Could easily hit $9,000 a ton in the next year
Forget gold for a moment and let’s focus on copper instead. It’ll be well worth the time…
Earlier this year, copper prices fell 25% from its 2009 rally on fears of a double-dip recession. Those fears have eased enough at least to let the commodity bound back up to $7,700 a ton on the London Metals Exchange (LME).That puts it only 3% from a two-year high and not far from its all-time peak.Sometimes called “Doctor Copper,” you could say it has a PhD in economics as it oftentimes signals strong growth trends. When countries start buying it up, they usually do so to advance national power grids, plumbing for new buildings and mass production of electronic goods.Just look at the sectors that bought the most copper last year. Construction firms used 48%, manufacturers of electrical and electronic appliances used 20%, transportation 10% and the power sector 5%.In other words, economies that can’t get enough of copper are growing. And considering who’s buying it up these days, copper prices should keep going up as well.
China stockpiles copper… Is a shortage coming?
Last year, China used the most copper, with 28% of demand. Europe came next with 25%, the U.S. with 14%, Japan with 5% and the rest of the world used 28%.And recent data coming out of China shows demand picking up.Copper imports jumped 10.7% last month. And the country even imported 5.3% more copper scrap, reclaimed from buildings and such.Many bears say China is only stockpiling copper. But if so, it has good reason to do so.The Chinese see copper inventories at the LME declining steadily since February. Normally, they rise during the summer months, but instead, they’ve declined 25%.They believe a major copper shortage is coming, which is why they’re stocking up on it. Investors should take careful note.
Real story on copper
For the real story on copper, you have to turn to the supply side of the equation.Superstar copper mines of the 1980s, like Chile’s Escondida, likely already saw their best days. And overall, few industry insiders believe there is enough new production coming on-stream in the next few years to meet even a very modest increase in demand.Even if the global economy falters again, the balance between supply and demand doesn’t look bearish. Too many past years of disappointing production have seen to that.In the first half of 2010, the world’s four top listed global copper miners – Freeport McMoran (NYSE: FCX), BHP Billiton ADR (NYSE: BHP), Xstrata ADR and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) – saw their collective output drop 12% from 2009.State-owned Chilean Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, said in May that it expected similar output in 2010 to the previous year; hardly a good sign. And overall, the copper mining industry has undershot production expectations by an annual average 6% in the past five years.Much of the problem stems from lower quality ore. After years of intensive output, many mines developed in the 1980s now produce ore with ever-lower copper content. This means they have to work harder just to keep output steady.Still, even lower-grade ore is in high demand. Morningstar predicts that “60% of today’s open pit mines will deplete or go underground [at much higher costs] by 2021.”Two decades of low prices gave most big mining companies little incentive to invest in finding new deposits. Plus, Wall Street bankers didn’t easily sign over loans to these businesses, choosing to invest in more glamorous opportunities instead.And copper mines take as long as 15 years to start producing from the initial investment. So there is very little that can be done to match consumption for the next five years or so.
Copper investments
Despite fears over the global economy, copper demand remains robust while supplies dwindle… an ideal investment situation.This new norm means higher copper prices in the years ahead. The metal could even easily hit $9,000 a ton in the next year or $10,000 a ton in the next few years.CEO Tom Albanese of Rio Tinto captured both the supply and demand sides when he said of the company’s 2010 first half results, “We could have sold more copper if we’d had it.”Yet his company and its main rivals mentioned earlier should all profit from the trend. So should two particular ETFs, Global X Copper Miners (NYSE: COPX) and First Trust ISE Global Copper Index Fund (NYSE: CU).Or there’s the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSE: JJC), which tracks the price of copper futures on the COMEX.But one way or the other, the copper market looks bullish for some time to come.
Disclosure: The author does not hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned
bron: Stockhouse 4 oktober 2010
Vooral bedrijven zoals Taseko, Augusta en Capstone kunnen hiervan profiteren, maar als dit scenario uitkomt zullen vrijwel alle grondstoffen mee omhoog gaan en zullen dus vrijwel alle mijnbouwaandelen hier van profiteren.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenEen zeer goedkoop koper/goud-aandeel is Exeter: beurswaarde nog geen half miljard bij:
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EXETER UPGRADES CASPICHE MINERAL RESOURCE TO: MEASURED AND INDICATED - 21.3 MILLION OUNCES GOLD + 5.3 BILLION POUNDS COPPER; INFERRED - 5.1 MILLION OUNCES GOLD + 1.4 BILLION POUNDS COPPER CNW Group(Mon, Sep 13)
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BeantwoordenVerwijderenBNP Paribas forecasts shortage of copper and tin
Thursday, 14 Oct 2010
Analysts from French bank BNP Paribas forecast that Global supply of copper in 2010 to 2012 will be below demand.
According to the bank’s assessment, this year the shortage will be 50,000 tonnes next year it’ll increase to 400,000 tonnes but in 2012 decrease to 150,000 tonnes. Production of refined copper this year is expected at the level of 18.75 million tonnes next year 19.45 million tonnes in 2012 20.75 million tonnes. Consumption is estimated correspondingly at 18.8 million tonnes, 19.85 million tonnes and 20.9 million tonnes.
In the world tin market shortage in the current year is expected at approximately 17,000 tonnes and in 2011, 20,000 tonnes. Production of refined tin in accordance with the bank forecast is 327,000 tonnes in 2010 and increase to 340,000 tonnes in 2011. The demand to grow from 344,000 tonnes to 360,000 tonnes correspondingly.
In the world aluminum market a balanced supply and demand situation may form by 2012 after 5 years of oversupply. Zinc excessive supply will be kept through 2010 and 2011.
(Sourced from FinMarket)
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Mini flashcrash bij Taseko zonder nieuws: koers gaat in een oogwenk van boven de 7 naar onder de 5 en staat nu weer op ca 6,20.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenHet enige grote risico voor TKO is slecht nieuws over de Prosperity mijn.
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Eye on Equities (RTGAM)
Darcy Keith
Copper has been on a tear since early summer, jumping 24 percent in the third quarter alone, and several analysts are betting its bullish days are far from over. Not only will the red metal benefit from greater demand as global economies recover, but the supply pipeline is looking limited. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) recently said it expects the global market for refined copper to swing into a 400,000-tonne deficit for 2011.
Analysts are upgrading both their forecasts for the copper price and some producers. Today, JenningsCapital Inc. analyst Peter Campbell raised his 2011 copper price forecast to $3.50 (U.S.) per pound from $2.98 while raising his outlook for Taseko Mines Ltd. .
“Our view of the copper market is that there is no significant new supply of copper ready to meet the demand of increased economic activity projected by the ICSG,” Mr. Campbell said in a research note. “In fact, many of the world’s largest copper producers face declining production due to lower grades and aging operations, exacerbating an already tight supply situation.”
Taseko currently produces copper and molybdenum from its Gibraltar Mine in British Columbia and plans to develop the Prosperity copper-gold projectin the same province. Mr. Campbell said the miner is now beginning to realize production increases from mill improvements it has been working on since 2006, and federal approval for the its Prosperity project should come any day.
Upside: Mr. Campbell hiked his 12-month target price by $2 to $9 a share and continues to recommend the stock as a buy.
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BeantwoordenVerwijderenWhy many junior copper stocks are a bargain
10/25/2010 7:11:17 AM | Richard (Rick) Mills
Market for mined copper will remain in deficit: Rio Tinto
As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information
Copper’s talking up a storm.
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. said copper ore mined from Chile, and shipped to Indonesia, will be in short supply for at least the next five years.
Antofagasta Plc, which owns three Chilean mines, said a scarcity will persist for “the foreseeable future.”
BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE: BHP, Stock Forum) said production from Escondida in Chile, the world’s biggest copper mine, will drop as much as 10 per cent in 2011because of lower ore grades.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX, Stock Forum) said it plans to defer some output at its Grasberg mine (the world’s second largest mine) in Indonesia. Citing safety reasons Freeport will forego the mining of about 130 million pounds of copper through 2014.
Global treatment fees have tumbled as smelting capacity has outpaced mine supply.
The Metal Economics Research Institute of Japan said the shortage of copper to process has pushed processing fees to the lowest level in almost 40 years. The cost of turning ore into metal - $39 a ton and 3.9 cents a pound - is the lowest since 1973.
Jiangxi Copper Co., China’s biggest copper producer, said treatment and refining charges have dropped to a level that doesn’t cover the costs of smelting in China.
Sumitomo Metal said it plans to produce only 404,000 tons of copper cathode in 2010 - 10 percent less than the 450,000 ton capacity at its Toyo smelter, and the company says it’s likely to keep output at that reduced rate until at least 2014.
“We don’t want to increase output with raw material sourced from the spot market” where fees are even lower.” Said Nobumasa Kemori, president Sumitomo Metal.
Rio Tinto Ltd. (NYSE: RIO, Stock Forum) - at a recent industry conference in London - said that planned copper mining projects will be unable to support demand growth at current rates and we could see the market for mined copper in deficit for most of the next decade.
Rio sees production from probable copper mining projects as only able to support annual demand growth of 3% per year by 2020.
Rio also said less than half of the world's copper supply, by 2020, will come from low risk regions compared to nearly two thirds in 2000, ore grades will continue to decline and major new copper discoveries are increasingly deep below the surface.
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vervolg:
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CRU International said copper consumption in China is forecast to rise by 14 percent this year.
Icra said India’s copper consumption is forecast to climb 15 percent this year.
The annual per capita consumption of copper in India is 0.47 kg, China’s 5.4 kg and the world average is 2.7 kg. China’s urbanization plans and forecast GDP growth of 9.6 percent a year is expected to drive Chinese copper consumption from the current 5.4 kg/capita to an astounding 10 kg/capita by the end of the decade.
Copper has risen to its highest levels since July 2008.
The International Copper Study Group just said global demand for copper will rise by 4.49% in 2011.
BMO said it anticipates a global supply deficit of some 280,000 metric tons - with a price forecast of $3.70 a pound - for 2011.
Australian equity research firm Resource Capital Research (RCR) said it expects the copper market to move from a small surplus in 2010 to a deficit of around 400,000 tonnes by 2011.
They also expect global yearly demand growth to be between 3 and 5 percent which would represent an incremental annual consumption increase of 600,000 to 900,000 tonnes.
Swiss Bank UBS had the following to say about a second round of quantitative easing (QE2) by the US. “Strong international capital flows will reinforce already powerful domestic credit creation in emerging markets (EM). That should flow through to robust, commodity-intensive growth in EM, while the developed world struggles in the face of higher commodity prices. We believe that QE2 will prolong the bull market in commodities."
“The positive copper price outlook is buoyed by demand from strong economic growth in China and constrained global supply. Other than for the period around the global financial crisis, this has been the central theme of the copper market since the early 2000s and is likely to remain the theme throughout this decade.” Said RCR MD John Wilson
Managing Director of the Metal Bulletin, Raju Daswani said “Copper prices will remain on a broad upward trend. For 2011 our price forecast is $7,900/tonne compared to our 2010 forecast of $7,375.”
Conclusion
As I’ve said many times – mining is the story of depleting assets. New mines are needed to replace those that are being depleted. The deposits that are going to be the new mines of our future are almost all owned by junior companies. These junior companies - the very same juniors that own those future mines - are currently trading, in this author’s opinion, at deep discounts.
Copper’s talking, are you listening? Are Copper, and a few quality copper juniors, on your radar screen?
If not, maybe they should be.
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Langzaam aan wordt men wakker:
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Copper: the new "poor man's gold"
12/1/2010 2:51:05 PM | Jeff Nielson
The price for copper is surging while inventories are in steady decline.
Silver bulls are very familiar with the somewhat facetious label attached to silver: that it is a “poor man’s gold”.
However, as investors to the silver sector have increasingly come to realize, with silver inventories plummeting while silver’s importance to our modern economy continues to grow, silver doesn’t have to take a “back seat” to any other metal.
Meanwhile, the price for a different, semi-precious metal is surging higher, while inventories for it are in steady decline: copper.
Since the commodities Crash of ’08, I have generally avoided all base metals miners in my portfolio – focusing exclusively on precious metals miners, as it was clear that this sector was going to bounce-back well ahead of any other.
However, I certainly never abandoned my general enthusiasm for commodities.
We are currently in the early stages of the largest growth-boom in the history of our species. Previously, the next greatest, protracted episode of economic growth was the rebuilding of Europe following World War II.
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-------------------deel 2:
BeantwoordenVerwijderenThat economic expansion fueled the global economy for decades, before these mature economies began to substitute credit-induced “bubbles” for real economic growth.
This is not the situation in Asia, nor in many other emerging/developing economies. Here we see a similar episode of rapid, concentrated expansion – except that it is involving ten times as many people as the post-World War II economic boom.
As billions of people in (previously) poorer economies begin to urbanize, their standard of living is quickly moving toward the middle-class affluence which Western economies used to take for granted.
There is every reason to believe that a growth-boom fueled by ten times as many people is going to lead to ten times as much total economic growth – meaning that this boom will be ten times as large, ten times as long, or (more likely) some combination of the two. To fuel this unprecedented growth means expanding resource production at the greatest rate in history.
Here we immediately see problems. With “peak oil” already a reality for our global economy, we are seeing supply constraints popping-up for many essential raw materials.
In this respect, I remain heavily influenced by the superb research and analysis conducted by Chris Martenson. While his video presentation, “The Crash Course” is now several years old, Martenson was so far ahead of his time that the analysis remains “cutting edge”.
Among the most notable of Martenson’s conclusions is that it isn’t necessary to be facing absolute limits on the quantities of various minerals in the Earth’s crust in order for us to begin facing “peak production” scenarios. Instead, Martenson focuses on two related points.
First of all, most of the high-grade/easily accessible mineral deposits for many key minerals have already been found and developed.
Thus, we must now dig much deeper, or do much more processing of lower-grade ore in order to simply replace the existing deposits which are drying up.
It is an open (and as yet unanswered) question as to whether we are even capable of significantly expanding supply, given the increasing difficulty (and cost) in extracting these resources from the Earth.
Secondly, this increased “effort” to mine these minerals directly translates into much greater energy requirements. In other words, it will take many more barrels of oil to produce a ton of refined copper than even a single decade earlier. Thus, as resource production becomes more difficult, it also becomes even more energy-intensive.
Even today, in most mines energy is the #2 production cost, behind only labour. This leaves us in a scenario where as oil becomes rapidly more scarce, we will need much more of it to produce every unit of raw materials for this massive, global expansion.
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Taseko kreeg inderdaad slecht nieuws over de Prosperity mijn en zakte flink in elkaar.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenTaseko is dus de perfecte contraire koopkandidaat in koper rond de 4,50.
Ik denk dat ze nog wel een herkansing krijgen voor Prosperity, dus extra kansen omhoog.
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BeantwoordenVerwijderenCopper
Operational constraints and cutbacks initiated in 2009 are projected to constrain mine production to 16.2 million tonnes in 2010, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said. Looking to 2011, increased economic activity is expected to boost end-user demand for the metal much faster than production, pushing the global market deeper into deficit of about 400,000 tonnes.
Zinc/Lead
“Short of silver mines with strong zinc/lead by-product credits there is nothing between here and the horizon in terms of new production. This then implies that a shortage bubble is coming along and prices will spike again as they did in 2006/2007. Primary base metal sources of Zn/Pb will be heading down as mines expire and no new production appears. This is where the real crisis is brewing." Christopher Ecclestone, Hallgarten & Company
Global commodity demand is obviously a combination of factors:
Infrastructure build out in many countries – urbanization and modernization
Increased purchasing power of developing countries growing middle classes
A lack of spending on exploration and development by mining companies, combined with already low inventories of many metals, will likely ensure supply will not be equal to demand for a considerable time yet to come.
This author believes that there is exceptional, and as of yet, undiscovered value in base metal junior companies with quality assets. When you find one that has a coveted, potentially future cash flowing asset such as Reed Lake, the blue sky of a Sails Lake Option and over $12mm in the bank with no debt then that company should be on every investors radar screen. Is VMS Ventures on your radar screen?
If not, maybe it should be.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Richard (Rick) Mills
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http://www.stockhouse.com/Community-News/2010/Dec/2/VMS-Ventures-finds-success-in-potential-elephant-c
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BeantwoordenVerwijderenJP Morgue
Door Willem Middelkoop op 7 dec 2010 om 10:30
Dit weekend werd bekend dat JP Morgan voor een bedrag van 1,5 miljard dollar in de kopermarkt is gestapt. Verondersteld wordt dat deze positie samenhangt met de plannen van JP Morgen om binnenkort met een koperfonds naar de beurs te gaan.
JP Morgan kocht met dit bedrag een substantiële voorraad op die tussen de 50 en 80% bedraagt van de totale kopervoorraad op de London Metals Exchange (LME). Het gevolg was dat de spotprijs omhoog schoot uit angst voor tekortschietende voorraden.
Handelaren zijn er niet gerust op. Volgens Der Spiegel bestaan er in de industrie grote zorgen over Waat Street-banken die zich teveel willen bemoeien met de goederentermijnmarken.
Traditionele commodityhandelaren hebben de LME recent gewaarschuwd dat het beleggen in grondstof-ETF’s de volgende zeepbel zal zijn.
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Kitco Metals geeft de prijzen en voorraden van koper, nikkel, zink, lood en aluminium.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenhttp://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper.html
Op naar de 10.000 USD per ton (dat zal een hoop krantenkoppen en nieuws-items opleveren!!):
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di 07 dec 2010, 09:55
Koperprijs stijgt naar nieuw record
LONDEN (AFN) - De prijs van koper is dinsdag naar een nieuw recordniveau gestegen van meer dan 8966 dollar (6713 euro) per ton. De koperprijs loopt op door het krappe aanbod en de verwachting dat de vraag volgend jaar zal toenemen.
Bij het slot van de handel op de Londense metaalmarkt op maandag stond de koperprijs nog op 8770 dollar per ton.
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interessant artikel:
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Koper is koning
Door Wim Zwanenburg op 1 dec 2010 om 14:00 | Views: 2.000 | Categorie: Aandelen | Tags: Koper, molybdeen
Met een belegging in Freeport-McMoRan profiteren beleggers van de aanhoudende groei van de vraag naar grondstoffen van China en andere emerging markets, de aanleg van infrastructuur en het herstel van de herstel van de wereldeconomie.
Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold is een van oorsprong Amerikaans mijnbouwbedrijf dat koper, goud en molybdeen delft in Noord- en Zuid-Amerika, Indonesië, en in Afrika.
De onderneming heeft ook een kopersmelterij en raffinagebedrijf (Atlantic Copper) in Spanje. In de productie van koper is Freeport sinds de overname van Phelps Dodge Mining in maart 2007 de op één na grootste mijnbouwonderneming ter wereld (na Codelco), met molybdeen is het de grootste.
etc, etc
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http://www.iex.nl/Column/59993/Koper-is-koning.aspx
di 14 dec 2010, 13:36
BeantwoordenVerwijderenKoperprijs stijgt tot nieuw recordniveau
LONDEN (AFN) - De prijs van koper is dinsdag naar een nieuw recordniveau gestegen van 9244 dollar (6866 euro) per ton. Die stijging hangt vooral samen met het krappe aanbod en de verwachting dat de vraag volgend jaar zal toenemen.
De prijsstijging werd ook gedreven door de verzwakking van de dollar. Zowel de euro als het Britse pond bereikten de hoogste waarde ten opzichte van de Amerikaanse munt in drie weken tijd. Daardoor wordt koper, dat wordt afgerekend in dollars, aantrekkelijker voor investeerders die rekenen in euro's of ponden.
De dollar verloor terrein na een waarschuwing door kredietbeoordelaar Moody's maandagavond. Het ratingbureau stelde dat de Verenigde Staten dreigen om de meest gunstige waardering voor hun kredietwaardigheid (AAA) te verspelen, als de belastingvoordelen uit het tijdperk Bush worden verlengd. De negatieve gevolgen voor het overheidstekort wegen zwaarder dan het positieve effect van de plannen op de economische groei, stelde Moody's.
In de slipstream van koper bereikten ook de prijzen voor lood, nikkel en tin het hoogste niveau van de afgelopen maand.
wo 29 dec 2010, 14:51
BeantwoordenVerwijderenKoper nog nooit zo duur
LONDEN (AFN) - De prijs van koper heeft woensdag een nieuw record bereikt van 9447 dollar (7211 euro) per ton. Dat had volgens grondstoffenhandelaren te maken met een afgezwakte dollar en leveringsproblemen vanuit de Collahuasi-kopermijn in Chili, de op twee na grootste ter wereld.
De prijs van het veel in de bouw en de halfgeleiderindustrie gebruikte metaal wordt al tijden opgedreven door een sterke vraag uit China. De Chinese overheid kondigde afgelopen weekend een renteverhoging aan om de groei af te remmen en de inflatie te beteugelen. Toch geloven analisten niet dat dit veel invloed zal hebben op de koperprijs wegens de aanhoudende sterke vraag.
,,Daardoor zullen de liquiditeiten wel wat afnemen en dat zal mogelijk de vraag beïnvloeden. Maar om de koperprijs te beïnvloeden en de inflatie te beteugelen zal China zwaardere maatregelen moeten nemen'', zei een analist van Commerzbank.
Dollar
Op de valutamarkt verzwakte de dollar tot 1,3130 dollar. Daardoor wordt koper, dat wordt afgerekend in dollars, aantrekkelijker voor investeerders die rekenen in euro's of ponden.
Ook de prijzen van andere grondstoffen zoals lood, zink en aluminium vonden woensdag weer de weg omhoog.
VANCOUVER, Jan. 10 /PRNewswire/ - Taseko Mines Limited (TSX:TKO.to - News) ("Taseko" or the "Company") announces that its 2010 core drilling program completed at its wholly-owned Aley Niobium Project located near Mackenzie, British Columbia has been highly successful. Assay results indicate strong potential for development of a major niobium deposit and mine operation.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenTaseko's 2010 exploration program comprised geological mapping and diamond drilling of 23 drill holes (2010-12 through 2010-34), for a total of 4,460 metres. Assay results for 21 of these drill holes have been received. These holes intersected excellent grade niobium mineralization across an area measuring over 900 metres east-west and 350 metres north-south. Mineralized drill intercepts range up to over 200 metres in length; the true widths will be determined by further delineation drilling. Niobium mineralization intersected is highly continuous and close to surface. The extensive body of niobium mineralization indicated by the 2010 drilling is wide open to expansion in at least three directions and to depth.
Russell Hallbauer, President and CEO of Taseko, stated: "We are very excited by the results of the 2010 drill program. Intersections of over 200 metres of niobium mineralization, many with high grades and beginning near surface, indicate that our Aley deposit has the potential to become a significant low cost, open pit niobium mine.
"The niobium market is very robust as use of this commodity continues to grow. The steel industry uses niobium to produce high strength, low alloy steels in a wide and growing range of applications. Ferroniobium prices remain stable, averaging approximately $50 per kilogram, and only three significant mines supply the global market. Therefore there is strong potential for our Aley deposit, which has all the appearances of a high quality discovery, to help fill the growing demand from steel producers for this important metal.
"For reference, the Niobec mine located in Quebec which has been in production since 1976 is an underground niobium operation with average grades of 0.45-0.55% Nb2O5. Niobec is one of IAMGOLD's most valuable assets and has been expanding production over the past five years with present production of some 5,000 metrics tonnes of ferro niobium annually.
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commentaar:
Een zeer fraaie vondst voor mijn favoriete kopermijn Taseko.
Niobium voor 50 USD per kg, klinkt heel wat beter dan ca 4,50 per pond.
koers Taseko ca 5 CAD.
Gelukkig denkt de beurs hetzelfde als ik:
BeantwoordenVerwijderenDe koers staat ruim 10% hoger op ca 5,65.
Taseko Takes a Back Alley to Prosperity
BeantwoordenVerwijderenBy Christopher Barker | Motley Fool
January 12, 2011 |
All right, so Taseko Mines' (AMEX: TGB) last road to prosperity turned out to be something of a dead end … at least for now. That doesn't mean this intrepid mid-tier miner won't find an alternate path to expanding mineral wealth in western Canada.
Taseko has found a potential back alley leading straight to profitville. Successful exploration of the company's Aley property in 2010 now has the miner charting a path that leads right through a rare and useful element. The miner has encountered some seriously thick intercepts of high-grade niobium, beginning near the surface, at its Aley property in British Columbia. The discovery appears very promising for supporting a major open-pit mining operation for this obscure resource.
Western Copper Corporation is an exploration and development company with significant gold, copper and molybdenum resources and reserves in four Canadian properties.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenThe flagship asset is the Casino project located 380 km northwest of Whitehorse, Yukon, which has reserve of 8 million oz of gold, 4.4 billion lb of copper, and 475 million lb of molybdenum, contained in approximately 1 billion tonnes of ore. A positive pre-feasibility study was completed in August 2008, projecting a 30 year mine life with a 20.4% pre-tax IRR, C$1.8 billion NPV (8%) and a 3.8 year payback period. A revised pre-feasibility study will be released in late Q1/2011
The Carmacks project, located 220 km northwest of Whitehorse, Yukon, is a near term producer and is permitted for construction. It will produce 32 million pounds of cathode copper per year at a cash cost of US$ 0.84/lb of copper. A positive feasibility study was completed in May 2007.
The company has two other copper projects in its development pipeline: Island Copper Project in British Columbia and Redstone in the Northwest Territories.
DEALTALK-Canada's copper juniors now prime takeover targets
BeantwoordenVerwijderen6:28pm GMT+0100
Tue Feb 22, 2011 11:35am EST
* Big copper producers shopping for smaller miners
* Top players eye developed assets over exploration
* Copper prices at record levels as supply fears grow
* Predators could also become prey as sector heats up (In U.S. dollars unless noted)
By Bhaswati Mukhopadhyay and Julie Gordon
BANGALORE/TORONTO, Feb 22 (Reuters) - A record run for copper prices, fueled by Chinese industrial demand, has the world's most prolific copper producers shopping for smaller miners capable of boosting their output almost immediately.
Dozens of Canadian-based juniors have the potential to become prime targets. The strongest candidates already have operating mines with healthy growth profiles, and their share prices are undervalued, analysts say.
The drive to acquire is especially urgent because the output at some of the world's top producers is falling. Rio Tinto (RIO.L) sees copper demand doubling in the next 15 to 20 years but the Anglo-Australian mining giant experienced a 16 percent drop in mined production last year.
"We really haven't developed the next generation of new mines in terms of finding large-scale projects," said analyst John Hughes at Desjardins Securities. "Without the next wave of proper supply, junior companies with large resources will continue to be targets for the larger mining companies."
As a consequence, senior producers such as First Quantum (FM.TO) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.N), as well as Vale (VALE5.SA), BHP Billiton (BLT.L) and other diversified miners, will line up to buy established production rather than invest in development projects from scratch, analysts say.
"It takes such a long time to find something, then permit it, then build it, then ramp it up," said David Radclyffe, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets. "You're going to miss that leverage to the current price that you can get today."
Copper to soar to $10 level, PDAC told
BeantwoordenVerwijderen3/8/2011 5:46:52 PM | Peter Kennedy
Economic growth in China may start to slow as the world’s metal producers fail to keep up with Chinese demand. But that shouldn’t prevent copper from hitting $10 in next three years: consultant.
An insatiable appetite for metals will lead to an inevitable slowdown in China’s economic growth rate as the major producers struggle to keep up with the Asian country’s demand, a metals sector consultant said Tuesday.
“It’s not going to be a crash, but the breaks are coming on,’’ said Jack Lifton, a metals industry consultant, who is also the founding principal of TMR Metals Research in Detroit.
One of a panel of experts who spoke at the PDAC mining convention in Toronto , Lifton said the world does not have the productive capacity to feed the appetite of a country like China, which has experienced near double digit growth in the last 30 years.
In order to feed that growth, China has been consuming massive amounts of metal, including 38% of the world’s copper production. But in order to curb price inflation, the Chinese government is currently trying to slow the economic growth rate to about 7% from 11% in 2010.
“What people don’t seem to understand is that it takes about 10 years to develop a mine,’’ said Lifton. “It also takes a huge amount of money.”
Ik zit heel erg dik in de koper-aandelen.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenEr zijn talloze overnames te verwachten en de koperprijs blijft maar stijgen.
Het einde van de stijgende koperprijs zal onvermijdelijk komen bij de volgende wereld-recessie en die zal nog wel een paar jaar op zich laten wachten.
Een recessie in de BRIC-landen zou eerder kunnen komen dan bij ons, maar who knows...??
March 17, 2011
BeantwoordenVerwijderenTaseko Announces 2010 Operating Profit of $126 million
March 17, 2011, Vancouver, BC -- Taseko Mines Limited (TSX: TKO; NYSE Amex: TGB) ("Taseko" or the "Company") reports the results for the twelve and three months ended December 31, 2010. This release should be read with the Company's Financial Statements and Management Discussion & Analysis ("MD&A"), available at www.tasekomines.com and filed on www.sedar.com. Except where otherwise noted, all currency amounts are stated in Canadian dollars. Taseko's 75% (effective March 31, 2010) owned Gibraltar Mine is located north of the City of Williams Lake in south-central British Columbia. Sales and production volumes reflected in this release are on a 100% basis unless otherwise indicated.
For the year ended December 31, 2010, Taseko had an operating profit of $125.5 million and net earnings of $148.6 million ($0.80 per share). This compares to an operating profit of $48.3 million and net earnings of $10.6 million ($0.06 per share) for the year ended December 31, 2009. Revenue for 2010 was $278.5 million from the sale of 86.3 million pounds of copper and 0.9 million pounds of molybdenum at average realized prices of US$3.66 per pound and US$16.32 per pound, respectively.
For the three months ending December 31, 2010, Taseko had an operating profit of $57.5 million and net earnings of $25.3 million ($0.14 per share). Total sales for the fourth quarter were 33.6 million pounds of copper and 0.3 million pounds of molybdenum at average realized prices of US$4.12 per pound and US$16.24 per pound, respectively.
Russell Hallbauer, President and CEO of Taseko commented, "Strong financial performance in 2010 was driven by improved copper production and the rising copper price environment. 2010 copper production increased by over 30% compared to 2009 and molybdenum production increased by 50% over the same period. These improvements are a result of the ongoing investments in mine and concentrator equipment. The strength of the Canadian dollar, up 33 % since the first half of 2009, has had a material impact on Gibraltar's US dollar denominated operating costs. In the past year alone, the change in exchange rate has increased total costs by approximately US$0.17 per pound."
Minmetals plans $6.5 billion bid for Equinox
BeantwoordenVerwijderenEQN.TO
$5.71
LUN.TO
$8.33
MELBOURNE | Sun Apr 3, 2011 7:34pm EDT
(Reuters) - China's Minmetals Resources (1208.HK) plans to make a C$6.3 billion ($6.5 billion) takeover bid for copper miner Equinox Minerals (EQN.TO), looking to scupper Equinox's own bid for Lundin Mining (LUN.TO).
The deal is the latest in a string of copper mining takeovers, with deals seen as the quickest way to boost production to take advantage of copper prices trading near record highs.
Minmetals, which owns mining operations in Australia and Asia, said Monday it would offer C$7 per share for Equinox, a 23 percent premium to Equinox's close in Toronto last Friday of C$5.71.
"I would describe it as a realistic offer but not a knock-out bid," said James Bruce, portfolio manager at Perpetual which recently sold its Equinox shares.
"It's a cleverly timed bid by Minmetals. We thought Equinox were paying too much for Lundin and were taking on too much debt in that deal."
..........................................
commentaar: Een fantastische knokpartij is losgebarsten in de koper-sector, ik denk en hoop dat er nog velen zullen volgen.
Ik doe ook mee: na het bod van EQN heb ik zowel EQN als LUN gekocht.
Minmetals Resources seeks copper, lead, zinc assets as top priority
BeantwoordenVerwijderenSINGAPORE, April 5 | Tue Apr 5, 2011 4:10am EDT
(Reuters) - Minmetals Resources has put copper, lead and zinc assets on top of its priority list, followed by nickel and aluminium bauxite, as the company seeks to diversify its assets, said a senior company official on Tuesday.
The company also hopes to add assets from Central Africa's copper belt and the Andean region of South America to its portfolio in the next five years, Michael Nossal, executive general manager of business development, told reporters on the sidelines of a conference.
Barrick Gold to Buy Equinox Minerals for $7.8 Billion
BeantwoordenVerwijderenBY CHRIS V. NICHOLSON
As prices for commodities keep climbing, the Barrick Gold Corporation said on Monday that it had agreed to acquire Equinox Minerals for 7.3 billion Canadian dollars, or $7.8 billion.
The all-cash offer values Equinox Minerals, which is listed in Toronto and Sydney, at 8.15 Canadian dollars a share, 30 percent above the price it shares were trading at on Feb. 25, the last trading day before the company announced an unsolicited bid for the Lundin Mining Corporation. The Equinox board has unanimously approved the Barrick Gold deal and withdrawn its offer for Lundin.
Global supply deficit heating up copper sector M&A activity
BeantwoordenVerwijderen6/1/2011 8:14:55 AM | Matthew Carr,
In 2010, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventories fell 25 percent – below what the world consumes in a single month
We’re all well aware by now that the world is facing a copper supply deficit. The price of the metal rose 30 percent in 2010. Meanwhile, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventories fell 25 percent – below what the world consumes in a single month.
Of course, the usual suspects are to blame: booming growth in the emerging and developing worlds. But the tight supply situation means there are plenty of opportunities for investors.
Demand, demand, demand…
Global demand for copper increased eight percent in 2010, outpacing supply.
No surprise, China was the main driver behind the increases. Even U.S. copper exports to China surged 20 percent.
But the supply deficit is going to get worse.
This year, Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO, Stock Forum) believes worldwide copper demand is going to increase at least 4.5 percent. That again outstrips new mine production output forecasts of three percent. This is why Barclays Capital believes the supply shortfall for 2011 will double from 2010 to 822,000 metric tons.
It also means 2011 will be another record year for merger and acquisition (M&A) activity for the copper mining sector. In 2010, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) recorded 2,693 global mining M&A deals worth $113 billion, with copper accounting for 19 percent of the activity. For the decade, total global mining M&A is a staggering 11,000 deals worth $785 billion.
No other sector even comes close to matching that…
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commentaar: binnenkort dus weer recordprijzen voor koper en koper-aandelen en de bijbehorende fusiegolf.
Taseko Pursues Federal Approval for New Prosperity, Submits Revised Project Description
BeantwoordenVerwijderenTGB 4.87 -0.14
On Monday June 6, 2011, 6:29 pm
Public Online Information Resource Launched to Promote Open Discussion
VANCOUVER, June 6, 2011 /CNW/ - Taseko Mines Limited (TSX: TKO; NYSE Amex: TGB) ("Taseko" or the "Company") has submitted a revised project description to the Federal Government in pursuit of final approval of its New Prosperity Gold-copper Project.
The New Prosperity project addresses the concerns identified during the original federal review process while building on the core strengths and benefits of the original Prosperity proposal. The new proposal preserves Fish Lake and limits the impact to the environment. It aims to relieve concerns of the First Nations and the federal Panel while at the same time delivering significant economic value to British Columbia and Canada.
"We have made significant efforts to address all the necessary requirements for final federal approval. Preserving Fish Lake, which adds $300 million in capital and operating expense to the project is an example of that effort and a reflection of the depth of our commitment to the success of New Prosperity and to the principles of sustainability," says Taseko President & CEO Russell Hallbauer.
"Prosperity is the 7th largest undeveloped gold-copper porphyry deposit in the world and as such has the ability to deliver economic value and social benefit on a national scale. We are looking forward to delivering the potential of this project for Canadians, including all levels of Government, First Nations communities, the people of the Cariboo and our shareholders," concluded Mr. Hallbauer.
Taseko is launching an in-depth online information portal (http://newprosperityproject.ca). The site encourages public dialogue and represents a progressive approach to community engagement.
China's Dwindling Copper Stockpiles Could Boost Copper Stocks
BeantwoordenVerwijderenJune 15, 2011, 12:10 pm
Shares of Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX - News), the largest U.S. copper miner and one of the three largest in the world, are down 2% and the stock has lost 4% in the past three months, but brighter days for Freeport and other copper producers could be ahead as China, the world's largest consumer of the red metal, may have seen its stockpiles fall by 50% in the past two months. That would likely result in more imports and higher prices for copper.
The Copper Stocks Index isn't responding to the news quite yet as it is down 1.6% today. Even while speculation about slower Chinese growth is in heavy supply these days, Goldman Sachs sees copper trading to an all-time high of $11,000 per ton in 12 months, according to Bloomberg News.
The amount of copper held in warehouses tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, plunged 53% from this year's high on March 17 to 83,275 tons last week, Bloomberg reported. Higher prices would benefit producers such as Freeport and BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP - News), the world's largest mining company. Earlier this month, Macquarie Group said in a report that copper in Chinese bonded warehouses had fallen by 150,000 tons, highlighting China's still-strong demand for the red metal.
Other copper stocks on the move today include Southern Copper (NYSE: SCCO - News), which is also down 2%. Sterlite Industries (NYSE: SLT - News) is off 3% while Teck Resources (NYSE: TCK - News) and Encore Wire (NASDAQ: WIRE - News) are both down 1%.
ING: overwogen in koper door China
BeantwoordenVerwijderen28 jun 2011, 15:15 - IEXProfs Redactie
ING Investment Management handhaaft haar overwogen positie in koper, ondanks de recente prijsdaling. Dat meldt de vermogensbeheerder in een persbericht. Een belangrijke reden is dat ING verwacht dat de Chinese vraag naar koper binnenkort zal aantrekken.
Volgens Koen Straetmans, Senior Strateeg Real Estate & Commodities, zijn de cijfers over de Chinese koperimport verwarrend. “In februari daalde de invoer aanzienlijk, maar deze verstoring was te wijten aan het Chinees Nieuwjaar. Maart gaf een omslag te zien, waarbij de koperimport steeg. In april en mei vielen de kopervolumes echter terug met een daling van respectievelijk -18,2% en -25,3% op jaarbasis en van begin dit jaar tot heden.
“Kennelijk is China gevoeliger geworden voor grondstoffenprijzen. De importvolumes dalen voor bepaalde grondstoffen waarvan de prijzen sterk zijn gestegen, zoals koper en steenkool. Vervolgens rijst de vraag of dit te wijten is aan een daling van de eindvraag of dat dit meer samenhangt met voorraadbeheer. In onze optiek lijkt dat laatste het geval te zijn.”
Het feit dat de koperprijzen in de Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) lager lagen dan in de London Metal Exchange (LME) maakte import onaantrekkelijk. Nu de SHFE-prijzen boven die van LME zijn geklommen, zal dit volgens ING binnenkort veranderen en leiden tot een stijging van de koperimport.
Hoe te profiteren van deze trend?
BeantwoordenVerwijderenHendrik,
BeantwoordenVerwijderendat is niet zo moeilijk: je koopt gewoon een aantal koper-aandelen, zie dit draadje.
In ieder geval zou je Taseko moeten hebben.
Press Release Source: Copper Fox Metals Inc. On Monday July 11, 2011, 6:00 am EDT
BeantwoordenVerwijderen(CONTAINING 6.1 BILLION POUNDS COPPER, 383 MILLION POUNDS MOLYBDENUM AND 5.8 MILLION OUNCES GOLD)
VANCOUVER, July 11, 2011 /CNW/ - ("Copper Fox" or the "Company") (TSX-V: CUU) is pleased to provide its shareholders the results of the recently completed National Instrument 43-101 compliant resource estimate for the Schaft Creek copper-gold-molybdenum-silver deposit located in northwest British Columbia, Canada. The resource estimate was prepared by AMEC Americas Limited ("AMEC") and the National Instrument 43-101 compliant report related to the resource estimation will be filed on SEDAR within 45 days. Highlights of the resource estimate using a 0.20% copper equivalent cut-off (Base Case) are as follows:
Highlights:
a) The Measured mineral resource for the Schaft Creek deposit (at a 0.20% copper equivalent cut-off) is estimated to be 40.3 million tonnes grading 0.36% copper, 0.023% molybdenum and 0.25g/t gold (copper equivalent of 0.61%) containing 319.6 million pounds copper, 20.5 million pounds molybdenum and 0.32 million ounces gold,
b) The Indicated mineral resource for the Schaft Creek deposit (at a 0.20% copper equivalent cut-off) totals 971.2 million tonnes grading 0.27% copper, 0.017% molybdenum and 0.18g/t gold (copper equivalent 0.45%) containing 5.8 billion pounds copper, 363 million pounds molybdenum and 5.5 million ounces gold,
c) The Measured and Indicated mineral resource for the Schaft Creek deposit (at a 0.20% copper equivalent cut-off) totals 1.01 billion tonnes grading 0.27% copper, 0.017% molybdenum and 0.18g/t gold (copper equivalent 0.46%) containing 6.1 billion pounds copper, 383 million pounds molybdenum and 5.8 million ounces gold,
d) The Inferred mineral resource for the Schaft Creek deposit (at a 0.20% copper equivalent cut-off) totals a further 283.6 million tonnes grading 0.24% copper, 0.011% molybdenum and 0.15 g/t gold (copper equivalent 0.39%) containing 1.5 billion pounds copper, 69 million pounds molybdenum and 1.3 million ounces gold,
e) The silver grade of the Schaft Creek deposit is estimated to range between 1 and 2 g/t. The silver content of the deposit has not been included in the resource estimate due to legacy data issues, and
f) This resource estimate reports significantly higher average copper grade in the Measured mineral resource (0.36%) category, the Indicated mineral category (0.27%) and the Inferred mineral resource (0.24%) category compared to the Measured mineral resource category (0.30%), the Indicated mineral category (0.23%) and Inferred mineral resource category (0.14%) set out in the preliminary feasibility study on the Schaft Creek deposit dated September 2008.
"IJzersterke grondstoffentrend"
BeantwoordenVerwijderen01 aug 2011, 11:30 - Pieter Kort
“Een financiële crisis is een probleem als je in financiële instrumenten handelt. En als er een crisis uitbreekt zal dat in eerste instantie ook drukkend werken op commodityprijzen. Maar het zou juist goed voor goud en zilver zijn, want dat zal dan in prijs stijgen.” Goud en andere edelmetalen – goed voor 45% van de portefeuille - vormen in feite een natuurlijke hedge tegen grote financiële ellende, zegt Henderson.
“Wij zijn al overwogen in goud sinds de val van Lehman Brothers. Niet omdat we zo negatief zijn op de economie. Ik geloof persoonlijk zeker in een economisch herstel. Dat is juist goed, want als je in herstel gelooft, geloof je ook dat grondstoffen het goed gaan doen.” Uiteindelijk is dat het achterliggende verhaal bij alle beleggingen van Henderson: hoezeer de westerse wereld ook is verdiept in haar eigen crisis, het werkelijke groeiverhaal speelt zich elders af.
Metalen in sneltreinvaart
“Natuurlijk, Amerika heeft het moeilijk, Europa heeft het moeilijk, maar de grote trend is nog dezelfde. Dat is de sterke groei en toenemende vraag in opkomende economieën. Die zal ervoor zorgen dat veel grondstoffen nog jarenlang schaars zullen blijven.“ Het zou te makkelijk zijn om te zeggen dat alle grondstoffen dus koopwaardig zijn, dat weet de grondstoffenveteraan zelf als geen ander. In sneltreinvaart raast hij door de specifieke marktomstandigheden in een reeks verschillende grondstoffen heen:
“In koper zie ik de eerste tekenen dat China de voorraad weer aan het ophogen is. Dat zal ook moeten, want er is een groot sociale woningbouwprogramma gestart – en bij die bouw is ook veel koper nodig."
"Aan tin is moeilijk te komen. Ook dat is een bouwmateriaal, het wordt onder ander gebruikt in soldeer. De nieuwe productie van tin is echter niet groot – en India heeft beperkingen opgelegd - dus daar zal ook krapte blijven."
"Zink is niet erg interessant. In die markt is de groei van het aanbod sterker dan de groei van de vraag."
"Aluminium is wél interessant. Er is veel voorraad, maar de productie in China zal waarschijnlijk afnemen, omdat de aluminiumsmelterijen veel energie verbruiken. En die energie is op het moment erg duur. Een bedrijf als Rio Tinto, met aluminiumproductie op andere plaatsen in de wereld, kan daarvan profiteren."
Financiering is een risico
Na de metalen schakelt Henderson meteen over op de energiemarkt. “Ik ben nu onderwogen in energie. Er is niet zo’n enorm tekort. Maar met 20% van de portefeuile hebben we nog steeds een significante exposure in de energiemarkt. Ik ben vooral gecharmeerd van kolen. Die positie hebben we in snel tempo opgevoerd. We kregen vrij plotseling te maken met een ontwrichting van het aanbod, door de aardbeving in Queensland. In China zijn ook veel kolenmijnen geslioten, vanwege ongelukken met mijnwerkers.”
Opvallend in Hendersons benadering is dat hij duidelijk opinies heeft over de prijzen van commodities, maar daar nooit rechtsreeks in belegt. Zijn fonds belegt vooral in mijn bouwers en producenten. “Ik geloof meer in mijnbouw, hoewel daarmee wel meer aandelenrisico is gemoeid. Het kan zijn dat de winsten worden beïnvloed door andere zaken dan de prijs van grondstoffen. Je hebt periodes van disconnect, maar op den duur is de link er altijd en zullen ze weer elkaars kant op bewegen.”
Een probleem wat bedrjven wel hebben, in tegenstelling tot grondstoffen zelf, is toegang tot financiering. Voor iedere nieuwe mijn is geld nodig en banken zijn de laatste jaren niet erg scheutig met geld. Is dat geen extra risico? “Financiering is wel een risico. Het is moeilijker dan vroeger om productie gefinancierd te krijgen. Typische consortiumfinanciereing zie je niet vaak meer. Nu zie je veel financiering door staatsbanken, bijvoorbeeld in China. Maar goed, als iets een goed project blijkt te zijn, is het eigenlijk geen probleem meer. We hebben een koperproject in Mexico. Dat is is zó winstgevend dat de banken over elkaar heen vallen om mee te mogen doen.”
Saxo: aantrekkelijk koper
BeantwoordenVerwijderen31 okt 2011, 15:30 - IEXProfs Redactie
Samen met de positieve sentimenten die de Europese leiders eindelijk teweeg brachten, klommen gronfstoffen ook met rasse schreden uit het dal van de afgelopen periode. Dit meldt senior manager Ole S. Hansen van de Deense zakenbank in zijn wekelijkse Commodity Update. De Reuters Jeffries CRB – de benchmark voor grondstoffen – steeg afgelopen maand met 5,5% en lijkt op weg naar prettiger oorden.
De grote vraag voor grondstoffenstrateeg Hansen is of de Europese besluitvaardigheid voldoende is om het beleggersvertrouwen in de eurozone te herstellen. Al met al was het een goede week, met name voor de risicovollere assets, meldt hij. Die liftten niet alleen mee op het Europese succes, maar ook op positieve economische cijfers uit de Verenigde Staten en China. Het hernieuwde vertrouwen duwde de dreiging van een recessie verder op een zijspoor, waardoor zowel beleggers als fondsen een duw in de positieve richting kregen. Volgens Barclays trokken beleggers in september maar liefst 10 mlijard dollar terug uit grondstoffen.
De wederopbouw was deze week goed voelbaar in alle grondstoffen, in het bijzonder in koper, zilver en ruwe olie. “Koper is zonder twijfel de absolute winnaar van deze week”, noteert Hansen in zijn rapport. Met een rally van 20% in één week ervaart koper de grootste stijging (per week) sinds 1986. Tijdens de afgelopen periode keerden hedgefunds zich uit angst voor een nieuwe recessie voor het eerst sinds oktober 2009 tegen het metaal. De hernieuwde, meer comfortabele marktsituatie – en een hernieuwde vraag vanuit China naar koper – geeft de prijzen een ‘dramatische’ boost.
Hernieuwde vraag industriële materialen
De prijs van ruwe olie zag sinds begin oktober een herstel van 21%, en ook goud lijkt zich vooralsnog goed te herstellen van de scherpe correctie van september. Ook zilver en platinum deden deze week goede zaken door – net als koper – goud te outperformen. Beide metalen reageerden eveneens op de positieve gebeurtenissen op de markt, die wijst op een hernieuwde vraag naar industriële materialen. De zwakke schakel in de ketting is ijzererts. Terwijl Chinezen steeds harder vragen om koper, is hun vraag naar ijzererts afgenomen. Mede dankzij overaanbod vanuit Australië en Brazilië is de prijs van ijzererts sinds begin september met éénderde gedaald.
Canada panel to review Taseko's Prosperity project
BeantwoordenVerwijderenMon Nov 7, 2011 7:05pm EST
Nov 7 (Reuters) - Canadian federal regulators on Monday ruled that Taseko Mines' revised Prosperity copper-gold project will be reviewed by a federal review panel.
Ottawa, last year, overruled British Columbia's provincial government and blocked the development of the controversial project, due to "concerns about the significant adverse environmental effects."
In August, Taseko submitted a revised project proposal to the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency (CEAA). However, aboriginal groups and other opponents of the project argue that the revised proposal, if approved, would still harm the rights of indigenous groups in the area and cause damage to Fish Lake, a trout-bearing lake located beside the proposed mine.
If Laws Change, 'Penny Hoarders' Could Cash in on Thousands of Dollars
BeantwoordenVerwijderenBy NEAL KARLINSKY and MARY-ROSE ABRAHAM | ABC News – Fri, Dec 2, 2011
If Laws Change, 'Penny Hoarders' Could Cash in on Thousands of Dollars (ABC News …
Joe Henry is on a first name basis with bank tellers across his hometown of Medford, Ore., scouring 15 banks a week with one thing on his mind: pennies.
Henry is often seen toting around bags of pennies, some he buys, others he changes back in for cash, which seems a little strange at first. He's not a collector, he is what's known as a "penny hoarder" and he is not alone.
Inside a shed next to his house, Henry has orange tubs filled with 200,000 pennies, and he spends hours sorting through roll after roll of the coins. But it's not just any and all pennies, Henry is only interested in those that are dated from 1982 and earlier because those are the coins made with 95 percent copper. A copper penny is worth more than other pennies -- now mostly made of zinc -- currently priced at $0.024.
"The copper has such a different sound than zinc pennies do," Henry said. "Real money has that definite sound of money and if you listen to a modern zinc penny, they don't sound the same, they sound sort of tinny."
Henry even has a $500 home counting machine to separate out the copper ones.
Much like the resurging obsession with gold, the price of copper has skyrocketed in recent years and the rising price has led to some unusual sprees. Thieves have been exploiting the value hidden in obscure items, stripping copper wiring from phone and utility cables, from construction sites, even from a 122-year-old copper bell that was stolen from a San Francisco cathedral.
In San Diego, so much copper wiring has been stolen from eight different city parks, that soccer teams can't practice because the field lights stopped working.
But penny hoarders aren't thieves, just opportunists. There are a slew of listing for pennies in bulk on eBay, but what's amazing is they include listings for $10 in pennies being sold for $20 dollars. If you think only a sucker would pay two cents for a penny, you're missing out on a business opportunity that Adam Youngs , who runs a massive penny sorting operation in Portland, Ore., has perfected.
He explained how he can sell a $100 worth of pennies for $176, when shipping and packaging are included.
Youngs' operation, the Portland Mint , is locked inside a secure facility that deals with armored cars -- selling and shipping to clients in every state -- and works in pennies by the ton. He said he has clients with deep pockets who are storing huge sacks of pennies and he has inquires from hedge funds.
"Just in face value alone, about $270,000 dollars [in pennies] right now," Youngs said. "That is just the face value, that is not even the copper value. The copper value is about three times that much."
Inside the Portland Mint. Credit: ABC News
Clients use Youngs because he separates copper pennies from the chump change -- the newer pennies that are only worth $0.01.
But in the weird world of penny hoarding, getting to the copper is a very big problem. It's illegal to melt pennies an there is an obscure federal law that makes it illegal to transport more than $5 in pennies out of the country.
Penny hoarders know this of course, but they also know something else. In what could be the biggest legislation to hit the U.S. Mint in 50 years, officials are now looking at the composition of pennies and nickels and considering an overhaul. If the laws change and the mint decides to abolish the penny, people would be free to melt them down for the copper.
A penny saved, many times over, could be a whole lot earned.
A heretical glimpse into the ghost of copper future
BeantwoordenVerwijderenPosted by Izabella Kaminska on Dec 16 11:45.
Simon Hunt Strategic Services — the eponymous market analysis vehicle of copper market veteran Simon Hunt – has just published its 2012 outlook.
Be warned, though, it carries the following disclaimer:
The views set out in this report will be deemed heretical by many but they are based not just on understanding the industry’s history of the last 50-odd years or its cyclical nature (good times never go on forever much as we would like them to!), but on an analysis of material which has actually gone into furnaces and that held within the financial sector and others…
Naturally, FT Alphaville always likes a contrarian view, especially when it’s one based market fundamentals like stuff that’s “actually gone into furnances”.
So here, for the benefit of all, is a summary of Simon Hunt’s top heretical views (our emphasis).
* The world is in a balance sheet depression which will make a second and perhaps more dangerous credit crisis almost inevitable. It should break out next year or in 2013.
*The three pillars of the world economy, the USA, Europe and China, each have their own problems, but their impact is global because of the feedback loops from the financial sector to the economy.
*The USA has a debt and deficit profile which is unsustainable. The Euro Zone has yet to fully decide whether it can forge a full fiscal union or whether the costs are too high in which event membership will have to be restructured. And China is trying to put its economy onto a more sustainable growth path at a time of leadership change.
*Debt and demographics will shape future global growth. Governments have made promises to their citizens which they now cannot afford and even less in the future as retirees in so many countries are mounting. Markets have become frustrated by political indecision. They want answers.
*Since the power of markets is infinitely greater than the resources of central banks, they will get their way.
*The world will suffer from rolling recessions starting in 2013, continuing until about 2018 and characterised by deflation. Most asset prices will fall during this period.
* By 2018/20 the process of deleveraging will have run its course. The process of creative destruction will be transforming many industries as new technologies replace many traditional industries and sectors.
*The world beyond 2020 will be a different place. Gone will be the volatility of recent years; gone will be the wanton policies of certain central banks; gone will be the consumption binge of recent decades; and gone will be the power and influence of banks. It will be also be the engineers and scientists who make things who will replace the bankers as guardians of the universe. Monetary policy will hark back to old times with money supply rising parri passu with world GDP.
*This means that asset inflation will be largely non-existent because funds will experience solid long-term growth opportunities in equities.
*World industrial production should grow by an average of just 0.4% a year from 2011 to 2019; by 3% a year from 2020 to 2029; and by 2.8% a year from 2030 to 2035. These growth rates compare with those experienced from 1990 to 2010 of 3.3% a year.
How that relates to copper:
2)
BeantwoordenVerwijderen*Two mega developments will impact world copper consumption: the level of global business activity and substitution.
* High and volatile copper prices, due to the increasing involvement of the financial sector, has forced multinational companies, such as utilities, auto and appliance companies together with their fabricator friends, to limit the amount of copper used in their systems through better designs and tighter specifications and/or to design copper out of their systems through using other materials or by new technology.
*Some 2.5 million tonnes of global copper has been lost from 2006 to 2010 by substitution in its fullest sense and probably a further 3.4 million tonnes by 2015. Strategic decisions have been taken to either design copper out of products or to introduce a new round of re-designing and tightening specifications.
*It is in the period, 2015 to 2020 that the wire and cable sector will begin to feel the negative impact of High Temperature Super Conductors (HTS); it is in this period that they will be introduced commercially in some key countries. In fact, they are now quietly and slowly being introduced into China‟s grid system.
*Based on 2010 data our current forecast is that around 7.5 million tonnes of copper will be lost from 2011 to 2030 of which around 80% will be within the wire and cable sector, largely because of the impact of HTS and towards 2030 of carbon nanotubes.
*In fact, the world of nanotechnology is very likely to transform the design and material content of much of what we use today, including many of the appliances which contain copper. Its global market has risen from an estimated $9.4bn in 2005 to about $25.2bn this year and a forecast $750bn by 2015.
*China’s consumption growth will slow sharply in line with its economy. Based on the country’s demographics and rising productivity, its trend growth for GDP should slow to 5% a year from 2015 to 2020 and from there to 2030 to only 3% a year. Copper will grow at a slower pace.
* World refined copper consumption’s growth rates are set out below, implying that global consumption will increase from 17.9MT this year (after stripping out purchases by the financial sector) to 23MT in 2035.
And what’s the most significant copper industry trend which will have to be unwound?
In Hunt’s (key heretical) opinion it’s the increasing involvement of the financial sector in the market — both by purchasing physical copper and by its involvement in the futures markets — all of which is detaching prices from real-world fundamentals.
The following chart sums up the recent discrepancy perfectly:
As he notes:
This is an argument often refuted by producers but the evidence that it has occurred is overwhelming. For instance, how can the industry lose 2.5 million tonnes to substitution since 2005 and still have prices that have nothing to do with what fabricators and end users see in their underlying business. It is because the activities of financial players mask what is really happening to business.
Thus, it is the divergence between “demand”, a phrase now only used by producers and their analytical friends, and “consumption”, the latter representing material that goes into furnaces, which is the real issue. In fact, had actual consumption been as strong as the “demand” data, then spot premiums would have been consistently and significantly higher than producer premiums. Other than for short periods, largely for technical reasons, this has not been the case. Moreover, again other than for brief periods, fabricators have had no problems in obtaining cathode.
Conclusion: copper prices will fall sharply, and that, says Hunt, is almost a given.
Taseko spending $134 million on Gibraltar, will keep plugging away at Prosperity
BeantwoordenVerwijderenMINING.com News | January 11, 2012
Taseko Mines Limited (TSX: TKO; NYSE Amex: TGB) on Wednesday announced it is going ahead with its Gibraltar capital program and is planning to spend $134 million to complete the project by the end of this year.
The investment will increase Taseko’s share of copper production capacity to 140 million pounds per year.
Gibraltar, located in British Columbia, is a Joint Venture owned by Taseko Mines Limited (75%) and Cariboo Copper Corp. (25%).
Taseko also committed a further $31 million in 2012 for development and advancement of the wholly-owned Aley Niobium Project and New Prosperity gold-copper Project, both in British Columbia the company said in a statement. Taseko has been in the news a lot about the controversial Prosperity project. In November pro-and anti-mining forces clashed once again over the proposed mine in northern BC after
Taseko started legal action against people it alleges had obstructed preparations at the minesite.
The $1.5 billion project is being revived after the the federal Minister of the Environment ordered the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency to set up a panel to examine the project which was rejected by the previous federal government.
Said Russell Hallbauer, President & CEO: “A key strategic priority for Taseko in 2012 will be positioning the Company for growth in 2013 and beyond. This priority includes the GDP3 project build-out and the near-term production growth it will provide. We are over six months into the 18 month project. On a 100% basis, Gibraltar has spent $56 million and has fixed price commitments of $70 million, with a budgeted total of $235 million (excluding mining equipment). The remaining $109 million will be made up of construction materials and contracts. The project is on budget and on time for a December 2012 completion.
“The free cash flow from our 75% share of Gibraltar production will support Taseko’s Aley and New Prosperity project expenditures. This year will be pivotal for our two development projects. We expect to complete a feasibility study on Aley in the fourth quarter of 2012 and the recently announced environmental assessment process for New Prosperity is scheduled to complete in November 2012.
“Operationally, we are well positioned for the completion of this work, with all of these value-enhancing programs funded from operations and Taseko’s $340 million cash position, as at the beginning of 2012. In addition, our Gibraltar operating margins are protected from copper price volatility by the US$3.50/ pound puts that are in place for all of 2012 against 90% of Taseko’s share of Gibraltar copper production.”
Enorme stijging koperprijs
BeantwoordenVerwijderenTags: ETFS Leveraged Copper, Grondstoffen, koper
Door Jan-willem Nijkamp | 20 januari 2012 | in koper Tip van de week |
Vanuit de opslaghuizen van de London Metal Exchange bereikt ons het bericht dat de voorraden koper naar het laagste niveau sinds midden 2009 zijn gedaald. De scherpe voorraaddaling in de Londense warenhuizen suggereert dat er weer tekorten kunnen gaan ontstaan. De Chinese koper importen bereikten in december een recordhoogte. Het feit dat de Chinese economie minder hard afzwakt dan eerder gedacht draagt daar zeker aan bij.
Maar niet alleen de groei in China, ook het feit dat de Chinezen aan het einde van een periode van voorraadafbouw zijn gekomen en ze hun voorraden weer opnieuw dienen aan te vullen speelt mee.
Van koper wordt wel gezegd dat het de beste voorspeller is van de wereldeconomie. Het metaal heeft vele industriële toepassingen – vooral in de bouw - en heeft als het ware een Phd in de economische wetenschap en geldt als een betere voorspeller dan alle economen bij elkaar. De prijs van koper de laatste tijd zegt veel. Oktober j.l. bereikte de prijs van koper een bodem van 6735 dollar.
In februari vorig jaar – toen alles nog goed ging in de wereldeconomie – was deze prijs ruim 10.000 dollar. Zie daar de correlatie van koper met de economie. En jawel, sinds de bodem in oktober j.l. is de prijs inmiddels weer aangetrokken naar ruim 8200 dollar. Zullen de economische groeicijfers de prijs van koper omhoog gaan volgen?
Tip van de Week: Koop: ETFS Leveraged Copper (LCOP)
Uiteraard kun je als belegger in aandelen stappen wanneer je in de voorspellende waarde van koper gelooft, maar ook in het koper zelf. Voor de echte durfal is bovengenoemde belegging wel interessant: de ETF’s Leveraged Copper profiteert met een hefboom – 200 % – van de stijging van de koperprijs. De ETFs staan genoteerd in Londen (LSE) en worden verhandeld in USD. Na een bodem van $ 14,30 in oktober staat de ETF nu op $ 20,50. Een stijging van 43 % (in USD).
Datum advies: 20 januari 2012
Koers: $ 20,50
Huidige koers: klik hier
ISIN Code: JE00B2NFTF36
Ondergetekende heeft zelf geen positie in deze belegging. Ze maken wel deel uit van de modelportefeuille van Critivestor.
Wilt u ook weten wanneer er uitgestapt wordt uit deze beleggingen? Neem dan een abonnement op onze Critivestor nieuwsbrief. Deze kost 99 euro inclusief BTW voor drie maanden.
Het rendement sinds 3 oktober van vorig jaar bedraagt 855 euro oftewel 8,7%.
Klik hier voor meer informatie en meldt u aan via:critivestor@dekritischebelegger.nl
Goldman Sachs: koper gaat te snel
BeantwoordenVerwijderen01 feb 2012, 09:30 - IEXProfs Redactie
Koperprijzen stijgen te veel en te snel, menen de grondstofspecialisten van Goldman Sachs, maar zij blijven bullish over het metaal. Zij zijn ervan overtuigd dat koper is uitgestegen boven de fundamentals. Niettemin blijft de zakenbank optimistisch met betrekking tot koper en verwacht het oplopende prijzen tot ver in 2012. Steun hiervoor ziet Goldman Sachs in de Chinese monetaire verruiming, sociale woningbouw, een einde aan de afbouw van voorraden in Europa en een gematigde economische groei in de VS.
De koperprijs is sinds midden december met 16% gestegen, gestuwd door beter dan verwachte macrocijfers en verminderde ‘tail risks’ in Europa en China. In de vorige Metal Detector schreef Goldman Sachs dat het koper als ondergewaardeerd zag. Nu gaat het echter volgens de zakenbank ‘te veel, te snel’ en is de koperprijs uitgestegen boven het 3-maands koersdoel. Goldman Sachs ziet geen tekenen van krapte in vraag en aanbod in de afgelopen twee maanden.
Toch vrezen de metaalkenners van de zakenbank geen groot risico aan de downside. De prijzen worden gesteund door nieuwe verruimende maatregelen in China, de VS en Europa. Een eventuele terugval in de prijzen kan een koopmoment opleveren bij een belegginsvisie voor 6 tot 12 maanden.
De verwachting is dat het afbouwen van de voorraden in Europa en China ten einde loopt, met ruimer Chinees beleid steunt dat de metaalprijzen. Zink en nikkel noteren boven het korte termijn koersdoel van de zakenbank. Voor koper en aluminium handhaaft Goldman Sachs de verwachting dat de prijzen blijven stijgen. De bank voorziet een sterke versnelling van de mondiale vraag naar koper in de tweede helft van dit jaar.
Koperprijs zet opmars voort
BeantwoordenVerwijderen08 feb 2012, 09:15 - IEXProfs Redactie
Goldman Sachs bekijkt in de Metal Detector de ontwikkeling van de koperprijs over de afgelopen jaren. De vraag naar koper is sinds de kredietcrisis weer aangetrokken, maar deze bevindt zich (ex-China) nog niet op het niveau van voor de crisis. In 2011 is de vraag achter gebleven bij de verwachtingen, maar de grondstofspecialisten van Goldman Sachs denken dat eind 2012 en in 2013 de vraag naar koper, zowel in China als in de geïndustrialiseerde landen, weer fors zal toenemen.
Goldman Sachs voorspelt een groei in de vraag naar koper met 3%. Laten ze China buiten beschouwing dan trekt de vraag met 1,3% aan. China is de grote aanjager van de koperprijs sinds 2004. Sinds 2010 begint de vraag ook vanuit Noord-Amerika aan te trekken, volgens de zakenbank een teken dat er verder herstel in de pijplijn zit. De groeiende vraag komt voort uit toename van de bouwactiviteiten in de VS en monetaire verruiming in diverse ontwikkelde economieën. Vanuit China komt de groei door het sociale huizenbouwprogramma daar.
Aan aanbodzijde worden de achterliggende jaren gekenmerkt door structurele verstoringen in het aanbod. De enkele jaren dat het aanbod wel fors groeide lieten echter geen daling van de koperprijs zien. Deze structurele haperingen in aanbod zorgen ervoor dat Goldman Sachs twijfelt aan een bescheiden overaanbod in 2013. Iets waar in de markt wel vanuit wordt gegaan.
Goldman Sachs voorziet een einde aan het afbouwen van voorraden in Europa. Samen met een ruimere politiek in China geeft dit steun aan de metaalprijzen op middellange termijn. Wel heeft de recente rally al wat weggenomen van het opwaartse potentieel. Het huidige prijsniveau is volgens de specialisten van de zakenbank een goede waardering voor beleggers.
In zink en nikkel wordt geadviseerd te hedgen, de prijzen noteren boven de korte termijndoelstelling van de bank. Voor aluminium ziet Goldman Sachs de komende zes tot twaalf maanden nog ruimte om te stijgen.
Vast new copper supplies depressing prices? Don’t worry, it’s never going to happen
BeantwoordenVerwijderenFrik Els | April 24, 2012
Supplies in the industry – around 16 million tonnes of concentrate per annum – have been largely flat for a number of years.
The Financial Times reports on expected growth in copper production worldwide and its impact on prices noting research from Wood Mackenzie that forecasts greater growth in supply of the metal next year and in 2014 than over the past 13 years.
Copper is currently trading at around of $8,100 a tonne ($3.65 per pound) – close to three month lows and down 4% in April – as stockpiles in China, the world’s number one consumer of the commodity, continue to grow, but this is still way above average production costs in the industry which is south of $6,000 a tonne.
The market for the red metal could go into surplus “at some point in the next 18 months” and push the price of copper closer to what it costs to get out of the ground.
But that would only happen if the many copper projects in the pipeline do actually become reality; something the paper is high skeptical of going so far as to quote a senior trader in the metal as saying “the miners are all lying” about the chances of their projects coming on stream.
FT points to numerous problems facing the industry. Apart from rising labour and electricity costs, political problems (vide Argentina’s seizure of energy firm YPF), and a scarcity of project finance, skills shortages and tough regulation is also hampering the industry:
A shortage of engineers and contractors, particularly over the next 18-24 months when a large chunk of capital expenditure is supposed to kick in, is already causing problems, miners say. Engineering companies are sending their “C team” to jobs which might once have merited the “A team”, with the consequence that teething problems at new projects are becoming more common.
Regulation is becoming tougher and more costly to meet. In northern Chile, for example, no project is likely to be approved using fresh water, meaning new mines must desalinate water and pump it from the sea to the desert – a process that can add 20-30 per cent to operating costs.
Copper price: There’s something happening here. What it is ain’t exactly clear
BeantwoordenVerwijderenFrik Els | May 6, 2012
Due to its widespread use in construction, communication and transport copper is a bellwether for the global metals industry.
Talk that the copper market is being manipulated by traders and that dramatic changes to global stockpiles of the red metal are distorting prices have become louder recently.
Like all industrial metals copper’s fortunes are largely determined by Chinese consumption. The recent slide in the copper price – down 3% last week to $3.72 a pound – is being driven by news that China is getting rid of its excess inventory to alleviate shortfalls elsewhere in the world.
Jiangxi Copper, China’s largest copper producer and smelter, is gearing up to export large quantities of the metal and up to last week when it fell 4%, copper stockpiles in Shanghai had almost doubled this year.
CRU, a London-based researcher, estimate that “China may hold as much as three quarters of the “spare” stock that is actually available to the market.”
These figures are in stark contrast to copper inventories in the rest of the world.
etc.
http://www.mining.com/2012/05/06/copper-price-theres-something-happening-here-what-it-is-aint-exactly-clear/?utm_source=digest-en-mining-120506&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=digest
You too can help build Oyu Tolgoi: Rio Tinto offers Ivanhoe rights at 32% discount
BeantwoordenVerwijderenFrik Els | June 8, 2012
Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN)(NYSE:IVN)(NASDAQ:IVN) on Friday capped a good week for the company on stock markets with the official terms of its $1.8 billion rights offer.
The offer allows shareholders to buy additional shares for of US$7 or C$7.17 per share – a 32% discount to yesterday's closing price and down from US$8.34 when the deal was first announced.
The proceeds of the offer will be used for the completion Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine in Mongolia, one of the biggest mining projects in the world.
Rio Tinto took full control of the Vancouver-based miner in April in a deal that led to the resignation of the board and founder and CEO Robert Friedland who had been advancing Oyu Tolgoi for the past eight years. Two Rio insiders now head the company.
Rio, the world's third largest miner, will take up all its right under the offer and also put in place a standby commitment to acquire any Ivanhoe shares not taken up shareholders who have seen the value of their holdings plummet over the last year.
Rio could end up with a much bigger chunk of the closely watched miner come July 19 – in terms of the offer roughly 260 million new shares are expected to be issued representing some 35% of Ivanhoe's current outstanding shares.
Although Rio has in the past said it does not want to own all of Ivanhoe, a complete takeover and delisting of Ivanhoe is not an improbability.
Despite a tumble in the copper and gold price Ivanhoe ended up 1.3% on Friday at $10.45 bringing its gains for the week to 12.7%. Ivanhoe was worth $7.8 billion in Toronto on Friday having lost 41% of its value this year.
The stock – a favourite of resource stock investors – has been been on a wild ride since hitting an all time high above $28 in January last year affording it a peak market cap of $20 billion.
Ivanhoe has already spent over $5 billion on Oyu Tolgoi and the mega-mine is scheduled for production in Q3. Overall costs have now ballooned to $13.2 billion, up from $9.5 billion before.
Ivanhoe holds 66% of Oyu Tolgoi and Mongolia's government the rest. In October Ivanhoe and Rio dodged a bullet when the Mongolian government said it was rethinking the 2009 deal and that it wanted to own half the mine.
Ivanhoe shares plunged on the news, but the firm took a tough stance and after some desperate negotiations Mongolia backed off.
The mine is set to produce more than 1.2 billion pounds of copper, 650,000 ounces of gold and 3 million ounces of silver each year and is almost three-quarters built.
Ivanhoe also holds 58% interest in Mongolian coal miner SouthGobi Resources (TSX:SGQ), a 59% interest in copper-gold miner Ivanhoe Australia (TSX:IVA)(ASX:IVA) (whose CEO stepped down on Friday) and a 50% interest in Altynalmas Gold, a private company developing the Kyzyl Gold Project in Kazakhstan.
The company had to tried to sell off these holdings to go it alone at Oyu Tolgoi, but had been unsuccessful forcing Rio to step up with funding.
Frik Els
Baja Mining has 45 days to come up with money for Boleo
BeantwoordenVerwijderenFrik Els | June 20, 2012
Besieged Baja Mining (TSX:BAJ) added another 14% on Wednesday following good gains the day before to trade at $0.205 after announcing it had negotiated a 45-day standstill agreement with lenders for its Boleo project.
The lenders to Baja's 70%-owned Mexico subsidiary, Minera y Metalurgica del Boleo, have agreed to refrain from exercising rights and remedies until August 1, 2012 over defaults. MMB recently got for $21 million cash from Baja and the Korean consortium that owns 30% as it tries to find funding to continue developing the copper-cobalt-zinc mine in Mexico.
Baja said engineers SRK Consulting is performing a due diligence on Boleo while BMO Capital Markets continues to "actively canvass potential strategic and financial interested parties".
On Monday Louis Dreyfus Commodities Metals Suisse commenced arbitration proceeding with the London Court of International Arbitration concerning a $35 million cost overrun facility.
In terms of the agreement, Dreyfus will be issued common shares in Baja to the equivalent value of the amounts drawn under the facility, based on a share price of C$1.10.
Dreyfus now wants the deal cancelled and is also asking for damages. Baha has vowed to launch a vigourous defence.
Monday's complication is just the latest setback for Vancouver-based Baja which has now lost almost 70% of its value this year. It is now worth just $69.7 million on the Toronto big board.
The rot set in last year with an acrimonious boardroom battle that ended with a reconstituted board and the resignation of the CEO and founder last week.
But what really crushed the stock was an announcement little over a month ago that the company's Boleo copper-cobalt-zinc project in Mexico will now cost $1.143 billion to construct, a 21.5% increase.
Before the cost run-ups, first flagged at the end of March, Baja forecast $890 million would be needed to build the mine.
Baja has previously said that Boleo remains on track to enter production in the second half of 2013 and a special committee has now been set up to look at new ways of financing.
The bitter – and very public – boardroom dispute with 20%-shareholder Mount Kellet Capital Management has kept the tight-knit Vancouver mining community buzzing for months.
Mount Kellett, which has pumped $80 million into Baja, had not been pulling punches, accusing Baja CEO John Greenslade of “enriching family and friends” at the expense of shareholders.
For its part Baja called Mount Kellet a wolf in sheep's clothing wishing to do a takeover of the company by stealth.
At a special shareholder meeting on April 3, the Greenslade camp scored a narrow victory over Mount Kellet, although it turned out to be a Pyrrhic one.
Frik Els
Copper market squeeze: It's back!
BeantwoordenVerwijderenFrik Els | July 3, 2012
Copper prices should be bolstered in the second half of this year as the effects of a surprise rate cut in China in early June begin to flow through, stimulating demand in the world's top copper consumer.
Reuters reports that on top of increased demand, the re-emergence of a dominant market player in London Metal Exchange copper stocks could squeeze the market just as it did in April.
Earlier in the year an "entity took control of up to 90 percent of cash contracts and inventories on the LME, facing off against Chinese market participants who were caught with short positions".
That entity was widely believed to be Swiss commodities trading giant Glencore:
"Glencore may be positioning themselves in a period like this now where there's fairly weak demand outside of China and so picking up warrants in the U.S. and Europe is probably not all that difficult," said a market source who declined to be named.
"So I don't think we've seen the end of squeezes by any stretch of the imagination."
The LME handles around 80% of global trade in metals futures and manages 600 metal warehouses around the world.
LME copper stocks had fallen dramatically since the start of the year and have not improved significantly since hitting the lowest levels since the 2008 recession during the northern hemisphere spring.
The copper price is also – like it was in April – in backwardation, meaning stocks for delivery in three months are cheaper than cash copper for immediate delivery.
On the fundamental side, the outlook for copper has also improved. Chile's state-owned copper giant Codelco, which dwarfs other global producers of the metal, said last week it has not seen the effects of a slowdown in China on its copper exports nor the prices it receives.
The International Copper Study Group released data showing the global market for refined copper fell into a deficit of 236,000 tonnes during the first quarter versus a deficit of 61,000 tonnes at the start of 2011 as miners struggle with labour issues and new supply remains slow to come to market.
Copper futures were trending higher on Tuesday building on 10 straight sessions of gains with front-month contracts trading at $3.52 a pound.
The red metal is now up just over 6% over the last month and at these levels are well within marginal costs which for copper producers are in the $6,000 – $7,000 a tonne range or roughly $2.75 – $3.15 a pound.
http://www.mining.com/2012/07/03/copper-market-squeeze-its-back/?utm_source=digest-en-cu-120703&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=digest
Copper North Provides Corporate Update
BeantwoordenVerwijderenPress Release: Copper North Mining Corp. – 1 hour 54 minutes ago
Symbol Price Change
COL.V 0.075 0.00
VANCOUVER , July 20, 2012 /CNW/ - Copper North Mining Corp. ("Copper North" or the "Company") (COL.V) is pleased to provide an update on current corporate activities, this includes progress on the updated Feasibility Study for the Carmacks Copper Project ("Carmacks"); the Company's community engagement program and successful Land Use Permit ("LUP") application for the Redstone Property ("Redstone"); and expansion of its investor relations activities.
Carmacks Copper Project, Yukon
Earlier this year, Copper North reported (see News Release dated February 1, 2012 ) that it had engaged M3 Engineering & Technology ("M3") to prepare an updated Feasibility Study for the Carmacks Copper Project ("Carmacks"). M3 had previously prepared the National Instrument 43-101 compliant, Feasibility Study report for Carmacks in May 2007 . Completion of the updated Feasibility Study remains on target for the third quarter, 2012.
Golder Associates Ltd. ("Golder") is finalizing the revised feasibility level design for the permanent Heap Leach Facility ("HLF") which will incorporate the use of inter-lift liners (see News Release dated March 1 , 2012). Further, Golder is updating the site wide water balance and water quality model, and is preparing a revised closure plan for the HLF. The revised closure plan will include an enhanced store and release cover - optimized to limit water infiltration into the closed heap; and a new passive treatment design.
In July, Golder completed the annual site inspection at Carmacks, a condition required by the current Quartz Mining Licence (issued in 2009).
Copper North is continuing the baseline surface water quality, hydrology, and groundwater quality sampling at the Carmacks site, to add an eighth consecutive open-water season to the baseline database for the site.
Concurrently, the Company is preparing a revised Project Proposal for submission (in the third quarter, 2012) to the Yukon Environmental and Socio-economic Assessment Board (see News Release dated April 26 , 2012).
2)
BeantwoordenVerwijderenRedstone Property, Northwest Territories
The Company's application for a five year Type 'A' LUP, submitted in support of the 2012 exploration program at the Redstone Property (see News Release dated May 1, 2012 ) has been approved by the Mackenzie Valley Land and Water Board. A LUP has been granted to Redbed Resources Corp., a wholly owned subsidiary of Copper North. The LUP will enable the Company to conduct exploration activities on its Redstone Property for a period of five years from the date of grant.
Local community engagement in the Northwest Territories was initiated by the Company in early 2012, in advance of the submission of the LUP application. In the Sahtu Region, the Company has completed a Traditional Knowledge study, conducted in partnership with the Tulita Renewable Resources Council, the Fort Norman Metis Land Corporation, the Tulita Land and Financial Corporation, and the Tulita District Land Corporation. In the Dehcho Region, the Company has met with board representatives of the Pehdzeh Ki First Nation Development Corporation as well as senior representatives of the Liidli Kue First Nation, Fort Simpson (Fort Simpson is the regional centre of the Dehcho).
With respect to the Redstone exploration program, field crews have been mobilised to the field camp. The focus of the exploration program (which is comprised of geological mapping, ground geophysics and geochemical sampling) is to test potential deposit extensions at the high-grade, stratiform copper deposit at Coates Lake; as well as to increase the Company's understanding of the regional prospectivity of the project by further exploring the known copper occurrences in the claims located to the north of Coates Lake.
Copper North's President and CEO, Dr. Sally Eyre stated "I am very satisfied with our progress as we continue to systematically advance Carmacks and Redstone. Efficient processing of the Redstone LUP application has enabled us to successfully execute our 2012 exploration program, and as a result, we are able to start planning field activities for 2013; at Carmacks, we remain on schedule to complete the updated Feasibility Study in the third quarter - which will subsequently enable us to complete and submit the revised Project Proposal to the Yukon Environmental and Socio-economic Assessment Board".