Surprised it lasted this long. Soviet-era palladium stockpiles said to be depleted
Frik Els | April 26, 2012
The size and composition of Soviet Russia’s platinum group metal stockpiles have been a contentious issue in the PGM market ever since the collapse of the USSR in 1989.
When in need of cash the Russian government is wont to release reserves – particularly palladium of which it is the world’s number one producer – on the open market.
They did this at the end of 2002 sending palladium prices plummeting. It can also work the other way as with the standoff between Russia and Georgia over South-Ossetia in 2008.
From under $400/ounce at the start of that year, the price of the precious metal shot to a high of $600 at the end of February 2008, only to collapse again as tensions receded.
Apart from the secrecy surrounding the stockpiles, the volatile price movements are exacerbated because palladium production is so heavily concentrated in just two countries – South Africa and Russia.
The pair of nations produced just under 200,000 kilograms palladium in 2010. The third largest producer, the US, could only haul 11,600 kilograms out of the ground in 2010.
On Thursday palladium, used in autocatalysts and dentistry, was changing hands for $672 an ounce down from highs above $800 last year. But those multi-year highs could now be in sight again reports Commodity Online:
The amount of palladium released onto the market by the Russian government decreased to 750 thousand ounces in 2011 from 1000 thousand ounces in 2010, feeding rumours that the Russian stockpile is now close to depletion. Government officials have indicated that this is the case.
Investment bank Barclays estimates 300,000 ounces could still find its way to traders this year while Russian news agency Interfax quoted number one producer Norilsk as saying Russian government reserves have already dried up.
Whatever the correct number, a deficit of palladium – a 9 million ounces per year industry– is likely in 2012.
Apart from Russian reserves no longer distorting the market, South Africa’s dwindling supply – 200,000 ounces of PGMs may not reach the market from the African nation – is bound to boost prices further.
Asteroid miners explain just how they are going to do it
BeantwoordenVerwijderenMichael Allan McCrae | April 24, 2012
Planetary Resources took the wrapper off the new company that plans to mine asteroids, and the company has half a road map on how to get precious metals out of the sky.
Like any mining junior, the first step for Planetary Resources is resource evaluation. The first step will be launching low-Earth orbiting satellites, Arkyd-100 Series, that will scan for likely targets. Planetary Resources is borne out of a satellite manufacturer, Arkyd Astronautics.
Data will help prioritize near-earth asteroids as targets for the company’s follow-on Arkyd-300 Series swarm expeditions. The company plans to build redundancy into its missions by sending multiple spacecraft on the same mission so if one breaks, the mission can continue. The satellites will also be cheaper.
Asteroids, notes the company, are not very far away.
“Actually, some near-Earth objects are the most accessible destinations in the Solar System. These are energetically closer to us then even the surface of the Moon and that’s because they have Earth-like orbits and they also have small gravity fields. So, we can reach them with very little propulsion,” writes the company.
Getting the ore from asteroid to the earth’s surface is still a ways off, and the company is leveraging unnamed future technologies.
“The microgravity environment presents unique challenges for materials acquisition and processing that require a different way of thinking about the problem. Problems associated material transport and handling must be solved with a new set of tools.”
The company will be based in Bellevue, Washington.
While asteroids are rich in nickel, iron ore and PGM, the company is also keen on finding water.
“Water is perhaps the most valuable resource in space. Accessing a water-rich asteroid will greatly enable the large-scale exploration of the solar system. In addition to supporting life, water will also be separated into oxygen and hydrogen for breathable air and rocket propellant,” said Eric Anderson, Co-Founder and Co-Chairman, Planetary Resources, Inc.
Full news release from Planetary Resources is below.
Expanding the resource base of humanity to include the solar system
Seattle, Wash. – April 24, 2012 — Planetary Resources, Inc. announced today its plan to mine Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) for raw materials, ranging from water to precious metals. Through the development of cost-effective exploration technologies, the company is poised to initiate prospecting missions targeting resource-rich asteroids that are easily accessible.
Resource extraction from asteroids will deliver multiple benefits to humanity and grow to be valued at tens of billions of dollars annually. The effort will tap into the high concentration of precious metals found on asteroids and provide a sustainable supply to the ever-growing population on Earth.
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BeantwoordenVerwijderenA single 500-meter platinum-rich asteroid contains the equivalent of all the Platinum Group Metals mined in history. “Many of the scarce metals and minerals on Earth are in near-infinite quantities in space. As access to these materials increases, not only will the cost of everything from microelectronics to energy storage be reduced, but new applications for these abundant elements will result in important and novel applications,” said Peter H. Diamandis, M.D., Co-Founder and Co-Chairman, Planetary Resources, Inc.
Additionally, water-rich NEAs will serve as “stepping stones” for deep space exploration, providing space-sourced fuel and water to orbiting depots. Accessing water resources in space will revolutionize exploration and make space travel dramatically more economical.
“Water is perhaps the most valuable resource in space. Accessing a water-rich asteroid will greatly enable the large-scale exploration of the solar system. In addition to supporting life, water will also be separated into oxygen and hydrogen for breathable air and rocket propellant,” said Eric Anderson, Co-Founder and Co-Chairman, Planetary Resources, Inc.
Of the approximately 9,000 known NEAs, there are more than 1,500 that are energetically as easy to reach as the Moon. The capability to characterize NEAs is on the critical path for Planetary Resources. To that end, the company has developed the first line in its family of deep-space prospecting spacecraft, the Arkyd-100 Series. The spacecraft will be used in low-Earth orbit and ultimately help prioritize the first several NEA targets for the company’s follow-on Arkyd-300 Series NEA swarm expeditions. Chris Lewicki, President and Chief Engineer, said “Our mission is not only to expand the world’s resource base, but we want to increase people’s access to, and understanding of, our planet and solar system by developing capable and cost-efficient systems.”
“The promise of Planetary Resources is to apply commercial innovation to space exploration. They are developing cost-effective, production-line spacecraft that will visit near-Earth asteroids in rapid succession, increasing our scientific knowledge of these bodies and enabling the economic development of the resources they contain,” said Tom Jones, Ph.D., veteran NASA astronaut, planetary scientist and Planetary Resources, Inc. advisor.
Planetary Resources, Inc. is financed by industry-launching visionaries, including Google CEO Larry Page and Ross Perot, Jr., Chairman of Hillwood and The Perot Group, who are committed to expanding the world’s resource base so that humanity can continue to grow and prosper:
Eric E. Schmidt, Ph.D., Executive Chairman of Google, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Planetary Resources, Inc. investor: “The pursuit of resources drove the discovery of America and opened the West. The same drivers still hold true for opening the space frontier. Expanding the resource base for humanity is important for our future.”
K. Ram Shriram, Founder of Sherpalo, Google Board of Directors founding member and Planetary Resources, Inc. investor: “I see the same potential in Planetary Resources as I did in the early days of Google.”
Charles Simonyi, Ph.D., Chairman of Intentional Software Corporation and Planetary Resources, Inc. investor: “The commercialization of space began with communications satellites and is developing for human spaceflight. The next logical step is to begin the innovative development of resources from space. I’m proud to be part of this effort.”
Some of the company’s advisors include film maker and explorer James Cameron; General T. Michael Moseley (Ret.); Sara Seager, Ph.D.; Mark Sykes, Ph.D.; and David Vaskevitch.
Founded in 2009 by Eric Anderson and Peter H. Diamandis, M.D., Planetary Resources, Inc. is establishing a new paradigm for resource utilization that will bring the solar system within humanity’s economic sphere of influence by enabling low-cost robotic exploration and eventual commercial development of asteroids. For more information, please visit www.PlanetaryResources.com.
Ik neem aan dat dit bedrijf tzt naar de beurs zal gaan om geld op te halen en dat dus iedereen mee kan doen met deze 'space-mining'.
VerwijderenIk vermoed echter dat het nog heel lang zal duren voordat we buitenaardse platina kunnen gebruiken.
11-11-2011 @ 12:31
BeantwoordenVerwijderenVraag naar platina en palladium zal tot 2020 blijven groeien.......
Global platinum demand is expected to increase 5.8% a year during the period 2010 to 2020, reaching 10.319-million ounces.
Speaking at the Geological Society of South Africa’s Platinum Day conference, in Johannes- burg, mining corporate finance company Allan Hochreiter partner René Hochreiter said that, since 1975, platinum demand had grown by 2.7% a year.
Platinum supply was expected to increase to 9.834-million ounces, up from the 6.6-million ounces recorded in 2010. However, the industry will face a significant shortfall by 2015, easing slightly by 2020.
Palladium demand would grow by 2.3% a year, compared with a 5%-a-year growth between 1981 and 2010, while rhodium demand was expected to rise 9.2% a year, a decrease from the 39.4%-a- year growth during the same period.
Palladium had seen a surplus over the past six years, owing to Russian stock supply, Hochreiter said; however, a shortfall of palla- dium was experienced last year. Supply in 2010 was 7.290-million ounces, 2.575-million ounces of which originated from South Africa, while demand reached 9.625-million ounces, compared with the 7.850-million-ounce demand in 2009.
While demand was expected to decrease to 7.855-million ounces by 2020, with palladium supply reaching 8.4-million ounces, the palladium industry would experience a shortfall until 2015.
Last year, China accounted for d 25% of global platinum demand, reaching 1.985-million ounces, while North America required 19%, or 1.505-million ounces. Japan’s and Europe’s demands were 15% and 27% respectively.
This demand was driven mostly by the 3.125-million ounces in the autocatalyst industry and 2.415-million ounces in the jewellery sector. South Africa supplied 4.635-million ounces of this demand, with Russia following at 825 000 oz and North America at 210 000 oz, while recycling provided 1.840-million ounces, Hochreiter said.
By Natasha Odendaal
http://www.edelmetaalplaza.nl/web_redactie.asp?onderwerp=edelmetaalplaza%20edelmetalen&id=17281
june 6, 2012, 12:00 a.m. EDT
BeantwoordenVerwijderenPalladium: the next hot commodity?
Commentary: Demand still soaring as supply tightens
By Sterling Wong
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — With declining supply and rising demand, palladium looks like a good investment, says an expert.
While gold and silver typically hog commodities headlines, one under-the-radar precious metal with plenty of upside is palladium.
So said North American Palladium PAL +1.79% CFO Jeff Swinoga when he presented at last week’s Euro Pacific Capital investor conference. Swinoga obviously has a vested interest in pushing palladium, but he made sure to back up his claims with evidence. Related article, read Famed Broker Warns: Worry About America, Not Europe
“The future outlook for palladium is excellent as it continues to benefit from positive supply and demand fundamentals,” he said.
Currently, the global mine supply of palladium is about 6.8 million ounces worldwide, with most of it coming from Russia and South Africa. In North America, Stillwater Mining SWC +1.74% and North American Palladium are the big guns of palladium mining.
Swinoga points out that an increase in palladium supply does not look likely.
“In South Africa, there are issues associated with unions, the tax structure they’re putting in place, infrastructure problems and the electricity price increases [power utility] Eskom is putting in place. A lot of South African companies now are in fact talking about curtailing their production in order to save their balance sheets.”
“You’ve got declining palladium production in Russia. There are no new mines that I’m aware of on the horizon,” said Swinoga, who added that the CPM Group projected for palladium production going forward to be “relatively flat.”
The other remaining supply of palladium is a Russian stockpile from the Cold War era, which reached about 18 million to 20 million ounces. Back in the 1980s, Russia believed it required palladium for cold fusion. However, Swinoga explained that the country started selling off palladium over time when it realized that cold fusion does not really work. The stockpile contributed about 1 million ounces to the market in the last two years, he said.
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BeantwoordenVerwijderen“The good news is that that stockpile as far as we and others are aware, is gone. That the stockpile is not significant anymore is going to be a game changer, with prices being able to rise since then,” Swinoga asserted.
While palladium supply will likely stagnate, demand for the metal is only going to increase, with the primary driver continuing to be the automotive sector, which currently consumes about 60% of world palladium production.
Palladium is used in catalytic converters for gasoline engines, and as Swinoga noted, the growth of car demand in BRIC countries, with citizens there getting increasingly affluent, will only push palladium demand up.
“Credible forecasters such as IHS predict that global vehicle production will increase from about 77 million units to about 100 million units by 2016. Most of that growth is coming from the BRIC economies. China represents about 18 million vehicles per year, but it’s going to rise to about 30 [million] to 40 million vehicles per year by the year 2020,” he said.
“It makes sense. In North America, there are about 700 vehicles per 1,000 people. In China, it’s about 70 vehicles per 1,000 people right now, so there’s lots of room for growth on a per capita basis.”
As BRIC countries further industrialize, they have also gotten increasingly tougher on emission standards. That means a greater need for catalytic convertors, and therefore an increased demand for palladium.
Besides industrial demand, there has also been a rise in investment demand for palladium, Swinoga said. Palladium ETFs, which have only been around since 2007, are now trading in Zurich, London, Japan, and the NYSE. There is a total of about 2 million ounces of palladium in ETFs such as the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares PALL +1.74% and the ETFS White Metals Basket Trust WITE +0.70%
“In terms of price forecasts, both TD Bank and BNP Paribas see the price going over $1,000. Today, palladium is at around $615, so there is lots of room for growth.” Related content: Intermarket Analysis Applied to Gold, Gold Stocks, and Bonds
Sterling Wong is a contributor to Minyanville, based in New York.
Current Market and Economic Conditions
BeantwoordenVerwijderenThe challenging market conditions for the resource sector in general, and precious metals equities in particular, continued from 2012 into the first two months of 2013. This includes PGM-focused equities despite the relative strength of platinum and palladium prices and favourable supply/demand conditions. However, global economic policy continues to have an expansionary and inflationary bias that should be positive for commodities in the long term. The fundamentals for platinum and palladium remain strongly positive with the market expected to be in a deficit situation in 2013.
The junior mining sector is off to a difficult start in 2013 with the S&P TSX Venture Composite Index down 9% year-to-date and the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index down 23% year-to-date. Prophecy Platinum's share price has been relatively stable averaging just over $1/share during this period of negative market sentiment towards junior mining stocks.
Over the past few months, however, the fundamentals associated with our key focus metals, platinum and palladium, have turned significantly more positive toward likely higher future prices. After trading at a discount to the gold price for almost a year and a half, platinum resumed trading at a premium to gold in January of this year. In fact, platinum and palladium have been the best performing precious metals thus far in 2013, with each up 5%, whilst gold is down 5%. The strength in PGMs relative to gold is primarily attributable to an increasing market awareness of the supply threats to platinum and palladium, particularly in South Africa and Zimbabwe.
Compared with gold or silver, the platinum and palladium markets are significantly smaller and mine production is heavily concentrated in high political risk countries. South Africa, Russia and Zimbabwe combined produce over 92% of the world's platinum and 84% of the world's palladium, but this supply has been in decline since 2006. According to Johnson Matthey, a total of 5,840,000 ounces of platinum was mined in 2012, with South Africa accounting for 73% of production and Russia 16%1 with North America accounting for only 6% of global production. South African platinum production in 2012 fell to its lowest levels in 11 years as violence and unrest between mining unions and demands for higher wages disrupted production. The recent and ongoing labour unrest is adding to the challenges already faced by South African platinum mining companies, in terms of depletion and a corresponding increase in deposit depth. The result has been increased production costs and the shutdown of mines that are no longer economical. In January, Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) announced that it would cease operations at two of its South African platinum mines and put another up for sale, resulting in the loss of 14,000 industry jobs.
1http://www.platinum.matthey.com/publications/pgm-market-reviews.
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BeantwoordenVerwijderenThe decline in platinum production in South Africa is likely to continue as cost pressures force even more mine closures and as companies refrain from investing capital into new projects and mine expansions. Social unrest and lower tax revenue also have the potential to further increase the pressure on the South African government to nationalize platinum mines. While the ruling African National Congress party rejected proposals to nationalize mines in favour of higher taxes at its national conference last December, political maneuvering in the lead up to the 2014 general election in South Africa could see this issue be revisited.
In Zimbabwe, the government announced in mid-February that it was nationalizing platinum reserves owned by Zimplats and handing them over to other investors. In addition, the government has given platinum miners two years to build a refinery within Zimbabwe for processing platinum ores. This follows the announcement last year that platinum mining companies would be forced to transfer 51% ownership to local groups. With the hostile investment climate in Zimbabwe, which has the second highest platinum reserves after South Africa, it seems unlikely that significant expansion of production or development of new mines in Zimbabwe is probable.
The palladium market also faces significant supply risks. Russia is currently the largest producer of palladium, accounting for 43% of global production in 2012, with South Africa second at 37% of the 6,570,000 ounces of palladium mined globally in 2012. The majority of Russian palladium production was from Norilsk Nickel, but sales from Russian stockpiles were estimated to be 250,000 ounces in 2012 with indications that the state stockpiles of palladium are close to being depleted. From 2008 to 2011, palladium sales from Russian stockpiles averaged over 900,000 ounces per year, or about 13% of annual global supply. If that supply is exhausted, the palladium market deficit could significantly exceed the deficit currently projected by analysts.
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BeantwoordenVerwijderenThe market had largely ignored this decline over the past several years as PGM demand for use in autocatalysts (a.k.a. catalytic converters) dropped substantially as a result of lower automobile demand following the 2008 financial crisis. Now, however, with automobile demand recovering, supply deficits, that were projected for both platinum and palladium in 2012, are expected to continue into 2013.
From 1980 to 2008, platinum demand grew at an average rate of 5% per year. Demand then dropped 15% in 2009 due to the global economic crisis, primarily because of the decreased demand for autocatalysts. Autocatalyst consumption rebounded in 2010 but is still well below levels from 2008 due to lower automobile demand in Europe. The European automobile market is important for platinum demand due to the much higher proportion of diesel engines which tend to use more platinum than palladium. Rapid growth in automobile sales from emerging economies is anticipated to result in increased platinum and palladium consumption, and is expected to be bolstered by the increased adoption of stricter environmental standards in Asia. Strong automobile demand growth continues in China, which reported a 46% increase in automobile sales in January 2013. Platinum jewellery demand has also been strong due to demand from China and investment demand is also increasing due to investor interest in ETFs like Sprott's recently launched Physical Platinum and Palladium Trust. Due to falling supply the platinum market is anticipated to see a reported 400,000 ounce deficit in 2012 or approximately 7% of global platinum supply.
While platinum demand increases have been somewhat moderated by lower European automobile sales, palladium demand has shown strong growth since 2002 and is now at record levels due in particular to autocatalyst demand and Johnson Matthey estimates the market was at a 915,000 ounce deficit in 2012, or approximately 14% of global palladium supply. Autocatalyst manufacturers have been substituting palladium for platinum as much as possible in the past decade due to the pricing disparity between platinum and palladium. Accordingly, palladium use in autocatalysts is now more than double the amount of platinum used and growth is strong due to the strength in automobile demand in China. That demand is expected to continue to grow rapidly as the number of cars per capita in China increases (it is currently about 85 cars per 1000 people, compared to about 812 cars per 1000 people in the United States), as emission standards improve and as more cars are sold to China's burgeoning middle class. Palladium prices have moved from around 20% of platinum prices to 40% in the past four years due to demand growth for palladium in autocatalysts. This price convergence could continue if Russian palladium stockpiles are close to being depleted.
Based on these factors, we view the fundamentals for the PGM market as being the strongest of all the precious metals. Demand is likely to continue to improve, while supplies are likely to continue the declining trend in response to the structural challenges in South Africa, Russia and Zimbabwe. This background suggests the potential for significant spikes in PGM prices that could be amplified by speculative investments in this relatively small market. Given the lack of substitutes for PGMs in autocatalysts and the relatively low cost of PGMs compared to the total cost of an automobile, demand for PGMs is not likely to subside even with a dramatic increase in platinum and palladium prices.
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BeantwoordenVerwijderenLarge PGM deposits are scarce outside of South Africa, Russia and Zimbabwe. With the improving fundamentals, investor interest in the PGM sector has been increasing, particularly over the past six months. We believe that the market will need to look for alternate sources of PGM supply in geopolitically stable and predictable environments. This may present a positive dynamic for PGM equities in the junior mining sector and particularly companies like Prophecy Platinum with large resources in politically stable countries like Canada, which was ranked 8th in the world in the Fraser Institute's 2012/2013 Survey of Mining Companies.
Platinum and palladium: A fundamental shift
BeantwoordenVerwijderenCasey Research | May 23, 2013
Platinum is a precious metal, as is palladium, though to a lesser degree. However, like silver, both are also industrial metals. Unlike silver, it's their industrial use that is the primary price driver for both platinum and palladium – and that use is undergoing a fundamental shift.
The largest source of demand for platinum and palladium is the automotive industry, for use in autocatalysts. In turn, the fortunes of the auto industry are sensitive to the health of the world's major economies. We've been bearish on platinum-group metals for years, primarily because we weren't convinced a healthy – much less roaring – world economy could be sustained when so many governments continue spending beyond their means.
We reconsidered the market last year, when strikes in South Africa – home to 75% of global platinum production and 95% of known reserves – threatened supplies. But as we wrote last December, the strikes ended without great impact on long-term supply.
Since then, however, the fundamentals of this market have changed. Others may disagree with our economic outlook, which is still bearish, but it's due to supply issues – not demand – that our interest is now drawn to these metals, and particularly to palladium.
Here's a look at global supply against auto-industry demand for both metals.
http://www.mining.com/web/platinum-and-palladium-a-fundamental-shift/?utm_source=digest-en-mining-130523&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=digest
Verwijderenwo 14 aug 2013, 15:00
BeantwoordenVerwijderen'Steun voor prijzen palladium en platinum'
De positieve ontwikkelingen in de Amerikaanse en de Chinese auto-industrie gaan de prijs van palladium ondersteunen. Dat zegt het Simona Gambarini van het Londense ETF Securities. Ook over platinum is Gambarini postief. Volgens ABN Amro moet er echter eerst nog 'speculatieve lucht' uit de prijzen lopen. ,,Een prijsdaling in goud kan de prijzen van deze edelmatelen eerst nog negatief beïnvloeden."
Palladium en platinum - veelgebruikt in de auto-industrie - profiteren van het feit dat zij een sterkere (positieve) samenhang met de economische ontwikkelingen hebben dan andere edelmetalen, betoogt Gambarini.
,,Platinum heeft nog wel een trigger nodig om verder omhoog te gaan. De productieverstoringen in het belangrijke aanbodland Zuid-Afrika zijn er wel, maar zijn tot dusverre achtergebleven bij de verwachtingen."
Beide edelmetalen zijn belangrijk voor katalysatoren in auto's. Ook Rusland is een belangrijke producent. Palladium wordt bijvoorbeeld ook gebruikt in de tandartsindustrie, terwijl een behoorlijk deel van de platinumproductie jaarlijks ook naar de juwelenindustrie gaat.
Speculatie
Maar volgens ABN Amro, moet er eerst nog wat 'speculatieve lucht' uit de prijzen van palladium en platinum lopen. ,,De fundamenten zijn wel positief." En traditioneel zouden de prijzen van deze metalen op termijn meer kunnen profiteren van een sterke economische opleving dan bijvoorbeeld zilver, hoewel dit metaal ook in de industrie wordt gebruikt.
Edelmetaalspecialist Georgette Boele van ABN Amro: ,,Dit soort uitspraken worden al langer gedaan, dat palladium en platinum flink zouden profiteren van een groei in de auto-industrie. De fundamenten zijn inderdaad, aan de vraag- en aanbodkant, prima. Ook nu er productieverstoringen dreigen bij mijnen in Zuid-Afrika."
,,Maar er zit nog speculatieve lucht in", zegt Boele. ,,De door ons verwachte prijsdaling in goud zou wel eens een prijsdrukkend effect kunnen hebben op palladium en platinum", aldus Boele.
Europese automarkt
Boele, die voor deze metalen een herstel vanaf 2014 verwacht, is positever over platinum dan over palladium. ,,Platinum is belangrijk voor dieselauto's, wat zorgt voor blootstelling aan de Europese automarkt. Deze kan, meer dan andere automarkten, wel eens zeer positief gaan verrassen. Bij andere automarkten zijn verwachtingen wel hoger."
http://www.telegraaf.nl/dft/beleggingsfondsen/beleggingsfondsen_grondstoffen/21809302/___Steun_voor_prijzen_palladium_en_platinum___.html