, though I can't say for sure that any growth is due for the foreseeable future.
The eyes of the world are on ATP competitor BP (BP), as it continues to battle the fallout of the Gulf oil spill two years after it occurred. Recently, an ex-employee of the company was released on bail following an appearance in court. Kurt Mix was accused of covering up the severity of the spill and hiding information indicating that the recovery measures BP put in place were not expected to work. BP insists that it is doing everything in its power to cooperate with the investigation and to preserve evidence so that the truth is revealed.
This arrest is likely to delay the approval of a preliminary settlement of $7.8 billion, BP is trying to negotiate with plaintiffs. In addition, a group of shrimp processors in the area insist that the courts hold off before making a final decision about the settlement amount. They feel that the settlement unfairly excludes them from being sufficiently compensated for the damage caused to their industry by the spill.
2)
BeantwoordenVerwijderenThe oil industry does not seem to have a lot of positive news lately. Even Chevron's (CVX) recent success in a lawsuit in Nigeria can be seen in a bad light. Although the company has been acquitted for all wrongdoing in the case where several Nigerians were killed, the ramifications of the lawsuit itself can be far reaching. Companies do not need to be in the press for negative reasons such as these, especially those that involve murder. Local Nigerians protested Chevron's activities in their area, claiming that the company was causing pollution. The protest, according to Chevron, turned violent and local Nigerian armed forces were contacted for help. The armed forces in question opened fire on the Nigerian protestors, killing two and wounding another. Again, however, Chevron was acquitted of all wrongdoing and looks to move forward. It will focus its attention, once more, on oil and gas production.
Anadarko Petroleum (APC) has recently made a discovery of a new gas source off the coast of Mozambique. This marks Anadarko as one of the few oil and gas companies in the press for positive manners, specifically in terms of gas production. With other competitors, including ATP struggling, look for this discovery to put Andarko ahead of the game, at least in the minds of oil and gas investors.
However, Anadarko is not the only company to have made a discovery in the area. Eni (E) has also made discoveries in the area and may therefore also benefit along with Anadarko. In addition, Mozambique authorities announced their intention to allow companies to bid for the right to drill in the areas where the gas was discovered. This may result in a bidding war, in which Andarko will have to release some of its cash. If it wins the bid, however, and the gas source turns to be plentiful, it will benefit Andarko considerably moving forward.
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) may be ATP's most successful competitor at the moment. While other companies flounder in lawsuits, Cabot has made moves to ensure fiscal success. One of the bigger projects it's currently involved with is a pipeline that will run from Pennsylvania to Tennessee and will carry enormous amounts of gas. Although Cabot will not be the primary owner of the pipeline, its 25% share will certainly make a difference for its stock. The pipeline is expected to come online in 2015, meaning that now would be the best time to buy Cabot stock, in my opinion. Assuming work with the pipeline continues successful until its launch, Cabot should have minimal investment and great success.
In the light of Cabot's success with its pipeline running through America, ATP must hope that it can find internationals success. Its new discovery could be a game changer for the company, but only if its found to provide the enormous amount of gas predicted. Watch for movement in the offshore reserve and see if ATP can contract itself to handle the new gas production. That should go a long way in predicting its success.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
This article was sent to 1,659 people who get email alerts on ATPG.
by Stock Croc »
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
BeantwoordenVerwijderenATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ:ATPG - News) today released first quarter 2012 financial results and an operations update.
Results of Operations
Production in first quarter 2012 was 2.0 MMBoe (million barrels of oil equivalent) of which 63% was oil and condensate, compared to 2.3 MMBoe in the first quarter 2011 of which 68% was oil and condensate. This falls within ATP’s previously-stated expectation of 1.8 – 2.1 MMBoe for first quarter 2012. First quarter 2012 production includes approximately 0.1 MMBoe from a royalty relief adjustment related to 2011 production. Revenues from oil and gas production were $146.6 million in first quarter 2012 including a $3.0 million benefit for royalty relief related to 2011, compared to $166.5 million with no corresponding adjustment for royalty relief in first quarter 2011.
Cash provided by operating activities in first quarter 2012 was $100.9 million, compared to $86.2 million in first quarter 2011. ATP ended first quarter 2012 with a cash balance of $224.7 million, compared to $65.7 million in fourth quarter 2011. ATP’s working capital deficit was $267.9 million at the end of first quarter 2012 compared to a $347.5 million deficit at the end of fourth quarter 2011.
Zoals gewoonlijk viel het kwartaalbericht van ATPG tegen, het is ongelooflijk om te zien dat een olie/gasbedrijf met een dagproductie van ca 22.000 BOE nog steeds zwaar verlies draait.
VerwijderenDe wildcat bij Israël zou ATPG misschien moeten/kunnen gaan redden, maar ik zou niet weten hoe, men zou immers nog veel meer geld nodig hebben als men daar succes heeft. De theoretische kans op succes is 20%.
Als ATPG inderdaad een grote gasvondst doet, dan zal de koers ongetwijfeld flink stijgen, de echte gokkers kunnen nu mooi instappen op ca 6,50, maar persoonlijk heb ik slechte ervaringen met wildcats.
Wellicht dat ATPG bij succes een gedeelte zou kunnen verkopen, maar ik heb geen idee hoeveel geld dat zou kunnen opleveren.
If ATP's Exploration Well Is A Success, How Will The Company Fund Development?
BeantwoordenVerwijderenMay 21, 2012 | 5 comments | about: ATPG, includes: NBL
ATP Oil and Gas (ATPG) has long had a very specific business strategy. That strategy has involved focusing on offshore oil and gas properties and being involved only in development operations. In other words ATP has always avoided exploration risk and focused on only development.
ATP has targeted developing properties that include already discovered reserves that are too small to be of interest to the larger oil and gas producers. The idea being that ATP can pick up discarded properties at pennies on the dollar which makes it possible to develop the properties economically.
This strategy has resulted in ATP becoming one of the smallest companies that operates offshore Deepwater wells. Because operating in the Deepwater is extremely expensive, it is generally the playground of the big boys.
In the wake of the BP oil spill there was a lot of focus on whether a small player should be allowed to operate in the Deepwater given the potential for huge liability in the event of an oil spill. ATP received a lot of attention for being a little guy operating in the Deep.
This attention that was directed at ATP being one of the few small companies with Deepwater expertise ironically opened up a new offshore opportunities for ATP. Other small global operators who hold exploration properties but don't possess offshore development expertise realized that ATP could be of some help. While these small companies generally aren't going to get the time of day from the mega oil companies who hold most of the world's Deepwater experience, ATP is another story.
Long story short, ATP is now a partner in an offshore property in Israel.
These new opportunities have meant a significant change in ATP's business model however. After promoting a development only mantra for years, these wells that ATP is partnering on are strictly exploration.
2)
BeantwoordenVerwijderenATP recently announced the commencement of drilling on its first exploration target:
ATP May 9, Press Release - "ATP commenced drilling its first well offshore Israel in late April 2012, an exploratory well in the Shimshon license. Preliminary results are expected in third quarter 2012. ATP operates the well with a 40% working interest through its ATP East Med B.V. subsidiary. ATP notes that Isramco Negev, its partner in Shimshon, on March 6, 2011 reported that it received an independent reservoir engineering evaluation from Lockwood & Associates estimating gross potential natural gas resources at Shimshon and that they calculated assessment of the total geological and geophysical exploration probability of success of 20 percent to be reasonable. Lockwood said its high estimate of reserves to the 100% interest was for 3.4 TCF, the low estimate was 1.5 TCF and its best estimate was 2.3 TCF."
The best estimate of the potential for the well is 2.3 TCF. If that is what the result turns out to be, ATP is going to double its booked reserves.
Clearly that would be good news for ATP shareholders. My only question is that, given that ATP is likely the most over-leveraged company in the industry, how is it going to pay for development of this property? ATP is already struggling to pay for development of its Clipper project in the Gulf of Mexico and its Cheviot project in the North Sea. How is it going to find cash for a third big development? ATP needs immediate cash inflows, not more cash outflows.
Offshore Israel is the home to more than one exciting high impact exploration well in the coming weeks. Tiny IPC Oil and Gas Holdings is also getting ready to drill its exploration well targeting another massive target on its Myra license. Unlike ATP, IPC Oil and Gas Holdings is pure exploration, so if successful this well will be a company maker.
The incredible success that Noble Energy (NBL) has had with exploration offshore Israel must have management and shareholders of companies like ATP and IPC dreaming of exploration windfalls. It won't be long now until drilling results are in and we know if the wells are windfalls or a dry holes.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
by Devon Shire »
ATP strikes gas in Israel, shares jump
BeantwoordenVerwijderenMon Jul 2, 2012 9:24am EDT
(Reuters) - ATP Oil & Gas Corp (ATPG.O) said it discovered natural gas at one of its wells off the coast of Israel, sending its shares up 14 percent.
The Shimshon well encountered more than 62 feet of natural gas pay in the Bet Guvrin sands, the company said.
The discovery comes a month after the company said CEO Matt McCarroll resigned in less than a week into his job due to disagreement on employment contract.
ATP, with a 40 percent working interest in the well, started drilling in late April 2012. According to an independent reservoir engineering evaluation, Lockwood and Associates, estimates suggest that Shimshon has about 2.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves.
The company, however, said it would provide additional information about the discovery during the third quarter of 2012.
Shares of ATP Oil & Gas rose 44 cents to $3.80 in pre-market trading on Nasdaq. They closed at $3.36 on Friday. Houston-based ATP has lost 80 percent of its market value over the past one year.
ATP Oil And Gas: Sell The Stock, Buy The 24% Bonds
BeantwoordenVerwijderenJune 22, 2012 | 17 comments | about: ATPG
ATP Oil and Gas (ATPG) has been in a tough position due to liquidity concerns and issues of management not being able to hit certain targets.
ATPG is in a tight spot because its interest expense is so high that its nearly impossible for ATP to turn a profit. The only way the company can turn a profit is by increasing production. However, since the company is running low on funds it's hard to believe ATPG will be able to remain solvent long enough to increase production.
The stock does not seem appropriate here as there is way too much uncertainty for the future of the company; nobody knows what is going on. ATPG even hired a CEO at the beginning of this month, and then he resigned a week later.
While the equity seems like a poor play, the bonds may be a much better buy. As ATPG's losses mount, the company could go bankrupt in the next two years.
Analysts such as Ravi Kamath have been saying that ATPG could file for bankruptcy as soon as November.
Their operating performance has been poor. There's somewhat of a chance that they have to file in November, when a $90 million coupon payment comes due. They've been able to do these liquidity enhancing transactions, which has kept them out of bankruptcy.
- Ravi Kamath, analyst at Global Hunter Securities
Kamath could be right, and he isn't the only one that believes ATPG could default soon. Moody's Investor Services said last September that current operating cash flow may not be enough to cover the company's bond payments.
In a bankruptcy scenario such as this, equity holders would be wiped out completely. Even bondholders may take a hit in a situation like this, but it's important to note that the bonds are trading at an extremely large discount to par value.
ATPG issued $1.5 billion worth of bonds at a par value of a $100. The bonds are set to mature on 05/01/2015. The CUSIP for the bond is 00208JAE8.The reason I recommend the bonds over the equity is because the returns could be great even if ATPG files for bankruptcy.
The bonds are trading at 50 cents on the dollar. The interest rate based on the $50 price is around 24%. So if ATPG still manages to barely scrape by, bond investors will be able to lock in a phenomenal yield. If ATPG is able to pay back the loan by 2015, investors will see a 100% appreciation in the bond.
The biggest reason for recommending the bonds is because they have limited risk even in the case of bankruptcy. Typically, if ATPG restructures, the company would wipe out the equity holders. Even the bondholders may not get everything, but I believe they will get much more than 50 cents on the dollar for the bonds. It's even possible that bondholders could agree to convert to the new equity if ATP defaults. This would cut out interest payments and save the company a $177 million a year.
Bottom line is that there is a possibility of ATPG going bankrupt. The equity should be for those with a high risk appetite. With the bond, investors can get a 24% yield, while expecting a limited downside in event of a restructuring.
Disclosure: I have a small position in CUSIP 00208JAE8.
More articles by Kraken »
commentaar:
VerwijderenAls iemand nog aandelen ATPG heeft (of ze wil kopen), dan kan het wellicht verstandig zijn om eens naar de obligaties te kijken: het direct rendement is ca 24% per jaar + een extra rendement bij aflossing in 2015 van meer dan 100%.
De huidige koers is ca 47 tot 48%.
In het ergste geval (chapter 11) zullen de oblies tzt gedwongen omgewisseld worden in gewone aandelen.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/677381-atp-oil-and-gas-sell-the-stock-buy-the-24-bonds
3 Things to Watch With ATP Oil & Gas
BeantwoordenVerwijderenBy Sean Williams | More Articles
July 11, 2012 | Comments (1)
ATP Oil & Gas (Nasdaq: ATPG ) is an oil and natural gas deepwater development and production company with properties in the Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of the United Kingdom in the North Sea. It also has deepwater drilling interests in the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Israel.
Today, let's look at three things investors should be watching regarding ATP Oil & Gas, as they'll provide us with better insight into the company.
1. Shimshon well
The white knight for ATP Oil & Gas shareholders could turn out to be the company's deepwater interests off the coast of Israel in the Levant Basin. Preliminary estimates signal that the Shimshon well possesses between 2.5 trillion cubic feet to 3.4 TCF of natural gas. That's a potential game-changer for ATP, which has struggled to grow its production.
Two particular aspects of this find make it particularly notable (beyond the fact that we're talking about 3 TCF of natural gas). First, European and Asian demand for natural gas is high, and so are prices for the cleaner-energy resource. U.S. prices for natural gas may be near decade lows, but that's not the case across the water. Higher prices should mean considerably better cash flow for ATP.
Secondly, Noble Energy's (NYSE: NBL ) success in the region bodes well for ATP's prospects. Noble Energy had previously been the only other foreign company with the rights to drill off of Israel, so this could be a detriment to them. However, with claims to approximately 20 TCF of natural gas according to estimates, I don't think Noble shareholders will be crying the blues.
2. Gulf of Mexico drilling demand and Clipper development
Even with properties in the North Sea and hope abounding off the coast of Israel, it should be noted that a vast majority of ATP's revenue still is tied to production in the Gulf of Mexico. It's therefore imperative that drilling demand remains strong and that it continues to find ways to boost production in the region.
The big news for investors here is that ATP expects its two wells in the Clipper Field region of the Gulf to be operational by either later in the third quarter or early in the fourth quarter. The two wells are expected to add an additional 22,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day according to Foolish energy sector savant Isac Simon. That represents an 89% increase over ATP's production levels in 2011 and will tie its two wells directly into Murphy Oil's (NYSE: MUR ) Front Runner production facility.
Prior to Clipper, ATP has faced a world of problems. The Deepwater Horizon disaster and subsequent spill in 2010 placed a temporary moratorium on drilling from which ATP still hasn't fully recovered. On the other hand, deepwater driller Ensco (NYSE: ESV ) is back to operating at near full capacity in the Gulf, and Cobalt International Energy (NYSE: CIE ) is planning to drill three additional wells in the Gulf on top of the one it's working on now. Things are progressing quickly for ATP's peers, but not for ATP itself.
2)
BeantwoordenVerwijderen3. The debt dilemma
Perhaps nothing needs more watching than ATP's rising debt levels, which threaten to hurl this company into bankruptcy court by 2015 (or sooner) if it can't figure out a way to boost production and cash flow quickly.
ATP boasts a balance sheet with over $2 billion in debt, of which $1.5 billion comes due in May 2015. At its current rate of production, there is precisely zero chance of paying that debt off without a massive secondary offering, which would dilute shareholder value to smithereens. Based on ATP's first-quarter interest payment of $76.5 million, the company will be divvying out more than $300 million in just interest expenses each year; not a very pretty picture if you ask me.
Even worse, ATP has failed to consistently produce positive cash flow over the past couple of years. It's therefore imperative for ATP to quickly and successfully build out its properties so that it can begin generating enough cash flow to cover its rapidly approaching debt window.
Foolish roundup
Now that you know what to watch for, it should be easier to analyze ATP Oil & Gas' successes and pitfalls in the future, and hopefully you'll gain a competitive investing edge.
If you're still craving even more info on ATP Oil & Gas, I would recommend adding the stock to your free and personalized watchlist so you can keep up on all of the latest news with the company.
With global growth slowing and volatility peaking, it pays now more than ever to focus on necessity products like energy. Our team of analysts at Motley Fool Stock Advisor has scoured the sea of energy companies and come up with its top pick that it's dubbed the "Only Energy Stock You'll Ever Need to Own." Find out its identity by getting your copy of this latest free special report.
ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG), engaged in oil and natural gas exploration and production in the Gulf of Mexico, the United Kingdom and the Dutch sectors of the North Sea, in which global hedge fund company D.E. Shaw, that uses systematic and computer-driven methods to manage its $26 billion in assets under management, filed SEC Form SC 13G indicating that it holds 2.66 million or 5.1% of outstanding shares, an increase from the 1.75 million shares that it held at the end of Q1.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenMotleyFool:
BeantwoordenVerwijderenWill ATP Oil & Gas stay afloat for the rest of the year?
Few people have much doubt that ATP has potentially lucrative properties in its portfolio. With an estimated 1.5 trillion-3.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the Levant Basin off Israel's coast, the company has definitely diversified beyond its early focus on the Gulf of Mexico. Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL ) has had great success off the coast of Israel, with the company being part of a consortium that has finalized a 15-year deal to sell gas worth $16 billion-$23 billion to utility Israel Electric. Given the slow pace at which ATP has produced in the Gulf, the company really needs success elsewhere in order to start moving forward more rapidly.
But the biggest threat to ATP's share price is its huge overhang of debt. As Fool contributor Sean Williams noted in his recent article on ATP, the company has most of its debt maturing in mid-2015. That gives the company three years to develop enough resources to convince bond investors to refinance maturing debt; for shareholders to emerge unscathed, the refinancing has to involve a minimum of dilutive equity offerings. That's a tough proposition, especially as oil prices have started to moderate. If ATP either issues new shares or has to sell a lucrative property before it reaches its production potential, then investors will miss out on a big portion of their returns.
Perhaps the worst thing for ATP is the pace at which energy development is happening beyond the company. On land, Kodiak Oil & Gas (NYSE: KOG ) has managed to boost both production and developed reserves. Meanwhile, Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG ) expects to start exporting liquefied natural gas within the next few years, which could start an energy renaissance around the world, given the arbitrage opportunities that natural-gas transport affords right now.
ATP has plenty of good prospects. The problem, though, is that shareholders aren't likely to be the ones to benefit. Bad luck and poor capital planning make bondholders the more likely winners going forward.
ATP Bondholders Said To Seek Adviser As Debt Falls To Record Low
BeantwoordenVerwijderenBy Zeke Faux and Joshua Fineman - Jul 26, 2012 11:07 PM GMT+0200
ATP Oil & Gas Corp. bondholders are organizing a group to represent their interests in a potential restructuring, according to two people familiar with the matter.
The investors interviewed potential advisers this week, said one of the people, who declined to be identified because he’s involved in the process, which isn’t public. ATP Chief Financial Officer Albert Reese and Isabel Plume, a spokeswoman for the Houston-based company, didn’t immediately return calls for comment.
“ATP has grappled with numerous timing issues, and yet we have not missed an interest payment on our debt,” Paul Bulmahn, the company’s founder and executive chairman, said last month on a conference call.
ATP’s $1.5 billion of 11.875 percent notes due May 2015 fell 0.5 cent to 38.25 cents on the dollar, the lowest ever, as of 4:33 p.m. in New York, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The bonds traded as high as 77.5 cents on April 26.
ATP has been battered by production delays, missed output targets and a cash crunch that jeopardized its ability to cover debt payments. Last month, the company announced the hiring of former Dynamic Offshore Resources LLC Chief Executive Officer Matt McCarroll as CEO, then said six days later that he resigned after failing to reach a “mutually agreeable” employment agreement.
‘Fingers Crossed’
“We expect either bankruptcy or an announcement of some sort from somebody on a potential reorganization,” Bob Bruce, manager of the $350 million Bruce Fund Inc., which held about $9 million of the 11.875 percent notes as of March, said in a telephone interview. “We just keep our fingers crossed that a miracle will happen.”
Bruce said he hadn’t heard from any bondholder group or advisers.
ATP’s stock has dropped 74 percent this year to $1.95 in Nasdaq trading.
The company may run out of cash in the third quarter, Kenneth Duffel, an analyst at Montpelier, Vermont-based KDP Investment Advisors, wrote in a May report. ATP hired investment bank Jefferies Group Inc. to help manage its cash flow, the financial newsletter Debtwire reported. Richard Khaleel, a Jefferies spokesman, declined to comment.
De koers van ATPG staat nu rond de 1,40.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenDe aandeelhouders geven het dus op en hebben geen enkel vertrouwen meer in een goede afloop.
Ik neem aan dat de grootaandeelhouders een drastische ingreep gaan doen om te redden wat er te redden valt, meest waarschijnlijk zijn een verkoop van het hele bedrijf of een chapter 11 reorganisatie.
Why ATP Oil May Not Go Bankrupt
BeantwoordenVerwijderenJuly 30, 2012 | 10 comments | about: ATPG, includes: DO, NE, RIG, SDRL
ATP Oil and Gas (ATPG) stock was down 40% in past two days after a Bloomberg article in which two bond holders mentioned they had interviewed potential advisors, ostensibly for a possible bankruptcy or restructuring. However, management has a track record of unconventional asset monetization in difficult environments; the company has valuable assets available for sale; and the major tranche of ATP's debt is covenant-lite. These factors point to the possibility of ATP avoiding bankruptcy. Also, ATP has not in fact missed an interest payment or necessarily triggered a bankruptcy filing, and its next interest payment isn't due until November.
ATP has been in tight liquidity situations before. Particularly, in late 2008/early 2009, ATP traded like it was going bankrupt, and needed to sell assets to survive. Management was able to sell assets in time, contrary to expectations that the company would go bankrupt. They successfully kept the company out of bankruptcy despite oil prices going as low as $35 and despite a world economic crisis that substantially reduced available funding for oil asset deals. The world economic environment may not be fantastic at the moment, but WTI is currently around $90 and there is substantial funding available for oil related investments.
ATP does have substantial assets available for sale, joint venture, or other similar type transaction to raise liquidity. In addition to billions of dollars of proved developed and undeveloped reserves, ATP has over a billion dollars of oil infrastructure assets that it could sell or joint venture. The infrastructure assets seem to be the more likely sale candidates. Focusing on the infrastructure assets, ATP has about $600 million of value in the Titan (using just over half the book value number), $150 million in the Innovator (using GE's deal last year as a mark) and $250 million of value in the Octabuoy (about 50% of what they've spent on it so far). Selling a portion of these assets, or all of them in a package deal to an infrastructure fund or distressed investment firm, would generate significant liquidity and push off any question of bankruptcy
Key to this argument, it appears that ATP's debt covenants allow the company to sell infrastructure assets. That being the case, since the current liquidity and oil price environment is dramatically different from ATP's previous near-death experience, it seems likely that they will proceed with an asset divestiture (or NPI or JV or something along those lines) rather than going with a Chapter 11 filing.
2)
BeantwoordenVerwijderenAdditional considerations
Managements' large personal ownership of stock incentivizes them to keep the company out of bankruptcy. Also, the MLP market is thriving, particularly the "midstream" MLPs which could absorb some of ATP's equipment, and the offshore drilling equipment companies have also done well recently, such as Diamond Offshore (DO), Noble Corp (NE), SeaDrill (SDRL) and to a lesser extent Transocean (RIG).
Also, in bankruptcy processes, often former equity holders will get up to 5% of the value of the new company - considering the almost $2 billion in debt against the company, 5% of that would be $100 million, higher than the current $70 million market cap. So perhaps even in a bankruptcy scenario, equity holders might not do terribly from the current stock price level. And the company issued at $35 million unsecured convertible note at the end of June, which may not have sold if the company looked likely to go bankrupt soon.
And, in speaking to other investors about ATP, it appears there have been some misconceptions about how proved reserves are calculated - the value of the infrastructure is not factored into proved reserve value, there is no double counting of ATP's reserves, so ATP could in fact divest its infrastructure assets and still have its full proved reserves. ATP would of course need to contract the assets to be able to use them to develop its undeveloped reserves, but those contracts would likely need to be in place to sell the assets. Perhaps this is driving some selling activity, as if ATP could not divest infrastructure without impairing reserves, it would be in an even more challenging situation.
Word of Caution
Please note, I'm not saying ATP won't go bankrupt. It could go into Chapter 11 tomorrow. I'm just saying it might not, and sharing some of the reasons why. This is important because the stock seems to be pricing in a high probability of bankruptcy. If the company doesn't go bankrupt, it seems likely that the stock price could rebound significantly. It is an interesting risk/reward trade, considering the stock was trading 6 times higher than its current price two months ago.
One last consideration - if ATP doesn't go bankrupt, it is expected to bring on production later this year from Clipper, which should substantially improve its cash flow situation and perhaps could help it be re-valued in line with its proved reserves and infrastructure, instead of being valued as a distressed investment. So the potential upside from ATP not going bankrupt is meaningful, and it seems possible and maybe even likely that ATP will sell assets and not go bankrupt.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
More articles by Josh Young »
http://seekingalpha.com/article/760921-why-atp-oil-may-not-go-bankrupt?source=yahoo
Economic Output
BeantwoordenVerwijderenNoble, partner Delek, and other explorers have discovered about 760 billion cubic meters (28 trillion cubic feet) of gas, according to Noble data. That’s enough to meet the country’s demand for more than 150 years at current consumption rates, according to Bloomberg calculations based on BP Plc data. The gas would be worth about $240 billion, equal to Israel’s annual economic output, based on today’s prices in the U.K.
The Israeli government has set up a research committee chaired by Shaul Zemach, director-general at the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, to develop a blueprint for gas industry development due to be published this month. Today, Israel imports gas by LNG tanker.
“One of our targets” is to encourage “companies to come to Israel to invest money” in exploration and “do exporting in a good way,” said Yeoshua Stern, director-general of the natural gas authority at Israel’s Energy Ministry and one of the team behind the report. “I hope there is enough gas for the domestic market and for export.”
Securing Resources
In April, the committee presented an interim report marrying the aims of encourage exploration in Israel, securing resources for domestic use through 2040 and allowing some exports. The energy industry said it creates uncertainty because gas exports will only be allowed at the government’s discretion.
“Foreign investors won’t come here because of the regulatory uncertainty,” said Yossi Abu, the CEO of Delek Drilling LP, speaking in July at a Tel Aviv investors’ conference. “It’s not the government versus the developers, but the government and the developers versus our competitors in the rest of the world.”
While Noble and Delek have held preliminary talks with South Korea’s Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. and Russia’s OAO Gazprom (GAZP) about building a floating LNG unit, there is concern that such a facility could be vulnerable to an attack.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-02/israel-finds-240-billion-gas-hoard-stranded-by-politics-energy.html?cmpid=yhoo
Vandaag werd de laatste obligaties tegen een koers van slechts 37% verhandeld. De koers van de aandelen zette vanmorgen met $1.10 ook een nieuw dieptepunt neer.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenDit geeft duidelijk aan dat alle toegang tot de kapitaalmarkten is afgesneden. Nu ze er niet meer in slagen de kapitaalinvesteringen te financieren, lijkt een bankroet dichtbij.
August 10, 2012, 2:36 PM
BeantwoordenVerwijderenATP Oil Preparing Possible Bankruptcy Filing in Coming Days
By Mike Spector and Ryan Dezember
ATP Oil & Gas Corp. is negotiating a $600 million loan that would help keep the company running during bankruptcy proceedings, said a person familiar with the matter.
ATP could file for bankruptcy protection in coming days, the person said. ATP was in discussions with senior creditors Friday afternoon about the parameters of the financing and possible bankruptcy filing, the people said.
Bloomberg and S&P Leveraged Commentary & Data earlier reported on the financing discussions and potential bankruptcy filing.
Shares of Houston-based ATP shares fell 67% Friday afternoon to 43 cents. The stock has lost nearly 95% since May. At their peak, in 2007, the stock traded above $57. Meanwhile, the Houston company’s 11.875% bonds due 2015 have fallen 57% in the last year, including 2% Friday, to 36 cents on the dollar.
ATP has suffered operational setbacks this summer at a Gulf of Mexico platform and deep-water well in the Mediterranean Sea, exacerbating what analysts predicted late last year was a looming cash crunch.
ATP produces oil and gas in the Gulf of Mexico, the Mediterranean Sea and the North Sea. It often invests in properties that have been proven to hold oil and gas but have been cast off by larger explorers eyeing larger projects. That strategy is intended to take some of the chance out of offshore exploration, but the business of tapping the ocean floor for oil and gas is fraught with risk. In deep water, where ATP often operates, a single well can cost hundreds of millions of dollars.
In early June ATP hired a new CEO — former Dynamic Offshore Resources chief Matt McCarroll – only to see him leave, and rescind a purchase of 1 million shares, six days later.
Uiteindelijk is het dan toch gebeurd:
BeantwoordenVerwijderen"As ATP Oil Files For Bankruptcy, CEO Blames Obama For Company's Collapse"
http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2012/08/18/as-atp-oil-files-for-bankruptcy-ceo-blames-obama-for-companys-collapse/?partner=yahootix
ik zou zeggen het was niet Obamas schuld, maar de schulden die het bedrijf de das omdeden.
ATP Sees $1.3 Billion In Operations Receipts By 2014
BeantwoordenVerwijderenBy Linda Sandler - Aug 20, 2012 10:13 PM GMT+0200
ATP Oil & Gas Corp. (ATPG), the Gulf of Mexico oil producer that filed for bankruptcy last week, projected gross receipts from operations of $1.3 billion by February 2014.
Net revenue for the 18-month period is estimated to reach $613 million, ATP said today in a regulatory filing. The company sought Chapter 11 protection in Houston on Aug. 17, blaming the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster that led to a Gulf of Mexico drilling moratorium. ATP said it has a commitment for $617.6 million in financing from existing lenders to support operations while it restructures.
ATP bonds rose the most in more than two weeks and were the most actively traded high-yield corporate securities by dealers today, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.
ATP’s $1.5 billion of 11.875 percent notes due May 2015 rose 2.3 cents to 31.7 cents on the dollar to yield 70 percent as of 3:14 p.m. in New York, according to Trace. That’s the biggest increase since Aug. 3.
ATP shares were at 30 cents at 4 p.m. in New York in Nasdaq Stock Market trading, after reaching a 52-week low today of 20 cents. The year’s high in August 2011 was $14.48. The company listed $3.6 billion in assets and $3.5 billion in debt, in papers filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court.
Loan Payments
ATP received $372 million of its bankruptcy loan this month, and expects to pay $167.5 million to lenders over 18 months, according to today’s filing. Net operating cash flow by February 2014 is projected at $210 million and capital spending at a total of $224 million.
ATP said in the filing that it doesn’t usually publish projections and they shouldn’t be relied on, because actual results depended on factors outside its control, including possible operational and regulatory setbacks. The company plans to start publishing monthly operating reports in bankruptcy court in Houston in September, according to the filing.
During the past three years, ATP lost the equivalent of $1.1 million a day as equipment failures and unforeseen geological hurdles in the Gulf of Mexico frustrated efforts to lift crude output. The specter of lower production spooked investors because it meant a reduction in cash flow needed to make debt payments.
ATP, based in Houston, said in a statement Aug. 17 that the “primary reason” for the bankruptcy began with the explosion at BP Plc (BP/)’s Deepwater Horizon and the government moratorium that halted drilling while safety rules were reviewed.
The bankruptcy case is In re ATP Oil & Gas Corp., 12-36187, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Southern District of Texas (Houston).
Volgende week naar de pinksheets...
BeantwoordenVerwijderenOn August 20, 2012, ATP Oil & Gas Corporation received a letter from The NASDAQ Stock Market notifying the Company that in accordance with Listing Rules 5101, 5110(b), and IM-5101-1, the staff of NASDAQ has determined that the Company's common stock will be delisted from NASDAQ.
The NASDAQ staff reached its decision under NASDAQ Listing Rules 5101, 5110(b), and IM-5101-1 based upon the Company's bankruptcy filing and the associated public interest concerns raised by it, concerns regarding the residual equity interest of the existing listed securities holders and concerns about the Company's ability to sustain compliance with all requirements for continued listing on NASDAQ. The delinquent filing of the Company's Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2012 serves as an additional basis.
Given the continued listing requirements, the early status of the bankruptcy case and the demands the bankruptcy case has posed on the Company's resources, the Company does not plan to appeal the NASDAQ staff's determination to delist the Company's common stock. Accordingly, trading of the Company's common stock will be suspended at the opening of business on August 29, 2012, and a Form 25-NSE will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which will remove the Company's common stock from listing and registration on NASDAQ.
After the Company's common stock is delisted by NASDAQ, it may trade on the OTC Markets Group Inc. (the "Pink Sheets") or the OTC Bulletin Board ("OTCBB").
Ik ben de heer Pato fischer op naam. Ik woon in Polen, Ik wil dit medium gebruiken om alle leningen zoekers informeren heel voorzichtig zijn, want er zijn oplichting over de hele wereld een paar maanden geleden was ik financieel gespannen, en vanwege mijn wanhoop ik was opgelicht door een aantal online kredietverstrekkers. Bijna verloren hoop, totdat een vriend van mij stuurde me naar een zeer betrouwbare kredietverstrekker genoemd heer Razaq Aziz, die geef me een lening van 30.000 PLN Als u behoefte heeft aan enige vorm van lening juist nu contact met hem, zodat hij ook kan geven u de lening bedrag dat u moet (razaqazeezloanfirm@outlook.com) Ik beloof dat hij zal nooit in de steek je.
BeantwoordenVerwijderen