Gevaarlijke hype aan de gang in REE-aandelen

Molycorp: Rare and In Demand

by: Paul Goodwin

September 27, 2010 | about: MCP

Headlines about “rare earth elements” or “rare earth metals” are popping up all over the place as China

is accused of cutting off the supply of these scarce commodities to Japan in protest over the arrest of a

trawler captain accused of fishing in waters controlled by Japan but claimed by China. (China denies the export ban.)

This dispute has focused a lot of attention on rare earths, highlighting how little most people know about

them and why they’re important.

I can’t repair the damage you did by sleeping through your high school chemistry class, but here’s a quick refresher (and a stock recommendation, to boot).

There are 17 rare earth elements, and each one has its uses. When cathode ray TV sets were still dominant, the element europium supplied phosphor that produced the vivid red. Rare earth magnets that use neodymium, praseodymium, samarium, gadolinium and dysprosium are much more powerful

than standard ones. Lanthanum increases the refractive index of glass, making it a popular addition to

camera lenses. Cerium is the catalyst in your self-cleaning oven. Holmium, erbium and ytterbium are used as dopants in lasers.

It’s not an important part of the story, but I was fascinated to learn that four of the rare earth elements

are named after the little Swedish town of Ytterby where they were first discovered. So we have yttrium, terbium, erbium and ytterbium, which has got to create some confusion.) These exotic elements have other uses as well, but it’s their extensive and increasing use in hybrid and

battery-driven cars that is causing tension. China emerged as a dominant producer of rare earth metals in the 1990s, and its aggressive pricing caused the shutdown of many smaller mines around the world.

But with China now producing 95% of the world’s annual production (or 96% or 97%, depending on what you read), things are getting ticklish as China—which now uses about 60% of the rare earths it produces —needs more and more of its own production. 

Even leaving out the potential for the use of these increasingly elements as a punishment for those who

tick China off, there’s the very real need for rare earths in automotive, high-tech and defense industries

in the U.S. and elsewhere.

It takes time to re-open old mines and ramp up production, but that’s exactly what’s happening in many places, including the Mountain Pass rare earth mine in southern California near the Nevada border. Rare earth deposits often contain thorium and radium, and the radiation from these elements led a uranium prospector to the Mountain Pass deposit in 1949. By the 1960s, the mine was in high gear,producing europium for color TV screens, and heavy production increased through 1995, making Mountain Pass the main source of the world’s supply. But repeated spills of wastewater with radiological contamination (plus the advent of China as a low-cost producer) caused the suspension of separations activity in 1998 and mining operations were shut down at Mountain Pass in 2002.

It has taken concerns about strategic defense needs and the very real possibility that China will reserve

more and more of its production for Chinese companies to kick Mountain Pass production back into gear, but that’s what’s happening. 4-10-2010 Molycorp: Rare and In Demand -- See… seekingalpha.com/…/227298-molycor… 1/2

So my stock pick of the week is Molycorp (MCP), which is pumping $500 million into the reopening of the

Mountain Pass mine. Molycorp has actually been processing new output since 2009, using existing stockpiles of the

bastnasite ore concentrate left over from earlier operations. But with the infusion of new cash, mining

operations are scheduled to resume in 2011.

Mountain Pass has an estimated 2.21 billion pounds of proven and probable rare earth oxides with an

average 8.24% ore grade. And Molycorp has a 30-year mining permit (and an associated environmental impact report) issued at the end of 2004. Molycorp’s bottom line has been a bunch of quarterly losses, to date, which is just what you’d expect from a capital-intensive industry and a development stage company.

But the story is so compelling that the stock, which came public in late July, has already nearly doubled,

with today’s China vs. Japan headlines only stoking the flames. Is it speculative? Of course. It’s a mining operation and the company hasn’t made a cent yet.

If you decide to take a flier on this one, keep it small and average up as you get a little profit cushion to

work with. It’s going to be a bumpy—but fascinating— ride.

Disclosure: None 

4-10-2010 Molycorp: Rare and In Demand -- See…

seekingalpha.com/…/227298-molycor… 2/2