Platina+Palladium+PGM

Surprised it lasted this long. Soviet-era palladium stockpiles said to be depleted

Frik Els | April 26, 2012

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The size and composition of Soviet Russia’s platinum group metal stockpiles have been a contentious issue in the PGM market ever since the collapse of the USSR in 1989.

When in need of cash the Russian government is wont to release reserves – particularly palladium of which it is the world’s number one producer – on the open market.

They did this at the end of 2002 sending palladium prices plummeting. It can also work the other way as with the standoff between Russia and Georgia over South-Ossetia in 2008.

From under $400/ounce at the start of that year, the price of the precious metal shot to a high of $600 at the end of February 2008, only to collapse again as tensions receded.

Apart from the secrecy surrounding the stockpiles, the volatile price movements are exacerbated because palladium production is so heavily concentrated in just two countries – South Africa and Russia.

The pair of nations produced just under 200,000 kilograms palladium in 2010. The third largest producer, the US, could only haul 11,600 kilograms out of the ground in 2010.

On Thursday palladium, used in autocatalysts and dentistry, was changing hands for $672 an ounce down from highs above $800 last year. But those multi-year highs could now be in sight again reports Commodity Online:

The amount of palladium released onto the market by the Russian government decreased to 750 thousand ounces in 2011 from 1000 thousand ounces in 2010, feeding rumours that the Russian stockpile is now close to depletion. Government officials have indicated that this is the case.

Investment bank Barclays estimates 300,000 ounces could still find its way to traders this year while Russian news agency Interfax quoted number one producer Norilsk as saying Russian government reserves have already dried up.

Whatever the correct number, a deficit of palladium – a 9 million ounces per year industry– is likely in 2012.

Apart from Russian reserves no longer distorting the market, South Africa’s dwindling supply – 200,000 ounces of PGMs may not reach the market from the African nation – is bound to boost prices further.

Frik Els

Wie durft tegen de markt in te gaan..??

Durf contrair te handelen

Door Selwyn Duijvestijn op 24 apr 2012 om 08:45 | Views: 5.807 | Categorie:Aandelen , Economie | Onderwerpen: sentiment

Beleggers op de Europese aandelenbeurzen zagen het gisteren totaal niet meer zitten. De politieke onzekerheid in Frankrijk en Nederland, een nieuwe recessie in Spanje en zwakke cijfers over de industrie in de eurozone. Daarmee vertel ik u echter niets nieuws. Dat weet u allemaal al. De gemiddelde belegger weet dit ook al een tijdje.

Waarom dan toch die schrikreactie? Het beursgezegde het weten van de zaak, is het einde van het vermaak werkt ook andersom. De Spaanse ellende zit naar mijn mening allang in de koersen verwerkt. Qua macro-economische cijfers is er amper verschil met het begin van het jaar, toen de AEX nog flink hoger noteerde.

Vallende messen

Contrair handelen heeft mij in mijn beleggingscarrière de meest succesvolle transacties opgeleverd. Het kost misschien veel moeite om op de koopknop te klikken wanneer een aandeel meer dan 10% moet inleveren die dag, maar vaak betaalt die dapperheid zich meer dan terug. Wanneer iedereen positief gestemd is, kijk ik liever naar shortposities.

Het nieuws kan dan immers alleen nog maar tegenvallen. Aan de andere kant is het ook zo dat wanneer beleggers over elkaar struikelen om de markt uit te vluchten en hun aandelen massaal dumpen, ik klaarsta om de vallende messen op te vangen. De mooiste bloemen groeien aan de rand van de afgrond.

Concreet

De AEX belandde gistermiddag even onder de 300 punten, maar oversteeg die psychologische grens daarna alweer snel. Dat was voor mij een teken dat het zo slecht nog niet gaat met de graadmeter van de Amsterdamse beurs. Ik ben dan ook met een zeer korte stoploss ingestapt voor een kortstondig herstel naar de 308 punten.

Vandaag kijk ik verder naar de meest afgestrafte aandelen en maak een inschatting of de risico/rendements-verhouding in mijn voordeel ligt. KPN ,ING en SNS Reaal hebben daarbij mijn voorkeur. Durft u contrair te handelen of behoort u tot de massa?

Selwyn Duijvestijn is een selfmade beursdeskundige en expert op het gebied van handel in turbo's. Op zijn website turbo-trading geeft hij zijn mening over door hem opgemerkte kansen in verschillende markten.

Grondstoffen algemeen

Zinc to be the next ‘big base metal play' - Scotiabank's Mohr

Scotiabank says a strong rebound in U.S. auto assemblies is likely to support base metal premiums in the country

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted:  Thursday , 29 Mar 2012 

RENO (MINEWEB) - 

Scotiabank economist, Patricia Mohr, predicted that zinc will become the "big base metal play," as a strong rebound in U.S. auto assemblies supports base metal premiums in the U.S.

In the March 27^th edition of the Scotiabank Commodity Price Index, Mohr observed, "A strong rally in base metal prices and firmer gold led the Metal & Minerals Index higher in February."

"LME copper prices spiked to US$3.93 per pound last month-leading other base metals higher-as some of the late-2011 gloom on the global economic outlook lifted," she said. "Sentiment has improved alongside firmer U.S. economic indicators on employment, consumer confidence and auto assemblies and economic monetary policy."

Although Mohr noted copper prices retreated, "we remain optimistic that China will achieve a ‘soft landing' with GDP growth of 8.6% in 2012 and 8.9% in 2013."

In her analysis, Mohr observed that spot potash prices eased from US$500 per tonne in January to US$495 in February, "but remained well above US$393 a year ago."

Meanwhile, the Indian government, under budgetary constraints, has cut the potash subsidiary from $327 per tonne for 2011-12 to $294 for 2012-13. "These developments have triggered temporary production cuts by Potash Corp and Mosaic in Western Canada to bring supply into line with lower demand," said Mohr.

However, Mohr observed that Canpotex and the Belarusian Potash Company have just agreed on new contracts with Chinese buyers for the second quarter of 2012 at US$470 per tonne cfr, unchanged from a year ago.

"The recent rebound in soybean, canola and palm oil prices in Malaysia/Indonesia and ongoing strength in corn prices-all requiring large amounts of potash per hectare planted-has improved farm economics and bodes well for solid fertilizer application in North America, Southeast Asia and Brazil, as 2012 unfolds," she said.

In her analysis, Mohr observed that LME zinc prices rose from 90-cents per pound to 03-cents in February, before dropping to a still lucrative 90-cents in late March.

"Zinc may represent the next big base metal play," Mohr advised. "Zinc will shift into ‘deficit' (at latest by 2014) due to ongoing demand growth in the face of significant global mine depletion in mid-decade."

"In 2013, the closure of the Brunswick mine in Canada, Century in Australia and Vedanta's Lisheen mine in Ireland will shift sentiment towards zinc, with prices rallying in anticipation of tightening supplies," she forecast. "In the second half of this decade, zinc demand will be boosted by a recovery in G7 construction activity, particularly in the USA, China could start to use more galvanized steel in the underbody of a car."

"A merged Glencore/Xstrata would be the largest zinc mining company in the world, with a huge 25% share of world mine output (outside China)," Mohr added,

In the meantime, base metals premiums over LME cash in the U.S. Midwest are also firm, Mohr observed, with the ‘Platts U.S. aluminum premium' hitting a 10-month high of $8.75 cents per pound in mid-March. "Aside from lengthy delays in getting metal out of the LME warehouse in Detroit and lucrative warehousing deals, this strength likely reflects a significant recovery in U.S. auto assemblies, scheduled to reach 10.5 million units in 2012:Q2-a level not seen since mid-2007. Consumers and business are replacing an aging fleet, with the average age of vehicles on U.S. roads now at a record of nearly 11 years, up from a normal 9."

Mohr noted that spot uranium prices remain at a low ebb of US$51 per pound and base term-contract prices are US$60. "On a more positive note, China has completed drafting its new nuclear safety guidelines, spurred by the Fukushima-Daiichi event in Japan," she said. "This should allow a resumption of the approval process and actual construction of new projects this year. China has 15 nuclear reactors in operation and is in the process of building at least 25, with 50 more planned."

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page36?oid=148391&sn=Detail